{
 "slug": "az-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/az-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-11-07T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 25458.96,
 "volume_24h": 0.0,
 "liquidity": 4922.02,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrat 6-9%",
   "probability": 0.485,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume": 5503.21,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 9-12%",
   "probability": 0.43,
   "change_24h": -0.0045,
   "volume": 3315.37,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 3-6%",
   "probability": 0.415,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 3283.3,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 12-15%",
   "probability": 0.413,
   "change_24h": 0.2365,
   "volume": 1072.78,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 0-3%",
   "probability": 0.4125,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume": 1634.15,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 15-18%",
   "probability": 0.4085,
   "change_24h": 0.2255,
   "volume": 4190.74,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 3-6%",
   "probability": 0.405,
   "change_24h": 0.343,
   "volume": 1780.05,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 18%+",
   "probability": 0.3955,
   "change_24h": 0.033,
   "volume": 466.41,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 6%+",
   "probability": 0.015,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 3045.82,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 0-3%",
   "probability": 0.0135,
   "change_24h": 0.011,
   "volume": 1167.14,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrat 6-9%": [
   [
    1791374420,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791417621,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791460830,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791504020,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791547220,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791590419,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791633622,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791676822,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791720022,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791763233,
    0.115
   ],
   [
    1791806418,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1791849624,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1791892820,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1791936021,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1791979232,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1792022436,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1792065620,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1792108821,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1792152021,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1792195226,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792238420,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1792281647,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1792324834,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1792368019,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792411218,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1792454419,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792497620,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1792540820,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792584020,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792670420,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1792713636,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1792756825,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792800036,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1792929619,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792972855,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793016019,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1793059241,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1793102429,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1793145620,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1793188831,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1793275218,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1793318419,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1793361630,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1793404836,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1793448024,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793491229,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1793534416,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1793577615,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1793620816,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1793664017,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1793707231,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1793750418,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1793793618,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1793836830,
    0.32
   ],
   [
    1793880017,
    0.445
   ],
   [
    1793923219,
    0.475
   ],
   [
    1793966417,
    0.5
   ],
   [
    1794009619,
    0.485
   ],
   [
    1794016463,
    0.485
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 9-12%": [
   [
    1791374445,
    0.0835
   ],
   [
    1791417645,
    0.081
   ],
   [
    1791460856,
    0.086
   ],
   [
    1791504047,
    0.0805
   ],
   [
    1791547248,
    0.108
   ],
   [
    1791590429,
    0.0855
   ],
   [
    1791633635,
    0.092
   ],
   [
    1791676836,
    0.083
   ],
   [
    1791720036,
    0.0825
   ],
   [
    1791763245,
    0.0975
   ],
   [
    1791806432,
    0.1175
   ],
   [
    1791849639,
    0.079
   ],
   [
    1791892836,
    0.1105
   ],
   [
    1791936037,
    0.1165
   ],
   [
    1791979249,
    0.109
   ],
   [
    1792022454,
    0.1105
   ],
   [
    1792065640,
    0.1105
   ],
   [
    1792108839,
    0.1095
   ],
   [
    1792152040,
    0.1045
   ],
   [
    1792195245,
    0.1085
   ],
   [
    1792238441,
    0.1095
   ],
   [
    1792324853,
    0.1055
   ],
   [
    1792368038,
    0.1075
   ],
   [
    1792411238,
    0.1105
   ],
   [
    1792454438,
    0.1235
   ],
   [
    1792497641,
    0.1045
   ],
   [
    1792540841,
    0.1055
   ],
   [
    1792584041,
    0.1045
   ],
   [
    1792670442,
    0.1275
   ],
   [
    1792713658,
    0.131
   ],
   [
    1792756842,
    0.1285
   ],
   [
    1792800052,
    0.1485
   ],
   [
    1792929638,
    0.169
   ],
   [
    1793016032,
    0.1875
   ],
   [
    1793059256,
    0.1755
   ],
   [
    1793102450,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1793145640,
    0.2115
   ],
   [
    1793188854,
    0.2005
   ],
   [
    1793275241,
    0.2365
   ],
   [
    1793318442,
    0.174
   ],
   [
    1793361654,
    0.1775
   ],
   [
    1793448050,
    0.1715
   ],
   [
    1793491252,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793534439,
    0.179
   ],
   [
    1793577637,
    0.1845
   ],
   [
    1793620839,
    0.187
   ],
   [
    1793664032,
    0.192
   ],
   [
    1793707248,
    0.1925
   ],
   [
    1793750436,
    0.1455
   ],
   [
    1793793637,
    0.446
   ],
   [
    1793836848,
    0.4585
   ],
   [
    1793880037,
    0.418
   ],
   [
    1793923238,
    0.441
   ],
   [
    1793966438,
    0.425
   ],
   [
    1794009638,
    0.43
   ],
   [
    1794016465,
    0.43
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 3-6%": [
   [
    1791374454,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791417652,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791504055,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791547256,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791590432,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1791633638,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791676839,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791720040,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1791763249,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791806436,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1791849643,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791892840,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1791936041,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1791979253,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1792022459,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792065646,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1792108844,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792152045,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1792195250,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792238447,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1792324859,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792368043,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792411243,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792454443,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792497646,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792540848,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1792584048,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1792670448,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1792756846,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1792800056,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1792886404,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1792929643,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1793016036,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1793102456,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1793145646,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1793275248,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1793318449,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1793448057,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1793491259,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1793534446,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1793577644,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1793620845,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1793664036,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1793707253,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1793750441,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1793793643,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1793836853,
    0.45
   ],
   [
    1793880042,
    0.45
   ],
   [
    1793923244,
    0.425
   ],
   [
    1793966444,
    0.405
   ],
   [
    1794009644,
    0.415
   ],
   [
    1794016466,
    0.415
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/az-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/az-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}