{
 "slug": "ct-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "CT-03 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ct-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ct-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-11-07T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 23765.76,
 "volume_24h": 166.03,
 "liquidity": 22408.92,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrat 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.55,
   "change_24h": 0.36,
   "volume": 4111.86,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 20-25%",
   "probability": 0.405,
   "change_24h": -0.055,
   "volume": 4216.49,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 10-15%",
   "probability": 0.047,
   "change_24h": 0.033,
   "volume": 1098.72,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 15-20%",
   "probability": 0.0215,
   "change_24h": -0.3675,
   "volume": 1907.87,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 35%+",
   "probability": 0.0205,
   "change_24h": -0.0975,
   "volume": 2918.89,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 30-35%",
   "probability": 0.0195,
   "change_24h": -0.1705,
   "volume": 6451.14,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican Wins",
   "probability": 0.0155,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 880.17,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 5-10%",
   "probability": 0.002,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 1469.0,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 0-5%",
   "probability": 0.0005,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 711.63,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrat 25-30%": [
   [
    1791374452,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791417651,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1791504054,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1791547255,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1791590431,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791633637,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1791676839,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1791720039,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791763248,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1791806435,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791849642,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1791892840,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791936041,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791979253,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1792022458,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792065645,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792108843,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792152045,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792195250,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792238446,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1792324858,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792368042,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792411242,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792454443,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792497646,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792540847,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792584047,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792670447,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1792756846,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1792800056,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792886402,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1792929643,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1793016035,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1793102456,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1793145645,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1793275247,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1793318448,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1793448056,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1793491258,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1793534445,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793577643,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1793620844,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1793664036,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1793707252,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1793750441,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1793793642,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1793836852,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793880042,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793923243,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1793966443,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1794009643,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1794016409,
    0.55
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 20-25%": [
   [
    1791417658,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1791590434,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791633640,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1791676842,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1791720042,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1791763251,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1791806439,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791849646,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1791892843,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791936044,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791979257,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792065650,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792108848,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792152049,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1792195255,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792238451,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792368047,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792411247,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792454447,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792497651,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792540852,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792584053,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792670453,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792756850,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792886409,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792929648,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1793016039,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1793145650,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1793232000,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1793275254,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1793318454,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1793534451,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1793577650,
    0.345
   ],
   [
    1793620851,
    0.36
   ],
   [
    1793664040,
    0.345
   ],
   [
    1793707257,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1793750445,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1793793647,
    0.445
   ],
   [
    1793836857,
    0.35
   ],
   [
    1793880047,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1793923249,
    0.455
   ],
   [
    1793966449,
    0.43
   ],
   [
    1794009649,
    0.515
   ],
   [
    1794016410,
    0.405
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 10-15%": [
   [
    1791374454,
    0.06
   ],
   [
    1791417653,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791504056,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1791547256,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1791590432,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1791633638,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1791676839,
    0.06
   ],
   [
    1791720040,
    0.065
   ],
   [
    1791763249,
    0.045
   ],
   [
    1791806436,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1791849643,
    0.055
   ],
   [
    1791892841,
    0.055
   ],
   [
    1791936042,
    0.05
   ],
   [
    1791979253,
    0.055
   ],
   [
    1792022459,
    0.065
   ],
   [
    1792065646,
    0.039
   ],
   [
    1792108844,
    0.042
   ],
   [
    1792152046,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792195251,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792238447,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792324859,
    0.041
   ],
   [
    1792368044,
    0.042
   ],
   [
    1792411243,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1792454444,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792497647,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792540848,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1792584049,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792670448,
    0.0385
   ],
   [
    1792756847,
    0.0395
   ],
   [
    1792800057,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792886405,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1792929644,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1793016036,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1793102457,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1793145646,
    0.0405
   ],
   [
    1793275249,
    0.041
   ],
   [
    1793318449,
    0.0415
   ],
   [
    1793448058,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1793534446,
    0.042
   ],
   [
    1793577645,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1793620846,
    0.041
   ],
   [
    1793664037,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1793707253,
    0.039
   ],
   [
    1793750442,
    0.0385
   ],
   [
    1793793643,
    0.0375
   ],
   [
    1793836853,
    0.08
   ],
   [
    1793880043,
    0.0245
   ],
   [
    1793923244,
    0.0225
   ],
   [
    1793966444,
    0.056
   ],
   [
    1794009644,
    0.047
   ],
   [
    1794016409,
    0.042
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ct-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ct-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}