{
 "slug": "ar-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ar-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ar-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-06T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 20429.49,
 "volume_24h": 546.42,
 "liquidity": 124388.19,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Republican 35-40%",
   "probability": 0.335,
   "change_24h": 0.1,
   "volume": 3229.79,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 40-45%",
   "probability": 0.275,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 5267.53,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 30-35%",
   "probability": 0.14,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume": 942.41,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.12,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume": 815.99,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 50-55%",
   "probability": 0.0915,
   "change_24h": 0.0165,
   "volume": 994.24,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 45-50%",
   "probability": 0.075,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume": 4234.83,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 15-25%",
   "probability": 0.065,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 714.85,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 55%+",
   "probability": 0.051,
   "change_24h": 0.0085,
   "volume": 1048.33,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 0-15%",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 2542.8,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat Wins",
   "probability": 0.005,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 638.72,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Republican 35-40%": [
   [
    1788696016,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1788739231,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788782417,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788825615,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1788868817,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1788912022,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788955219,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1788998417,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1789041617,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1789084818,
    0.315
   ],
   [
    1789128020,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1789171218,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1789214419,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1789257617,
    0.33
   ],
   [
    1789300821,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1789344015,
    0.32
   ],
   [
    1789387214,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1789430414,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1789473614,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1789516815,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1789560020,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1789603216,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1789646416,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1789689619,
    0.345
   ],
   [
    1789732819,
    0.36
   ],
   [
    1789776019,
    0.36
   ],
   [
    1789819219,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1789862419,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789905616,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1789948816,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789992012,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790035216,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790078416,
    0.315
   ],
   [
    1790121617,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790164822,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1790208028,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790251218,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790294420,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790337617,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790380817,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1790424016,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1790467216,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790510416,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790553631,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790596816,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790640017,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1790683219,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790726419,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790769618,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790812820,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790856018,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790899218,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790942418,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790985621,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791028818,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791072018,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791115220,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791158421,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791201620,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791244820,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791248898,
    0.34
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 40-45%": [
   [
    1788696016,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1788739231,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1788782417,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1788825615,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1788868817,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1788912022,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1788955219,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1788998417,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1789041617,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1789084818,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1789128019,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1789171218,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1789214419,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789257617,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789300820,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789344015,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1789387214,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1789430414,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1789473614,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1789516815,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1789560020,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1789603216,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1789646415,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1789689619,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789732819,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1789776019,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1789819219,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1789862419,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1789905616,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1789948815,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1789992012,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1790035216,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790078416,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790121617,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790164821,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790208028,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1790251217,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790294420,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790337616,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790380817,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790424016,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790467216,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790510415,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790553630,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790596816,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790640017,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790683218,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790726419,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790769618,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790812819,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790856018,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790899218,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790942418,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790985621,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791028818,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791072018,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791115219,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791158421,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791201620,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791244820,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791248898,
    0.275
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 30-35%": [
   [
    1788696016,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1788739231,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1788782417,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1788825615,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1788868817,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1788912022,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1788955219,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1788998417,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1789041617,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1789084819,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1789128020,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1789171219,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789214419,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789257617,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789300821,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789344015,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789387214,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789430414,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789473614,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789516815,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789560020,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789603216,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789646416,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789689619,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1789732820,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1789776020,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1789819220,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1789862419,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789905616,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1789948816,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1789992012,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1790035216,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1790078416,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1790121618,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1790164822,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1790208029,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790251218,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790294421,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790337617,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790380817,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1790424016,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1790467216,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790510416,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1790553631,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790596816,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1790640017,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1790683219,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790726419,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790769618,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790812820,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790856019,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1790899218,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1790942418,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1790985621,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1791028818,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1791072018,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791115220,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791158421,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791201620,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1791244820,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791248898,
    0.14
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ar-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ar-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}
