{
 "slug": "ar-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ar-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ar-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-11T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 21900.15,
 "volume_24h": 3763.98,
 "liquidity": 129949.17,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Republican 35-40%",
   "probability": 0.35,
   "change_24h": 0.11,
   "volume": 4613.66,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 30-35%",
   "probability": 0.3245,
   "change_24h": 0.0835,
   "volume": 7838.27,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.116,
   "change_24h": -0.0525,
   "volume": 570.43,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 40-45%",
   "probability": 0.111,
   "change_24h": 0.0575,
   "volume": 4273.8,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 15-25%",
   "probability": 0.0595,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume": 1339.57,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 0-15%",
   "probability": 0.0555,
   "change_24h": 0.003,
   "volume": 311.07,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 45-50%",
   "probability": 0.0395,
   "change_24h": -0.042,
   "volume": 1823.53,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat Wins",
   "probability": 0.026,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume": 269.99,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 50-55%",
   "probability": 0.025,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume": 368.8,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 55%+",
   "probability": 0.018,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume": 491.04,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Republican 35-40%": [
   [
    1789128025,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1789171223,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789214425,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1789257622,
    0.57
   ],
   [
    1789300825,
    0.565
   ],
   [
    1789344019,
    0.53
   ],
   [
    1789387217,
    0.56
   ],
   [
    1789430418,
    0.465
   ],
   [
    1789473618,
    0.315
   ],
   [
    1789516819,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789560029,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1789603221,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1789646421,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1789689624,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789732825,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789776026,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789819226,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789862424,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789905621,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789948821,
    0.39
   ],
   [
    1789992016,
    0.375
   ],
   [
    1790035221,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790078421,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790121623,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790164833,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790208034,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790251224,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790294427,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790337622,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790380821,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790424020,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790467221,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790510421,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790553635,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790596820,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790640022,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790683224,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790726423,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790769623,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790812826,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1790856025,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1790899224,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790942423,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790985627,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791028825,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1791072023,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791115225,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1791158428,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1791201627,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1791244826,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1791288031,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1791331231,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1791374454,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1791417653,
    0.405
   ],
   [
    1791504056,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1791547256,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1791590432,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1791633638,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1791676839,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1791680716,
    0.35
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 30-35%": [
   [
    1789128023,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1789171221,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1789214422,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1789257620,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1789300823,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1789344017,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1789387215,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1789430416,
    0.334
   ],
   [
    1789473616,
    0.471
   ],
   [
    1789516817,
    0.466
   ],
   [
    1789560025,
    0.4365
   ],
   [
    1789603219,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1789646419,
    0.3135
   ],
   [
    1789689622,
    0.2845
   ],
   [
    1789732823,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1789776023,
    0.238
   ],
   [
    1789819223,
    0.237
   ],
   [
    1789862422,
    0.2645
   ],
   [
    1789905619,
    0.2285
   ],
   [
    1789948819,
    0.329
   ],
   [
    1789992014,
    0.242
   ],
   [
    1790035219,
    0.1935
   ],
   [
    1790078419,
    0.2005
   ],
   [
    1790121621,
    0.1955
   ],
   [
    1790164829,
    0.2855
   ],
   [
    1790208032,
    0.233
   ],
   [
    1790251221,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790294424,
    0.2385
   ],
   [
    1790337620,
    0.2675
   ],
   [
    1790380819,
    0.353
   ],
   [
    1790424018,
    0.2885
   ],
   [
    1790467219,
    0.286
   ],
   [
    1790510418,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790553633,
    0.298
   ],
   [
    1790596818,
    0.3125
   ],
   [
    1790640020,
    0.313
   ],
   [
    1790683222,
    0.313
   ],
   [
    1790726421,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1790769621,
    0.291
   ],
   [
    1790812823,
    0.2895
   ],
   [
    1790856022,
    0.2905
   ],
   [
    1790899221,
    0.293
   ],
   [
    1790942421,
    0.289
   ],
   [
    1790985625,
    0.2925
   ],
   [
    1791028822,
    0.2885
   ],
   [
    1791072021,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791115223,
    0.2845
   ],
   [
    1791158425,
    0.2855
   ],
   [
    1791201624,
    0.2855
   ],
   [
    1791244824,
    0.2855
   ],
   [
    1791288028,
    0.283
   ],
   [
    1791331227,
    0.271
   ],
   [
    1791374445,
    0.266
   ],
   [
    1791417644,
    0.2765
   ],
   [
    1791460855,
    0.2765
   ],
   [
    1791504046,
    0.247
   ],
   [
    1791547247,
    0.247
   ],
   [
    1791590429,
    0.241
   ],
   [
    1791633634,
    0.2405
   ],
   [
    1791676835,
    0.3245
   ],
   [
    1791680715,
    0.3245
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 25-30%": [
   [
    1789128025,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1789171223,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1789214425,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1789257622,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1789300825,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1789344018,
    0.053
   ],
   [
    1789387217,
    0.0745
   ],
   [
    1789430417,
    0.047
   ],
   [
    1789473618,
    0.0635
   ],
   [
    1789516818,
    0.055
   ],
   [
    1789560029,
    0.071
   ],
   [
    1789603221,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789646420,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789689624,
    0.0595
   ],
   [
    1789732825,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789776025,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789819226,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789862424,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789905621,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789948821,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1789992016,
    0.074
   ],
   [
    1790035221,
    0.083
   ],
   [
    1790078421,
    0.0795
   ],
   [
    1790121623,
    0.0795
   ],
   [
    1790164833,
    0.0795
   ],
   [
    1790208034,
    0.076
   ],
   [
    1790251223,
    0.1055
   ],
   [
    1790294427,
    0.3085
   ],
   [
    1790337621,
    0.1675
   ],
   [
    1790380821,
    0.204
   ],
   [
    1790424020,
    0.1315
   ],
   [
    1790467221,
    0.1305
   ],
   [
    1790510420,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1790553635,
    0.161
   ],
   [
    1790596820,
    0.1625
   ],
   [
    1790640022,
    0.1585
   ],
   [
    1790683224,
    0.159
   ],
   [
    1790726423,
    0.1765
   ],
   [
    1790769623,
    0.1755
   ],
   [
    1790812825,
    0.1785
   ],
   [
    1790856024,
    0.179
   ],
   [
    1790899223,
    0.182
   ],
   [
    1790942423,
    0.1825
   ],
   [
    1790985627,
    0.168
   ],
   [
    1791028825,
    0.172
   ],
   [
    1791072023,
    0.1585
   ],
   [
    1791115225,
    0.1765
   ],
   [
    1791158428,
    0.1585
   ],
   [
    1791201627,
    0.193
   ],
   [
    1791244826,
    0.1625
   ],
   [
    1791288030,
    0.1315
   ],
   [
    1791331230,
    0.1965
   ],
   [
    1791374453,
    0.209
   ],
   [
    1791417652,
    0.244
   ],
   [
    1791504055,
    0.206
   ],
   [
    1791547256,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1791590432,
    0.1465
   ],
   [
    1791633638,
    0.149
   ],
   [
    1791676839,
    0.1945
   ],
   [
    1791680716,
    0.123
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ar-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ar-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}