{
 "slug": "arkansas-senate-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/arkansas-senate-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/arkansas-senate-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-11-07T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 32245.45,
 "volume_24h": 29.55,
 "liquidity": 29217.64,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Republican 10-15%",
   "probability": 0.939,
   "change_24h": -0.0085,
   "volume": 7320.57,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 0-5%",
   "probability": 0.017,
   "change_24h": -0.029,
   "volume": 3605.29,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 15-20%",
   "probability": 0.015,
   "change_24h": 0.002,
   "volume": 11153.79,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 5-10%",
   "probability": 0.007,
   "change_24h": -0.003,
   "volume": 2301.03,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 20-25%",
   "probability": 0.0065,
   "change_24h": 0.002,
   "volume": 2512.3,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.0045,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 931.34,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 35-40%",
   "probability": 0.004,
   "change_24h": 0.001,
   "volume": 896.96,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat Wins",
   "probability": 0.0035,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume": 1860.17,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 40%+",
   "probability": 0.003,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 812.94,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 30-35%",
   "probability": 0.0025,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume": 851.06,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Republican 10-15%": [
   [
    1791417658,
    0.2875
   ],
   [
    1791590434,
    0.2875
   ],
   [
    1791633640,
    0.2875
   ],
   [
    1791676842,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1791720042,
    0.2795
   ],
   [
    1791763251,
    0.316
   ],
   [
    1791806439,
    0.312
   ],
   [
    1791849646,
    0.3185
   ],
   [
    1791892843,
    0.3235
   ],
   [
    1791936044,
    0.323
   ],
   [
    1791979257,
    0.3235
   ],
   [
    1792065650,
    0.3295
   ],
   [
    1792108848,
    0.3295
   ],
   [
    1792152049,
    0.3295
   ],
   [
    1792195255,
    0.3295
   ],
   [
    1792238451,
    0.3295
   ],
   [
    1792368047,
    0.3375
   ],
   [
    1792411247,
    0.341
   ],
   [
    1792454447,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792497651,
    0.3355
   ],
   [
    1792540852,
    0.339
   ],
   [
    1792584053,
    0.3365
   ],
   [
    1792670453,
    0.336
   ],
   [
    1792756850,
    0.3325
   ],
   [
    1792886409,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792929648,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1793016039,
    0.341
   ],
   [
    1793145650,
    0.3455
   ],
   [
    1793275254,
    0.156
   ],
   [
    1793318454,
    0.144
   ],
   [
    1793534451,
    0.0895
   ],
   [
    1793577650,
    0.161
   ],
   [
    1793620851,
    0.137
   ],
   [
    1793664040,
    0.2245
   ],
   [
    1793707257,
    0.2475
   ],
   [
    1793750445,
    0.1555
   ],
   [
    1793793647,
    0.602
   ],
   [
    1793836857,
    0.7835
   ],
   [
    1793880047,
    0.5635
   ],
   [
    1793923249,
    0.947
   ],
   [
    1793966449,
    0.9395
   ],
   [
    1794009649,
    0.939
   ],
   [
    1794016410,
    0.939
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 0-5%": [
   [
    1791374455,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791417653,
    0.077
   ],
   [
    1791504056,
    0.1085
   ],
   [
    1791547257,
    0.1085
   ],
   [
    1791590432,
    0.098
   ],
   [
    1791633638,
    0.0855
   ],
   [
    1791676840,
    0.0845
   ],
   [
    1791720040,
    0.0855
   ],
   [
    1791763249,
    0.077
   ],
   [
    1791806436,
    0.0765
   ],
   [
    1791849643,
    0.0995
   ],
   [
    1791892841,
    0.0785
   ],
   [
    1791936042,
    0.0945
   ],
   [
    1791979254,
    0.0665
   ],
   [
    1792065647,
    0.0575
   ],
   [
    1792108845,
    0.0645
   ],
   [
    1792152046,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1792195251,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1792238447,
    0.0695
   ],
   [
    1792368044,
    0.039
   ],
   [
    1792411244,
    0.0505
   ],
   [
    1792454444,
    0.049
   ],
   [
    1792497647,
    0.0495
   ],
   [
    1792540848,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1792584049,
    0.0855
   ],
   [
    1792670449,
    0.072
   ],
   [
    1792756847,
    0.0645
   ],
   [
    1792800057,
    0.0575
   ],
   [
    1792886405,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1792929644,
    0.092
   ],
   [
    1793016036,
    0.088
   ],
   [
    1793102457,
    0.0895
   ],
   [
    1793145646,
    0.1005
   ],
   [
    1793275249,
    0.113
   ],
   [
    1793318450,
    0.1295
   ],
   [
    1793448058,
    0.1175
   ],
   [
    1793534447,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1793577645,
    0.027
   ],
   [
    1793620846,
    0.018
   ],
   [
    1793664037,
    0.018
   ],
   [
    1793707253,
    0.056
   ],
   [
    1793750442,
    0.0825
   ],
   [
    1793793643,
    0.0155
   ],
   [
    1793836854,
    0.0155
   ],
   [
    1793880043,
    0.4135
   ],
   [
    1793923245,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1793966445,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1794009645,
    0.017
   ],
   [
    1794016410,
    0.017
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 15-20%": [
   [
    1791374438,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791417638,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791460848,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791504039,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791547240,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791590426,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1791633632,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791676832,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791720032,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791763242,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791806429,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791849635,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791892832,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791936033,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1791979244,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1792022449,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1792065634,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1792108834,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1792152035,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792195240,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792238435,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1792324848,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1792368033,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1792411232,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1792454433,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1792497635,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1792540836,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1792584036,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1792670436,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1792713652,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1792756837,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792800047,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792929633,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1793016028,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1793059252,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1793102444,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1793145634,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1793188847,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1793275235,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1793318435,
    0.08
   ],
   [
    1793361647,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1793404853,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1793448042,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1793491245,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1793534432,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1793577631,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1793620832,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1793664027,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1793707243,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1793750431,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1793793631,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1793836842,
    0.045
   ],
   [
    1793880031,
    0.037
   ],
   [
    1793923232,
    0.013
   ],
   [
    1793966432,
    0.015
   ],
   [
    1794009633,
    0.015
   ],
   [
    1794016408,
    0.015
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/arkansas-senate-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/arkansas-senate-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}