{
 "updated": "2026-09-24T18:24:42+00:00",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi/price-gaps/"
 },
 "method": "Polymarket: published outcome prices; Kalshi: midpoint of best bid and ask (else last trade); gap = polymarket - kalshi, before fees",
 "summary": {
  "n": 216,
  "mean": 1.1391,
  "median": 1.0,
  "within2": 0.8426,
  "within5": 0.9815,
  "max": 8.0
 },
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0025,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.0055,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "No change",
   "polymarket": 0.335,
   "kalshi": 0.34,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.655,
   "kalshi": 0.645,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in October 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0095,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-october/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.0045,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Cut 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.014,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": -0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "No change",
   "polymarket": 0.265,
   "kalshi": 0.235,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": 0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.715,
   "kalshi": 0.705,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision in December 2026",
   "outcome": "Hike 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.021,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/fed-december/",
   "gap": 0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the House in 2026",
   "outcome": "Democrats",
   "polymarket": 0.925,
   "kalshi": 0.9165,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/house-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the House in 2026",
   "outcome": "Republicans",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.0865,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/house-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0115
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the Senate in 2026",
   "outcome": "Democrats",
   "polymarket": 0.625,
   "kalshi": 0.615,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/senate-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the Senate in 2026",
   "outcome": "Republicans",
   "polymarket": 0.375,
   "kalshi": 0.395,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/senate-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the 2028 presidential election",
   "outcome": "Democrats",
   "polymarket": 0.665,
   "kalshi": 0.585,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/president-2028-party/",
   "gap": 0.08
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Which party wins the 2028 presidential election",
   "outcome": "Republicans",
   "polymarket": 0.335,
   "kalshi": 0.415,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/president-2028-party/",
   "gap": -0.08
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
   "polymarket": 0.5625,
   "kalshi": 0.545,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0175
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
   "polymarket": 0.435,
   "kalshi": 0.465,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Augusto Cury",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Renan Santos",
   "polymarket": 0.0055,
   "kalshi": 0.0065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Jair Bolsonaro",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.002,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Fernando Haddad",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.002,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Michelle Bolsonaro",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.002,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Eduardo Bolsonaro",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.002,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Ratinho Júnior",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.002,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Elections",
   "market": "Brazil presidential election winner",
   "outcome": "Aldo Rebelo",
   "polymarket": 0.0005,
   "kalshi": 0.002,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/brazil-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Buffalo Bills",
   "polymarket": 0.125,
   "kalshi": 0.12,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Los Angeles Rams",
   "polymarket": 0.125,
   "kalshi": 0.125,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "San Francisco 49ers",
   "polymarket": 0.081,
   "kalshi": 0.095,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.014
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Seattle Seahawks",
   "polymarket": 0.095,
   "kalshi": 0.085,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Kansas City Chiefs",
   "polymarket": 0.0765,
   "kalshi": 0.075,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Baltimore Ravens",
   "polymarket": 0.0635,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Cincinnati Bengals",
   "polymarket": 0.056,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.009
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Philadelphia Eagles",
   "polymarket": 0.0465,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "Denver Broncos",
   "polymarket": 0.0375,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Pro football champion (2026–27 season)",
   "outcome": "New England Patriots",
   "polymarket": 0.0365,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/pro-football-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
   "polymarket": 0.305,
   "kalshi": 0.3165,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0115
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Milwaukee Brewers",
   "polymarket": 0.1545,
   "kalshi": 0.1475,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.007
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Tampa Bay Rays",
   "polymarket": 0.1165,
   "kalshi": 0.1105,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "New York Yankees",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.0775,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Atlanta Braves",
   "polymarket": 0.0525,
   "kalshi": 0.0625,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Boston Red Sox",
   "polymarket": 0.0525,
   "kalshi": 0.0565,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "San Diego Padres",
   "polymarket": 0.0535,
   "kalshi": 0.0565,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.003
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Philadelphia Phillies",
   "polymarket": 0.0455,
   "kalshi": 0.0535,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.008
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Cleveland Guardians",
   "polymarket": 0.0375,
   "kalshi": 0.0485,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": -0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "World Series 2026 champion",
   "outcome": "Chicago Cubs",
   "polymarket": 0.0445,
   "kalshi": 0.0425,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/world-series-2026/",
   "gap": 0.002
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Oklahoma City Thunder",
   "polymarket": 0.205,
   "kalshi": 0.215,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "San Antonio Spurs",
   "polymarket": 0.205,
   "kalshi": 0.215,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "New York Knicks",
   "polymarket": 0.115,
   "kalshi": 0.085,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Philadelphia 76ers",
   "polymarket": 0.1115,
   "kalshi": 0.095,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0165
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Miami Heat",
