{
 "slug": "il-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "IL-02 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/il-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/il-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-26T12:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 20052.3,
 "volume_24h": 3976.33,
 "liquidity": 132038.6,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrat 40-45%",
   "probability": 0.365,
   "change_24h": 0.13,
   "volume": 6854.44,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 35-40%",
   "probability": 0.29,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume": 3113.64,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 45-50%",
   "probability": 0.2505,
   "change_24h": -0.1875,
   "volume": 4008.75,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 30-35%",
   "probability": 0.0675,
   "change_24h": 0.066,
   "volume": 938.7,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 50-55%",
   "probability": 0.059,
   "change_24h": 0.019,
   "volume": 782.0,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 0-15%",
   "probability": 0.015,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume": 840.5,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 55%+",
   "probability": 0.0115,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 975.18,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 15-25%",
   "probability": 0.007,
   "change_24h": 0.0035,
   "volume": 932.4,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican Wins",
   "probability": 0.005,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume": 617.53,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.0015,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 989.16,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrat 40-45%": [
   [
    1790467218,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790510418,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790553632,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790596818,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790640019,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790683221,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790726421,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1790769620,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790812822,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790856021,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790899220,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790942420,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790985624,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1791028821,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1791072020,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1791115222,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791158424,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1791201623,
    0.33
   ],
   [
    1791244823,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1791288026,
    0.32
   ],
   [
    1791331226,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1791374441,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791417641,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791460851,
    0.36
   ],
   [
    1791504043,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1791547243,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791590428,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791633633,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791676834,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1791720034,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1791763244,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1791806430,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1791849637,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1791892834,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1791936035,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791979246,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1792022451,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792065636,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1792108836,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1792152037,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792195242,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792238438,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1792324850,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792368035,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792411235,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792454435,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1792497637,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1792540838,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1792584038,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792670438,
    0.4
   ],
   [
    1792713654,
    0.315
   ],
   [
    1792756839,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1792800049,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1792929635,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1793016029,
    0.385
   ],
   [
    1793020635,
    0.335
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 35-40%": [
   [
    1790467220,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790510419,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790553634,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790596819,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790640021,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790683223,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1790726422,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1790769622,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790812824,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1790856023,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790899222,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790942422,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790985626,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1791028823,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1791072022,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1791115224,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1791158427,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1791201626,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791244825,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1791288029,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1791331229,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1791374449,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791417648,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791460859,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791504051,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791547252,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791590430,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791633636,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791676837,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791720038,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791763247,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1791806434,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791849641,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1791892838,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1791936039,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791979251,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1792022456,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1792065643,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792108841,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792152043,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792195248,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792238443,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1792324856,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1792368041,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792411240,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792454441,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792497643,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1792540844,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792584045,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792670445,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1792756844,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792800054,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792929641,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1793016033,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1793020635,
    0.29
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 45-50%": [
   [
    1790467217,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790510416,
    0.213
   ],
   [
    1790553631,
    0.2495
   ],
   [
    1790596817,
    0.234
   ],
   [
    1790640018,
    0.233
   ],
   [
    1790683219,
    0.218
   ],
   [
    1790726419,
    0.2435
   ],
   [
    1790769619,
    0.2315
   ],
   [
    1790812821,
    0.237
   ],
   [
    1790856019,
    0.2355
   ],
   [
    1790899219,
    0.234
   ],
   [
    1790942419,
    0.2315
   ],
   [
    1790985622,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791028820,
    0.227
   ],
   [
    1791072019,
    0.2165
   ],
   [
    1791115221,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1791158422,
    0.241
   ],
   [
    1791201621,
    0.253
   ],
   [
    1791244821,
    0.2375
   ],
   [
    1791288025,
    0.204
   ],
   [
    1791331224,
    0.236
   ],
   [
    1791374436,
    0.274
   ],
   [
    1791417636,
    0.2715
   ],
   [
    1791460846,
    0.2575
   ],
   [
    1791504037,
    0.267
   ],
   [
    1791547237,
    0.274
   ],
   [
    1791590425,
    0.249
   ],
   [
    1791633631,
    0.2315
   ],
   [
    1791676831,
    0.2355
   ],
   [
    1791720031,
    0.2545
   ],
   [
    1791763241,
    0.288
   ],
   [
    1791806428,
    0.288
   ],
   [
    1791849634,
    0.2885
   ],
   [
    1791892831,
    0.267
   ],
   [
    1791936032,
    0.258
   ],
   [
    1791979243,
    0.2495
   ],
   [
    1792022448,
    0.2555
   ],
   [
    1792065632,
    0.3935
   ],
   [
    1792108833,
    0.2385
   ],
   [
    1792152034,
    0.2445
   ],
   [
    1792195239,
    0.243
   ],
   [
    1792238434,
    0.324
   ],
   [
    1792281659,
    0.252
   ],
   [
    1792324846,
    0.2415
   ],
   [
    1792368031,
    0.299
   ],
   [
    1792411231,
    0.244
   ],
   [
    1792454431,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1792497633,
    0.321
   ],
   [
    1792540834,
    0.258
   ],
   [
    1792584034,
    0.283
   ],
   [
    1792670434,
    0.256
   ],
   [
    1792713650,
    0.328
   ],
   [
    1792756835,
    0.326
   ],
   [
    1792800046,
    0.321
   ],
   [
    1792929631,
    0.437
   ],
   [
    1793016027,
    0.3005
   ],
   [
    1793020634,
    0.2495
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/il-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/il-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}
