{
 "slug": "mo-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mo-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/mo-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-26T00:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 23257.96,
 "volume_24h": 3374.06,
 "liquidity": 82974.03,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Republican 30%+",
   "probability": 0.645,
   "change_24h": 0.068,
   "volume": 11194.91,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.16,
   "change_24h": -0.055,
   "volume": 2940.61,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 20-25%",
   "probability": 0.11,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume": 3377.68,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 15-20%",
   "probability": 0.0455,
   "change_24h": 0.001,
   "volume": 1121.67,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat Wins",
   "probability": 0.039,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume": 1567.49,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 10-15%",
   "probability": 0.0345,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume": 994.47,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 0-5%",
   "probability": 0.0105,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 876.08,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican 5-10%",
   "probability": 0.0075,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume": 1185.05,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Republican 30%+": [
   [
    1790424018,
    0.534
   ],
   [
    1790467219,
    0.542
   ],
   [
    1790510418,
    0.619
   ],
   [
    1790553633,
    0.6115
   ],
   [
    1790596818,
    0.6255
   ],
   [
    1790640020,
    0.628
   ],
   [
    1790683222,
    0.6265
   ],
   [
    1790726421,
    0.61
   ],
   [
    1790769621,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1790812823,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1790856022,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1790899221,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1790942421,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1790985624,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791028822,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791072020,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791115223,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791158425,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791201624,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791244823,
    0.6005
   ],
   [
    1791288027,
    0.612
   ],
   [
    1791331227,
    0.6165
   ],
   [
    1791374444,
    0.6115
   ],
   [
    1791417644,
    0.6145
   ],
   [
    1791460854,
    0.6125
   ],
   [
    1791504046,
    0.615
   ],
   [
    1791547246,
    0.615
   ],
   [
    1791590429,
    0.6145
   ],
   [
    1791633634,
    0.6145
   ],
   [
    1791676835,
    0.6145
   ],
   [
    1791720035,
    0.6145
   ],
   [
    1791763245,
    0.6055
   ],
   [
    1791806432,
    0.6055
   ],
   [
    1791849638,
    0.6055
   ],
   [
    1791892835,
    0.6055
   ],
   [
    1791936037,
    0.6205
   ],
   [
    1791979248,
    0.6245
   ],
   [
    1792022453,
    0.6345
   ],
   [
    1792065639,
    0.6325
   ],
   [
    1792108838,
    0.6065
   ],
   [
    1792152039,
    0.6075
   ],
   [
    1792195244,
    0.6065
   ],
   [
    1792238440,
    0.606
   ],
   [
    1792324852,
    0.5965
   ],
   [
    1792368037,
    0.583
   ],
   [
    1792411237,
    0.6185
   ],
   [
    1792454437,
    0.607
   ],
   [
    1792497640,
    0.589
   ],
   [
    1792540840,
    0.5825
   ],
   [
    1792584040,
    0.6035
   ],
   [
    1792670441,
    0.559
   ],
   [
    1792713656,
    0.5895
   ],
   [
    1792756841,
    0.552
   ],
   [
    1792800051,
    0.515
   ],
   [
    1792929637,
    0.5725
   ],
   [
    1792977444,
    0.643
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 25-30%": [
   [
    1790424021,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1790467222,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1790510421,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1790553635,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1790596821,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1790640022,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1790683225,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1790726424,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1790769624,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1790812826,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1790856025,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1790899224,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1790942424,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1790985628,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791028826,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791072023,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791115226,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791158429,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791201628,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791244827,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791288031,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791331232,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791374457,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1791417655,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1791504058,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791547259,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791590433,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1791633639,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1791676840,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1791720041,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791763250,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1791806437,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1791849644,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791892842,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1791936043,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1791979255,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1792065648,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792108846,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792152048,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792195253,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1792238449,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792368045,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792411245,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792454445,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1792497649,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1792540850,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792584051,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792670450,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1792756848,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1792800058,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792886407,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1792929646,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1792977445,
    0.185
   ]
  ],
  "Republican 20-25%": [
   [
    1790424020,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1790467221,
    0.125
   ],
   [
    1790510421,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790553635,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790596820,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790640022,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790683224,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790726423,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1790769623,
    0.095
   ],
   [
    1790812826,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790856025,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790899224,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1790942423,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1790985627,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1791028825,
    0.065
   ],
   [
    1791072023,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791115225,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791158428,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791201627,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791244826,
    0.095
   ],
   [
    1791288031,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1791331231,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1791374454,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1791417652,
    0.115
   ],
   [
    1791504056,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1791547256,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1791590432,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1791633638,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1791676839,
    0.105
   ],
   [
    1791720040,
    0.085
   ],
   [
    1791763249,
    0.075
   ],
   [
    1791806436,
    0.075
   ],
   [
    1791849643,
    0.07
   ],
   [
    1791892841,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1791936042,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1791979253,
    0.095
   ],
   [
    1792022459,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1792065646,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1792108844,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1792152046,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1792195251,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1792238447,
    0.09
   ],
   [
    1792324859,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1792368043,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1792411243,
    0.165
   ],
   [
    1792454444,
    0.115
   ],
   [
    1792497647,
    0.145
   ],
   [
    1792540848,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792584049,
    0.12
   ],
   [
    1792670448,
    0.14
   ],
   [
    1792756846,
    0.16
   ],
   [
    1792800056,
    0.115
   ],
   [
    1792886405,
    0.095
   ],
   [
    1792929644,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1792977495,
    0.12
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mo-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mo-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}