   "polymarket": 0.0305,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0245
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Minnesota Timberwolves",
   "polymarket": 0.0515,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Boston Celtics",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Denver Nuggets",
   "polymarket": 0.0305,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Detroit Pistons",
   "polymarket": 0.0285,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0135
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "NBA champion 2027",
   "outcome": "Toronto Raptors",
   "polymarket": 0.0285,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nba-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Colorado Avalanche",
   "polymarket": 0.115,
   "kalshi": 0.115,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Florida Panthers",
   "polymarket": 0.105,
   "kalshi": 0.115,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Carolina Hurricanes",
   "polymarket": 0.105,
   "kalshi": 0.095,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Edmonton Oilers",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.075,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Vegas Golden Knights",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.075,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Dallas Stars",
   "polymarket": 0.055,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Tampa Bay Lightning",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Minnesota Wild",
   "polymarket": 0.05,
   "kalshi": 0.06,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Montreal Canadiens",
   "polymarket": 0.0585,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0135
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Stanley Cup 2027",
   "outcome": "Washington Capitals",
   "polymarket": 0.049,
   "kalshi": 0.055,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/nhl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Barcelona",
   "polymarket": 0.225,
   "kalshi": 0.245,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Bayern Munich",
   "polymarket": 0.145,
   "kalshi": 0.135,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Arsenal",
   "polymarket": 0.135,
   "kalshi": 0.125,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Real Madrid",
   "polymarket": 0.115,
   "kalshi": 0.125,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Manchester City",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.095,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Liverpool",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.035,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Inter Milan",
   "polymarket": 0.0275,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Manchester United",
   "polymarket": 0.0235,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Atlético Madrid",
   "polymarket": 0.0165,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Sports",
   "market": "Champions League 2027 winner",
   "outcome": "Aston Villa",
   "polymarket": 0.0095,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/ucl-2027/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Economy and business",
   "market": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first",
   "outcome": "Anthropic",
   "polymarket": 0.9485,
   "kalshi": 0.93,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/openai-anthropic-ipo/",
   "gap": 0.0185
  },
  {
   "category": "Economy and business",
   "market": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first",
   "outcome": "OpenAI",
   "polymarket": 0.0515,
   "kalshi": 0.105,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/openai-anthropic-ipo/",
   "gap": -0.0535
  },
  {
   "category": "Economy and business",
   "market": "US recession by the end of 2026",
   "outcome": "Yes",
   "polymarket": 0.115,
   "kalshi": 0.045,
   "link": "/polymarket-vs-kalshi/us-recession-2026/",
   "gap": 0.07
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Iowa senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Josh Turek)",
   "polymarket": 0.465,
   "kalshi": 0.45,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.015
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Iowa senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ashley Hinson)",
   "polymarket": 0.535,
   "kalshi": 0.555,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Ohio senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Sherrod Brown)",
   "polymarket": 0.585,
   "kalshi": 0.595,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Ohio senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Jon Husted)",
   "polymarket": 0.395,
   "kalshi": 0.405,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Texas senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (James Talarico)",
   "polymarket": 0.605,
   "kalshi": 0.585,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Texas senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ken Paxton)",
   "polymarket": 0.395,
   "kalshi": 0.425,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Maine senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Troy Jackson)",
   "polymarket": 0.675,
   "kalshi": 0.665,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Maine senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Susan Collins)",
   "polymarket": 0.325,
   "kalshi": 0.335,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Nebraska senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.0035,
   "kalshi": 0.004,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Nebraska senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Pete Ricketts)",
   "polymarket": 0.685,
   "kalshi": 0.705,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Kansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Adam Hamilton)",
   "polymarket": 0.305,
   "kalshi": 0.31,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Kansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Roger Marshall)",
   "polymarket": 0.695,
   "kalshi": 0.695,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Michigan senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Abdul El-Sayed)",
   "polymarket": 0.715,
   "kalshi": 0.735,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Michigan senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Rogers)",
   "polymarket": 0.285,
   "kalshi": 0.275,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Hampshire senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Chris Pappas)",
   "polymarket": 0.845,
   "kalshi": 0.865,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Hampshire senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (John E. Sununu)",
   "polymarket": 0.145,
   "kalshi": 0.145,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Annie Andrews)",
   "polymarket": 0.135,
   "kalshi": 0.135,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Darline Graham Nordone)",
   "polymarket": 0.865,
   "kalshi": 0.865,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Montana senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Alani Bankhead)",
   "polymarket": 0.0045,
   "kalshi": 0.009,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Montana senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Kurt Alme)",
   "polymarket": 0.89,
   "kalshi": 0.9045,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0145
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Florida senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Angie Nixon)",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.115,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Florida senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ashley Moody)",
   "polymarket": 0.915,
