{
 "slug": "ny-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "title": "NY-04 House Election Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ny-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ny-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-22T12:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 20823.69,
 "volume_24h": 2380.18,
 "liquidity": 84666.97,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrat 10-15%",
   "probability": 0.285,
   "change_24h": 0.05,
   "volume": 3677.18,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 15-20%",
   "probability": 0.18,
   "change_24h": -0.215,
   "volume": 8411.6,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 5-10%",
   "probability": 0.1575,
   "change_24h": -0.0115,
   "volume": 2068.88,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 20-25%",
   "probability": 0.11,
   "change_24h": 0.05,
   "volume": 3212.81,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republican Wins",
   "probability": 0.066,
   "change_24h": 0.04,
   "volume": 921.71,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 25-30%",
   "probability": 0.0305,
   "change_24h": 0.007,
   "volume": 1459.14,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 30%+",
   "probability": 0.011,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 568.63,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrat 0-5%",
   "probability": 0.0055,
   "change_24h": 0.003,
   "volume": 503.73,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrat 10-15%": [
   [
    1790121619,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790164824,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790208030,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1790251219,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1790294422,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1790337618,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1790380818,
    0.365
   ],
   [
    1790424017,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790467217,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1790510417,
    0.26
   ],
   [
    1790553632,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790596817,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790640018,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790683220,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1790726420,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1790769619,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790812821,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1790856020,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1790899219,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1790942419,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1790985622,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1791028820,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791072019,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791115221,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791158423,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791201622,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791244821,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791288025,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791331225,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791374438,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791417637,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791460847,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791504038,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791547239,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791590426,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791633631,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791676832,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791720032,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1791763242,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1791806428,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791849635,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1791892832,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791936033,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1791979244,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1792022449,
    0.27
   ],
   [
    1792065633,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1792108834,
    0.405
   ],
   [
    1792152035,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1792195240,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1792238435,
    0.33
   ],
   [
    1792324848,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792368032,
    0.335
   ],
   [
    1792411232,
    0.365
   ],
   [
    1792454432,
    0.36
   ],
   [
    1792497634,
    0.345
   ],
   [
    1792540835,
    0.325
   ],
   [
    1792584035,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1792670435,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1792674860,
    0.285
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 15-20%": [
   [
    1790121621,
    0.355
   ],
   [
    1790164829,
    0.345
   ],
   [
    1790208032,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1790251222,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1790294425,
    0.31
   ],
   [
    1790337620,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1790380820,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1790424019,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790467219,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790510419,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790553633,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790596819,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1790640020,
    0.47
   ],
   [
    1790683222,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1790726422,
    0.32
   ],
   [
    1790769621,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790812823,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790856022,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790899222,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790942421,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790985625,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791028823,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791072021,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791115223,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791158426,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1791201625,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791244824,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791288028,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791331228,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791374446,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791417645,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1791460856,
    0.305
   ],
   [
    1791504047,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1791547248,
    0.3
   ],
   [
    1791590429,
    0.315
   ],
   [
    1791633635,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1791676836,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1791720036,
    0.245
   ],
   [
    1791763246,
    0.25
   ],
   [
    1791806432,
    0.24
   ],
   [
    1791849639,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791892836,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791936038,
    0.255
   ],
   [
    1791979249,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1792022454,
    0.13
   ],
   [
    1792065640,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1792108839,
    0.155
   ],
   [
    1792152041,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1792195246,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1792238441,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1792324854,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792368038,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1792411238,
    0.34
   ],
   [
    1792454438,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1792497641,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1792540842,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1792584042,
    0.385
   ],
   [
    1792670442,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1792674861,
    0.18
   ]
  ],
  "Democrat 5-10%": [
   [
    1790121626,
    0.1095
   ],
   [
    1790164838,
    0.133
   ],
   [
    1790208036,
    0.0985
   ],
   [
    1790251226,
    0.1325
   ],
   [
    1790294429,
    0.1955
   ],
   [
    1790337623,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1790380823,
    0.1055
   ],
   [
    1790424022,
    0.11
   ],
   [
    1790467223,
    0.1275
   ],
   [
    1790510423,
    0.135
   ],
   [
    1790553637,
    0.127
   ],
   [
    1790596822,
    0.131
   ],
   [
    1790640024,
    0.111
   ],
   [
    1790683227,
    0.069
   ],
   [
    1790726426,
    0.088
   ],
   [
    1790769625,
    0.087
   ],
   [
    1790812828,
    0.055
   ],
   [
    1790856027,
    0.0465
   ],
   [
    1790899226,
    0.052
   ],
   [
    1790942425,
    0.057
   ],
   [
    1790985630,
    0.1115
   ],
   [
    1791028828,
    0.1045
   ],
   [
    1791072025,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1791115228,
    0.1365
   ],
   [
    1791158430,
    0.0925
   ],
   [
    1791201630,
    0.081
   ],
   [
    1791244829,
    0.0925
   ],
   [
    1791288033,
    0.094
   ],
   [
    1791331234,
    0.119
   ],
   [
    1791590435,
    0.154
   ],
   [
    1791633641,
    0.1155
   ],
   [
    1791676843,
    0.097
   ],
   [
    1791720043,
    0.1245
   ],
   [
    1791763252,
    0.095
   ],
   [
    1791806440,
    0.108
   ],
   [
    1791849647,
    0.169
   ],
   [
    1791892845,
    0.1
   ],
   [
    1791936046,
    0.089
   ],
   [
    1791979259,
    0.089
   ],
   [
    1792065652,
    0.1265
   ],
   [
    1792108850,
    0.15
   ],
   [
    1792152051,
    0.163
   ],
   [
    1792195257,
    0.1645
   ],
   [
    1792238453,
    0.1775
   ],
   [
    1792368049,
    0.1785
   ],
   [
    1792411249,
    0.102
   ],
   [
    1792454449,
    0.193
   ],
   [
    1792497653,
    0.199
   ],
   [
    1792540854,
    0.202
   ],
   [
    1792584056,
    0.162
   ],
   [
    1792670455,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1792674863,
    0.1575
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ny-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ny-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}
