{
 "updated": "2026-09-24T18:11:32+00:00",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-odds/"
 },
 "meetings": [
  {
   "meeting": "October 27–28, 2026",
   "market": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
   "implied_change_bps": 16.46,
   "outcomes": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.0025,
    "Cut 25": 0.0055,
    "No change": 0.335,
    "Hike 25": 0.655,
    "Hike 50+": 0.0095
   },
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT",
   "kalshi": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.01,
    "Cut 25": 0.01,
    "No change": 0.33999999999999997,
    "Hike 25": 0.645,
    "Hike 50+": 0.015
   }
  },
  {
   "meeting": "December 8–9, 2026",
   "market": "fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632",
   "implied_change_bps": 18.02,
   "outcomes": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.0045,
    "Cut 25": 0.0135,
    "No change": 0.265,
    "Hike 25": 0.715,
    "Hike 50+": 0.021
   },
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-26DEC",
   "kalshi": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.01,
    "Cut 25": 0.015,
    "No change": 0.235,
    "Hike 25": 0.705,
    "Hike 50+": 0.015
   }
  },
  {
   "meeting": "January 26–27, 2027",
   "market": "fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502",
   "implied_change_bps": 6.52,
   "outcomes": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.03,
    "Cut 25": 0.05,
    "No change": 0.565,
    "Hike 25": 0.315,
    "Hike 50+": 0.026
   },
   "kalshi_event": "KXFEDDECISION-27JAN",
   "kalshi": {
    "Cut 50+": 0.01,
    "Cut 25": 0.025,
    "No change": 0.545,
    "Hike 25": 0.345,
    "Hike 50+": 0.015
   }
  }
 ],
 "path": [
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Pause–Hike",
   "price": 0.25
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Pause–Pause",
   "price": 0.075
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Hike–Hike",
   "price": 0.46
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Hike–Hike–Pause",
   "price": 0.205
  },
  {
   "outcome": "Other",
   "price": 0.0225
  }
 ],
 "cuts": [
  {
   "outcome": "0 (0 bps)",
   "price": 0.967
  },
  {
   "outcome": "1 (25 bps)",
   "price": 0.0115
  }
 ],
 "hikes": [],
 "year_end": [
  {
   "outcome": "3.5%",
   "price": 0.016
  },
  {
   "outcome": "4.0%",
   "price": 0.06
  },
  {
   "outcome": "4.25%",
   "price": 0.325
  },
  {
   "outcome": "≥ 4.5%",
   "price": 0.526
  }
 ],
 "first_cut": [
  {
   "outcome": "December 2026 Meeting",
   "price": 0.0305
  },
  {
   "outcome": "January 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.095
  },
  {
   "outcome": "March 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.235
  },
  {
   "outcome": "April 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.39
  },
  {
   "outcome": "June 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.41
  },
  {
   "outcome": "July 2027 Meeting",
   "price": 0.475
  }
 ]
}