   "kalshi": 0.895,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Mississippi senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Scott Colom)",
   "polymarket": 0.085,
   "kalshi": 0.0905,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Mississippi senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Cindy Hyde-Smith)",
   "polymarket": 0.92,
   "kalshi": 0.9105,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Minnesota senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Peggy Flanagan)",
   "polymarket": 0.925,
   "kalshi": 0.905,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Minnesota senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Michele Tafoya)",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.098,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.023
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Louisiana senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jamie Davis)",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.0525,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0125
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Louisiana senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Julia Letlow)",
   "polymarket": 0.93,
   "kalshi": 0.9485,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0185
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Georgia senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jon Ossoff)",
   "polymarket": 0.945,
   "kalshi": 0.9445,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Georgia senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Collins)",
   "polymarket": 0.054,
   "kalshi": 0.0605,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0065
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "North Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Roy Cooper)",
   "polymarket": 0.945,
   "kalshi": 0.936,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.009
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "North Carolina senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Michael Whatley)",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.065,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Idaho senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.0085,
   "kalshi": 0.0045,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Idaho senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Jim Risch)",
   "polymarket": 0.946,
   "kalshi": 0.9245,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0215
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Arkansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Hallie Shoffner)",
   "polymarket": 0.049,
   "kalshi": 0.0715,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0225
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Arkansas senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Tom Cotton)",
   "polymarket": 0.9465,
   "kalshi": 0.929,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0175
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Dakota senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.0015,
   "kalshi": 0.004,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "South Dakota senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Rounds)",
   "polymarket": 0.9515,
   "kalshi": 0.908,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0435
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Alabama senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Everett Wess)",
   "polymarket": 0.025,
   "kalshi": 0.0365,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0115
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Alabama senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Barry Moore)",
   "polymarket": 0.9605,
   "kalshi": 0.971,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0105
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Colorado senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (John Hickenlooper)",
   "polymarket": 0.9615,
   "kalshi": 0.9825,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.021
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Colorado senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mark Baisley)",
   "polymarket": 0.0305,
   "kalshi": 0.016,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0145
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oklahoma senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas)",
   "polymarket": 0.0325,
   "kalshi": 0.0185,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.014
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oklahoma senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Kevin Hern)",
   "polymarket": 0.965,
   "kalshi": 0.9745,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Tennessee senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Marquita Bradshaw)",
   "polymarket": 0.033,
   "kalshi": 0.029,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Tennessee senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Bill Hagerty)",
   "polymarket": 0.966,
   "kalshi": 0.972,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Jersey senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Cory Booker)",
   "polymarket": 0.9675,
   "kalshi": 0.9785,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Jersey senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Justin Murphy)",
   "polymarket": 0.034,
   "kalshi": 0.013,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.021
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Wyoming senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (James W. Byrd)",
   "polymarket": 0.0275,
   "kalshi": 0.018,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Wyoming senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Harriet Hageman)",
   "polymarket": 0.9685,
   "kalshi": 0.9795,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Mexico senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Ben Ray Luján)",
   "polymarket": 0.9695,
   "kalshi": 0.9735,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "New Mexico senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Larry Marker)",
   "polymarket": 0.032,
   "kalshi": 0.0245,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Mark Warner)",
   "polymarket": 0.9755,
   "kalshi": 0.976,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Bert Mizusawa)",
   "polymarket": 0.016,
   "kalshi": 0.027,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oregon senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jeff Merkley)",
   "polymarket": 0.9775,
   "kalshi": 0.9775,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Oregon senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (David Brock Smith)",
   "polymarket": 0.021,
   "kalshi": 0.0215,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Illinois senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Juliana Stratton)",
   "polymarket": 0.978,
   "kalshi": 0.9855,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Illinois senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Don Tracy)",
   "polymarket": 0.025,
   "kalshi": 0.0225,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Massachusetts senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Ed Markey)",
   "polymarket": 0.979,
   "kalshi": 0.9825,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0035
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Massachusetts senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (John Deaton)",
   "polymarket": 0.019,
   "kalshi": 0.0135,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Delaware senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Democrat)",
   "polymarket": 0.9825,
   "kalshi": 0.9865,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Delaware senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Republican)",
