{
 "slug": "israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026",
 "title": "Israel military action against Lebanon?",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026",
 "category": "geopolitics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-05T12:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 25194.43,
 "volume_24h": 5570.0,
 "liquidity": 51554.41,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "October 2",
   "probability": 1.0,
   "change_24h": 0.0245,
   "volume": 3824.53,
   "closed": true
  },
  {
   "name": "October 3",
   "probability": 1.0,
   "change_24h": 0.0595,
   "volume": 1410.81,
   "closed": true
  },
  {
   "name": "October 4",
   "probability": 0.931,
   "change_24h": -0.009,
   "volume": 2815.05,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 31",
   "probability": 0.92,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume": 686.35,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 6",
   "probability": 0.905,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume": 2039.42,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 12",
   "probability": 0.905,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume": 249.25,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 5",
   "probability": 0.8905,
   "change_24h": -0.0245,
   "volume": 1704.56,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 11",
   "probability": 0.89,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume": 548.1,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 10",
   "probability": 0.88,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 317.36,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 8",
   "probability": 0.87,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume": 1343.98,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 28",
   "probability": 0.865,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume": 1608.2,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 14",
   "probability": 0.855,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume": 456.76,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 9",
   "probability": 0.84,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume": 123.1,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 21",
   "probability": 0.82,
   "change_24h": -0.06,
   "volume": 168.21,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 23",
   "probability": 0.75,
   "change_24h": 0.23,
   "volume": 94.5,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 18",
   "probability": 0.745,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume": 120.3,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 16",
   "probability": 0.74,
   "change_24h": -0.11,
   "volume": 63.42,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 19",
   "probability": 0.73,
   "change_24h": 0.165,
   "volume": 3278.93,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 13",
   "probability": 0.73,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume": 188.75,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 29",
   "probability": 0.72,
   "change_24h": 0.23,
   "volume": 267.72,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 20",
   "probability": 0.71,
   "change_24h": 0.425,
   "volume": 142.48,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 25",
   "probability": 0.695,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume": 80.0,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 27",
   "probability": 0.69,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 1076.41,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 17",
   "probability": 0.675,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume": 170.79,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 7",
   "probability": 0.61,
   "change_24h": -0.18,
   "volume": 581.95,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 30",
   "probability": 0.58,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume": 361.83,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 15",
   "probability": 0.525,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume": 313.47,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 22",
   "probability": 0.51,
   "change_24h": -0.385,
   "volume": 511.45,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 24",
   "probability": 0.51,
   "change_24h": -0.06,
   "volume": 359.02,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "October 26",
   "probability": 0.485,
   "change_24h": -0.23,
   "volume": 287.75,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "October 4": [
   [
    1790899224,
    0.745
   ],
   [
    1790942423,
    0.86
   ],
   [
    1790985628,
    0.91
   ],
   [
    1791028826,
    0.91
   ],
   [
    1791072023,
    0.91
   ],
   [
    1791115226,
    0.93
   ],
   [
    1791158429,
    0.9865
   ],
   [
    1791201628,
    0.931
   ],
   [
    1791205338,
    0.931
   ]
  ],
  "October 31": [
   [
    1790899222,
    0.725
   ],
   [
    1790942421,
    0.62
   ],
   [
    1790985625,
    0.71
   ],
   [
    1791028823,
    0.93
   ],
   [
    1791072021,
    0.93
   ],
   [
    1791115224,
    0.935
   ],
   [
    1791158426,
    0.92
   ],
   [
    1791201625,
    0.92
   ],
   [
    1791205337,
    0.92
   ]
  ],
  "October 6": [
   [
    1790899216,
    0.52
   ],
   [
    1790942416,
    0.66
   ],
   [
    1790985620,
    0.855
   ],
   [
    1791028816,
    0.93
   ],
   [
    1791072016,
    0.895
   ],
   [
    1791115218,
    0.885
   ],
   [
    1791158420,
    0.91
   ],
   [
    1791201619,
    0.9
   ],
   [
    1791205335,
    0.905
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-october-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}
