{
 "updated": "2026-09-23T15:54:49+00:00",
 "method": "bid/ask midpoint on each exchange; gap = polymarket - kalshi",
 "events": [
  {
   "key": "fed-october",
   "title": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "fed",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.05,
   "end_date": "2026-10-29",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Cut 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0025,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0075
    },
    {
     "name": "Cut 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.0055,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0045
    },
    {
     "name": "No change",
     "polymarket": 0.315,
     "kalshi": 0.315,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.675,
     "kalshi": 0.695,
     "gap": -0.02
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0075,
     "kalshi": 0.015,
     "gap": -0.0075
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "fed-december",
   "title": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632",
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "fed",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.05,
   "end_date": "2026-12-10",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Cut 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0045,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0055
    },
    {
     "name": "Cut 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.0115,
     "kalshi": 0.015,
     "gap": -0.0035
    },
    {
     "name": "No change",
     "polymarket": 0.275,
     "kalshi": 0.275,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 25 bp",
     "polymarket": 0.705,
     "kalshi": 0.705,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Hike 50 bp or more",
     "polymarket": 0.0195,
     "kalshi": 0.015,
     "gap": 0.0045
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "house-2026",
   "title": "Which party wins the House in 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "CONTROLH-2026",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "party",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2027-01-05",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Democrats",
     "polymarket": 0.925,
     "kalshi": 0.9115,
     "gap": 0.0135
    },
    {
     "name": "Republicans",
     "polymarket": 0.075,
     "kalshi": 0.0875,
     "gap": -0.0125
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "senate-2026",
   "title": "Which party wins the Senate in 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "CONTROLS-2026",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "party",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2027-01-05",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Democrats",
     "polymarket": 0.655,
     "kalshi": 0.645,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Republicans",
     "polymarket": 0.345,
     "kalshi": 0.365,
     "gap": -0.02
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "president-2028-party",
   "title": "Which party wins the 2028 presidential election",
   "polymarket_event": "which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
   "kalshi_event": "KXPRESPARTY-2028",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "party",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2029-01-21",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Democrats",
     "polymarket": 0.66,
     "kalshi": 0.585,
     "gap": 0.075
    },
    {
     "name": "Republicans",
     "polymarket": 0.345,
     "kalshi": 0.415,
     "gap": -0.07
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "brazil-2026",
   "title": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "polymarket_event": "brazil-presidential-election",
   "kalshi_event": "KXBRPRES-26",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "exact",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
     "polymarket": 0.5885,
     "kalshi": 0.575,
     "gap": 0.0135
    },
    {
     "name": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
     "polymarket": 0.405,
     "kalshi": 0.435,
     "gap": -0.03
    },
    {
     "name": "Augusto Cury",
     "polymarket": 0.0005,
     "kalshi": 0.01,
     "gap": -0.0095
    },
    {
     "name": "Renan Santos",
     "polymarket": 0.0065,
     "kalshi": 0.007,
     "gap": -0.0005
    },
    {
     "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
     "polymarket": 0.0015,
     "kalshi": 0.002,
     "gap": -0.0005
    },
    {
     "name": "Fernando Haddad",
     "polymarket": 0.0005,
     "kalshi": 0.002,
     "gap": -0.0015
    },
    {
     "name": "Michelle Bolsonaro",
     "polymarket": 0.0005,
     "kalshi": 0.002,
     "gap": -0.0015
    },
    {
     "name": "Eduardo Bolsonaro",
     "polymarket": 0.0005,
     "kalshi": 0.002,
     "gap": -0.0015
    },
    {
     "name": "Ratinho Júnior",
     "polymarket": 0.0005,
     "kalshi": 0.002,
     "gap": -0.0015
    },
    {
     "name": "Aldo Rebelo",
     "polymarket": 0.0005,
     "kalshi": 0.002,
     "gap": -0.0015
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "pro-football-2027",
   "title": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "polymarket_event": "pro-football-2027-champion-20260729185915366",
   "kalshi_event": "KXSB-27",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "team",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.03,
   "end_date": "2027-04-01",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Los Angeles Rams",
     "polymarket": 0.125,
     "kalshi": 0.125,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "Buffalo Bills",
     "polymarket": 0.115,
     "kalshi": 0.115,
     "gap": 0.0
    },
    {
     "name": "San Francisco 49ers",
     "polymarket": 0.0795,
     "kalshi": 0.085,
     "gap": -0.0055
    },
    {
     "name": "Seattle Seahawks",
     "polymarket": 0.085,
     "kalshi": 0.075,
     "gap": 0.01
    },
    {
     "name": "Kansas City Chiefs",
     "polymarket": 0.0765,
     "kalshi": 0.075,
     "gap": 0.0015
    },
    {
     "name": "Baltimore Ravens",
     "polymarket": 0.062,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": -0.003
    },
    {
     "name": "Cincinnati Bengals",
     "polymarket": 0.0565,
     "kalshi": 0.065,
     "gap": -0.0085
    },
    {
     "name": "Philadelphia Eagles",
     "polymarket": 0.046,
     "kalshi": 0.055,
     "gap": -0.009
    },
    {
     "name": "New England Patriots",
     "polymarket": 0.0385,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": 0.0035
    },
    {
     "name": "Denver Broncos",
     "polymarket": 0.0375,
     "kalshi": 0.035,
     "gap": 0.0025
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "openai-anthropic-ipo",
   "title": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first",
   "polymarket_event": "will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first",
   "kalshi_event": "KXOAIANTH-40",
   "note": null,
   "kind": "exact",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.04,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Anthropic",
     "polymarket": 0.9475,
     "kalshi": 0.925,
     "gap": 0.0225
    },
    {
     "name": "OpenAI",
     "polymarket": 0.0525,
     "kalshi": 0.085,
     "gap": -0.0325
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "us-recession-2026",
   "title": "US recession by the end of 2026",
   "polymarket_event": "us-recession-by-end-of-2026",
   "kalshi_event": "KXRECSSNBER-26",
   "note": "The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.",
   "kind": "binary",
   "polymarket_fee_rate": 0.05,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31",
   "outcomes": [
    {
     "name": "Yes",
     "polymarket": 0.085,
     "kalshi": 0.055,
     "gap": 0.03
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds comparison: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi/"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi public trade API; not affiliated with either."
}