   "polymarket": 0.0135,
   "kalshi": 0.008,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "West Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Rachel Fetty Anderson)",
   "polymarket": 0.0185,
   "kalshi": 0.0185,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "West Virginia senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Shelley Moore Capito)",
   "polymarket": 0.985,
   "kalshi": 0.979,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Rhode Island senate race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jack Reed)",
   "polymarket": 0.995,
   "kalshi": 0.99,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Senate races",
   "market": "Rhode Island senate race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Raymond McKay)",
   "polymarket": 0.0095,
   "kalshi": 0.0105,
   "link": "/odds/senate-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nevada governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Aaron Ford)",
   "polymarket": 0.49,
   "kalshi": 0.465,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nevada governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Joe Lombardo)",
   "polymarket": 0.5,
   "kalshi": 0.535,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.035
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Georgia governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Keisha Lance Bottoms)",
   "polymarket": 0.545,
   "kalshi": 0.535,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Georgia governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Rick Jackson)",
   "polymarket": 0.455,
   "kalshi": 0.475,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Ohio governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Amy Acton)",
   "polymarket": 0.615,
   "kalshi": 0.605,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Ohio governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Vivek Ramaswamy)",
   "polymarket": 0.385,
   "kalshi": 0.395,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Kansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Cindy Holscher)",
   "polymarket": 0.275,
   "kalshi": 0.295,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Kansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ty Masterson)",
   "polymarket": 0.735,
   "kalshi": 0.695,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.04
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Texas governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Gina Hinojosa)",
   "polymarket": 0.255,
   "kalshi": 0.255,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Texas governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Greg Abbott)",
   "polymarket": 0.741,
   "kalshi": 0.745,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Florida governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (David Jolly)",
   "polymarket": 0.245,
   "kalshi": 0.225,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Florida governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Byron Donalds)",
   "polymarket": 0.755,
   "kalshi": 0.775,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Iowa governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Rob Sand)",
   "polymarket": 0.825,
   "kalshi": 0.825,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Iowa governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Zach Lahn)",
   "polymarket": 0.16,
   "kalshi": 0.17,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wisconsin governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (David Crowley)",
   "polymarket": 0.85,
   "kalshi": 0.835,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wisconsin governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Tom Tiffany)",
   "polymarket": 0.155,
   "kalshi": 0.165,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oregon governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Tina Kotek)",
   "polymarket": 0.865,
   "kalshi": 0.84,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oregon governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Christine Drazan)",
   "polymarket": 0.135,
   "kalshi": 0.16,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arizona governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Katie Hobbs)",
   "polymarket": 0.885,
   "kalshi": 0.895,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arizona governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Andy Biggs)",
   "polymarket": 0.105,
   "kalshi": 0.115,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Vermont governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Amanda Janoo)",
   "polymarket": 0.06,
   "kalshi": 0.074,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.014
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Vermont governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Phil Scott)",
   "polymarket": 0.92,
   "kalshi": 0.928,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.008
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Michigan governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jocelyn Benson)",
   "polymarket": 0.925,
   "kalshi": 0.927,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.002
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Michigan governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (John James)",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.0845,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0195
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nebraska governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Lynne Walz)",
   "polymarket": 0.065,
   "kalshi": 0.078,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.013
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Nebraska governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Jim Pillen)",
   "polymarket": 0.935,
   "kalshi": 0.9195,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0155
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oklahoma governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Cyndi Munson)",
   "polymarket": 0.075,
   "kalshi": 0.086,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Oklahoma governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Mike Mazzei)",
   "polymarket": 0.935,
   "kalshi": 0.9155,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0195
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Carolina governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jermaine Johnson)",
   "polymarket": 0.047,
   "kalshi": 0.0555,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0085
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Carolina governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Alan Wilson)",
   "polymarket": 0.94,
   "kalshi": 0.9425,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0025
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Alabama governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Doug Jones)",
   "polymarket": 0.06,
   "kalshi": 0.0735,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0135
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Alabama governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Tommy Tuberville)",
   "polymarket": 0.9425,
   "kalshi": 0.926,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0165
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New York governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Kathy Hochul)",
   "polymarket": 0.95,
   "kalshi": 0.94,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New York governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Bruce Blakeman)",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.061,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.016
