{
 "slug": "md-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "MD-03 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/md-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/md-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-26T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 20914.63,
 "volume_24h": 2487.81,
 "liquidity": 126295.82,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrat 30-35%",
   "probability": 0.349,
   "change_24h": 0.1245,
   "volume": 3607.53,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.219,
   "change_24h": 0.0185,
   "volume": 2946.92,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 35-40%",
   "probability": 0.175,
   "change_24h": -0.235,
   "volume": 3797.03,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 40-45%",
   "probability": 0.1595,
   "change_24h": -0.076,
   "volume": 4804.91,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 20-25%",
   "probability": 0.036,
   "change_24h": -0.0075,
   "volume": 1115.15,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 45%+",
   "probability": 0.031,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 993.76,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican Wins",
   "probability": 0.0035,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 1608.59,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 15-20%",
   "probability": 0.0035,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 627.96,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 0-5%",
   "probability": 0.003,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 589.87,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 5-15%",
   "probability": 0.0015,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 822.91,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrat 30-35%": [
   [
    1790424018,
    0.2845
   ],
   [
    1790467219,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790510418,
    0.2675
   ],
   [
    1790553633,
    0.212
   ],
   [
    1790596818,
    0.2135
   ],
   [
    1790640020,
    0.1895
   ],
   [
    1790683222,
    0.188
   ],
   [
    1790726421,
    0.227
   ],
   [
    1790769621,
    0.248
   ],
   [
    1790812823,
    0.2455
   ],
   [
    1790856022,
    0.209
   ],
   [
    1790899221,
    0.1995
   ],
   [
    1790942421,
    0.2045
   ],
   [
    1790985624,
    0.2405
   ],
   [
    1791028822,
    0.193
   ],
   [
    1791072020,
    0.2155
   ],
   [
    1791115223,
    0.2095
   ],
   [
    1791158425,
    0.208
   ],
   [
    1791201624,
    0.207
   ],
   [
    1791244823,
    0.2135
   ],
   [
    1791288027,
    0.199
   ],
   [
    1791331227,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1791374444,
    0.2955
   ],
   [
    1791417644,
    0.2795
   ],
   [
    1791460854,
    0.292
   ],
   [
    1791504046,
    0.2805
   ],
   [
    1791547246,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1791590429,
    0.273
   ],
   [
    1791633634,
    0.216
   ],
   [
    1791676835,
    0.272
   ],
   [
    1791720035,
    0.0835
   ],
   [
    1791763245,
    0.1365
   ],
   [
    1791806432,
    0.1355
   ],
   [
    1791849638,
    0.2525
   ],
   [
    1791892835,
    0.1665
   ],
   [
    1791936037,
    0.253
   ],
   [
    1791979248,
    0.1035
   ],
   [
    1792022453,
    0.1875
   ],
   [
    1792065639,
    0.1765
   ],
   [
    1792108838,
    0.224
   ],
   [
    1792152039,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1792195244,
    0.2905
   ],
   [
    1792238440,
    0.292
   ],
   [
    1792324852,
    0.3765
   ],
   [
    1792368037,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792411237,
    0.1875
   ],
   [
    1792454437,
    0.1275
   ],
   [
    1792497640,
    0.108
   ],
   [
    1792540840,
    0.108
   ],
   [
    1792584040,
    0.1075
   ],
   [
    1792670441,
    0.2265
   ],
   [
    1792713656,
    0.2335
   ],
   [
    1792756841,
    0.221
   ],
   [
    1792800051,
    0.2365
   ],
   [
    1792929637,
    0.279
   ],
   [
    1792977560,
    0.3385
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 25-30%": [
   [
    1790424016,
    0.212
   ],
   [
    1790467216,
    0.214
   ],
   [
    1790510416,
    0.218
   ],
   [
    1790553631,
    0.2235
   ],
   [
    1790596816,
    0.1635
   ],
   [
    1790640017,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1790683219,
    0.2015
   ],
   [
    1790726419,
    0.178
   ],
   [
    1790769618,
    0.1745
   ],
   [
    1790812820,
    0.2005
   ],
   [
    1790856019,
    0.2105
   ],
   [
    1790899218,
    0.2055
   ],
   [
    1790942418,
    0.2045
   ],
   [
    1790985622,
    0.191
   ],
   [
    1791028819,
    0.1825
   ],
   [
    1791072018,
    0.1885
   ],
   [
    1791115220,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1791158422,
    0.167
   ],
   [
    1791201621,
    0.166
   ],
   [
    1791244820,
    0.179
   ],
   [
    1791288024,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1791331223,
    0.176
   ],
   [
    1791374433,
    0.1665
   ],
   [
    1791417634,
    0.1565
   ],
   [
    1791460844,
    0.152
   ],
   [
    1791504034,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1791547235,
    0.156
   ],
   [
    1791590425,
    0.1625
   ],
   [
    1791633630,
    0.203
   ],
   [
    1791676830,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1791720030,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1791763240,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1791806427,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1791849633,
    0.1915
   ],
   [
    1791892830,
    0.2105
   ],
   [
    1791936031,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1791979241,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792022446,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792065631,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792108831,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792152032,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792195237,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792238432,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792281657,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792324845,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792368029,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792411229,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792454429,
    0.2035
   ],
   [
    1792497631,
    0.203
   ],
   [
    1792540832,
    0.203
   ],
   [
    1792584032,
    0.2025
   ],
   [
    1792670432,
    0.2015
   ],
   [
    1792713648,
    0.2015
   ],
   [
    1792756834,
    0.2015
   ],
   [
    1792800044,
    0.2015
   ],
   [
    1792929630,
    0.207
   ],
   [
    1792977559,
    0.221
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 35-40%": [
   [
    1790424019,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790467220,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1790510419,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1790553634,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1790596819,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790640021,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790683223,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790726423,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790769622,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790812824,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790856023,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790899222,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790942422,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790985626,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1791028823,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1791072022,
    0.37
   ],
   [
    1791115224,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1791158427,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1791201626,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1791244825,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1791288029,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1791331229,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1791374450,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1791417648,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1791504051,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791547252,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791590430,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791633636,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791676837,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791720038,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791763247,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791806434,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791849641,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791892838,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791936039,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1791979251,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1792022456,
    0.33
   ],
   [
    1792065643,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792108842,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792152043,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792195248,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792238444,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792324856,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792368041,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792411240,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792454441,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792497644,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792540845,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792584045,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792670445,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792756844,
    0.45
   ],
   [
    1792800054,
    0.375
   ],
   [
    1792886400,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1792929641,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1792977561,
    0.175
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/md-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/md-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}