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wyoming governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Kenneth Casner)",
   "polymarket": 0.0345,
   "kalshi": 0.04,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Wyoming governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Eric Barlow)",
   "polymarket": 0.9535,
   "kalshi": 0.9635,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.01
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Minnesota governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Amy Klobuchar)",
   "polymarket": 0.955,
   "kalshi": 0.9535,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Minnesota governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Lisa Demuth)",
   "polymarket": 0.0515,
   "kalshi": 0.0515,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New Mexico governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Deb Haaland)",
   "polymarket": 0.955,
   "kalshi": 0.9295,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0255
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "New Mexico governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Gregg Hull)",
   "polymarket": 0.045,
   "kalshi": 0.069,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.024
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Massachusetts governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Maura Healey)",
   "polymarket": 0.957,
   "kalshi": 0.953,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Massachusetts governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Michael Minogue)",
   "polymarket": 0.029,
   "kalshi": 0.051,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.022
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maine governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Hannah Pingree)",
   "polymarket": 0.958,
   "kalshi": 0.945,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.013
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maine governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Robert Charles)",
   "polymarket": 0.037,
   "kalshi": 0.0465,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0095
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Dakota governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Dan Ahlers)",
   "polymarket": 0.0355,
   "kalshi": 0.0275,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.008
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "South Dakota governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Larry Rhoden)",
   "polymarket": 0.959,
   "kalshi": 0.977,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.018
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Connecticut governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Ned Lamont)",
   "polymarket": 0.9605,
   "kalshi": 0.965,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0045
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Connecticut governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Ryan Fazio)",
   "polymarket": 0.0335,
   "kalshi": 0.032,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Tennessee governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Jerri Green)",
   "polymarket": 0.0345,
   "kalshi": 0.05,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0155
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Tennessee governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Marsha Blackburn)",
   "polymarket": 0.9605,
   "kalshi": 0.9545,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Rhode Island governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Helena Foulkes)",
   "polymarket": 0.9625,
   "kalshi": 0.957,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Rhode Island governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Republican)",
   "polymarket": 0.026,
   "kalshi": 0.031,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.005
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Colorado governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Phil Weiser)",
   "polymarket": 0.966,
   "kalshi": 0.9675,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Colorado governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Victor Marx)",
   "polymarket": 0.0365,
   "kalshi": 0.031,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maryland governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Wes Moore)",
   "polymarket": 0.966,
   "kalshi": 0.9675,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0015
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Maryland governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Dan Cox)",
   "polymarket": 0.021,
   "kalshi": 0.032,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.011
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Pennsylvania governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Josh Shapiro)",
   "polymarket": 0.966,
   "kalshi": 0.9735,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0075
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Pennsylvania governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Stacy Garrity)",
   "polymarket": 0.0295,
   "kalshi": 0.0285,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.001
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arkansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Fredrick Love)",
   "polymarket": 0.022,
   "kalshi": 0.028,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Arkansas governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)",
   "polymarket": 0.97,
   "kalshi": 0.9755,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Hawaii governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Josh Green)",
   "polymarket": 0.9705,
   "kalshi": 0.9745,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Hawaii governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Gary Cordery)",
   "polymarket": 0.028,
   "kalshi": 0.0275,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.0005
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Idaho governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (Terri Pickens)",
   "polymarket": 0.031,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.006
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Idaho governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Brad Little)",
   "polymarket": 0.971,
   "kalshi": 0.9765,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.0055
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Illinois governor race",
   "outcome": "Democrat (JB Pritzker)",
   "polymarket": 0.977,
   "kalshi": 0.973,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": 0.004
  },
  {
   "category": "Governor races",
   "market": "Illinois governor race",
   "outcome": "Republican (Darren Bailey)",
   "polymarket": 0.016,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/odds/governor-forecast-2026/",
   "gap": -0.009
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Cut 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.03,
   "kalshi": 0.01,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Cut 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.05,
   "kalshi": 0.025,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.025
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "No change",
   "polymarket": 0.565,
   "kalshi": 0.545,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.02
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Hike 25 bp",
   "polymarket": 0.315,
   "kalshi": 0.345,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": -0.03
  },
  {
   "category": "Fed",
   "market": "Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027",
   "outcome": "Hike 50 bp or more",
   "polymarket": 0.026,
   "kalshi": 0.015,
   "link": "/odds/fed-rate-odds/",
   "gap": 0.011
  }
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}