{
 "slug": "economy",
 "topic": "US Economy",
 "category": "economy",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/economy/",
 "updated": "2026-09-23T15:49:17+00:00",
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  "economy",
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  "economic-policy",
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   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
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  {
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   "title": "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?",
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   "title": "Largest Company end of December 2026?",
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   "title": "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)",
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   "title": "Central Bank of Colombia decision in September",
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  {
   "title": "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?",
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  {
   "title": "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?",
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  {
   "title": "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?",
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  {
   "title": "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?",
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   "title": "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?",
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   "title": "Core PCE YoY - August 2026",
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   "title": "US recession by end of 2026?",
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   "title": "USD x Iranian rials End of September?",
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   "title": "Swiss National Bank decision in September?",
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   "leader": "No Change",
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   "title": "NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?",
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   "title": "Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30?",
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   "title": "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?",
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   "title": "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?",
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   "title": "US economic state at the end of 2026?",
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   "title": "Bank of Canada Decision in October?",
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   "title": "Bank of Mexico Decision in September?",
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   "title": "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?",
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   "title": "India Annual Inflation 2026",
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   "title": "3rd Largest Company end of September?",
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   "title": "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?",
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   "title": "What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?",
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  {
   "title": "2026 World GDP Growth",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2026-world-gdp-growth",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2026-world-gdp-growth",
   "leader": "3.1%",
   "probability": 0.294,
   "change_24h": 0.004,
   "volume_24h": 2684.3,
   "volume": 43066.69,
   "end_date": "2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-october-30",
   "leader": "280M",
   "probability": 0.685,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 2579.26,
   "volume": 2579.26,
   "end_date": "2026-11-12T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "JOLTS Job Openings: August 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jolts-job-openings-august-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jolts-job-openings-august-2026",
   "leader": "7.1M to 7.2M",
   "probability": 0.275,
   "change_24h": 0.055,
   "volume_24h": 2545.67,
   "volume": 11943.96,
   "end_date": "2026-09-29T08:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "2nd Largest Company end of September?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-company-end-of-september-20260729222928263",
   "leader": "Apple",
   "probability": 0.9795,
   "change_24h": 0.0045,
   "volume_24h": 2453.92,
   "volume": 147937.46,
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  },
  {
   "title": "USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-september-higher-strikes",
   "leader": "2.2 to 2.5M",
   "probability": 0.785,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume_24h": 2372.09,
   "volume": 35575.35,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Korea decision in October?",
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   "leader": "No Change",
   "probability": 0.68,
   "change_24h": 0.095,
   "volume_24h": 2308.89,
   "volume": 26944.92,
   "end_date": "2026-10-22T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Fed rate cut?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629",
   "leader": "By July 2027 Meeting",
   "probability": 0.485,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 2207.3,
   "volume": 3689629.81,
   "end_date": "2028-01-29T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "4.25%",
   "probability": 0.565,
   "change_24h": 0.0365,
   "volume_24h": 2155.27,
   "volume": 6892859.2,
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  },
  {
   "title": "South Africa Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/south-africa-annual-inflation-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/south-africa-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "4.7-5.0%",
   "probability": 0.336,
   "change_24h": 0.0435,
   "volume_24h": 1991.32,
   "volume": 65857.73,
   "end_date": "2027-01-21T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Israel Decision in October?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-israel-decision-in-october",
   "leader": "No Change",
   "probability": 0.775,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1980.95,
   "volume": 30748.33,
   "end_date": "2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "PPI YoY - September 2026",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ppi-yoy-september-2026",
   "leader": "5.9%+",
   "probability": 0.4,
   "change_24h": 0.06,
   "volume_24h": 1740.79,
   "volume": 14202.18,
   "end_date": "2026-10-16T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "UK Recession in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/uk-recession-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.13,
   "change_24h": 0.09,
   "volume_24h": 1739.66,
   "volume": 14365.41,
   "end_date": "2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-chicago-metro-be-on-september-30-20260630182405995",
   "leader": "$335K - $340K",
   "probability": 0.725,
   "change_24h": 0.165,
   "volume_24h": 1726.25,
   "volume": 105976.03,
   "end_date": "2026-10-11T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Canada Decision in December?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-december-20260908230600011",
   "leader": "25 bps increase",
   "probability": 0.44,
   "change_24h": 0.035,
   "volume_24h": 1709.41,
   "volume": 17712.66,
   "end_date": "2026-12-09T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "USD x Iranian rials End of December?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-december",
   "leader": "2.0 - 2.5M",
   "probability": 0.38,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 1542.49,
   "volume": 26170.95,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Argentina Monthly Inflation - September",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-monthly-inflation-september-2026",
   "leader": "1.9 to 2.1%",
   "probability": 0.58,
   "change_24h": -0.055,
   "volume_24h": 1486.81,
   "volume": 11738.81,
   "end_date": "2026-10-13T15:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "China Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-inflation-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "0.1 – 0.5%",
   "probability": 0.276,
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   "volume_24h": 1423.52,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september",
   "leader": "4.90%",
   "probability": 0.96,
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   "volume_24h": 1307.9,
   "volume": 23151.78,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
   "leader": "Below 4.50%",
   "probability": 0.46,
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   "volume_24h": 1284.16,
   "volume": 28995.48,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026",
   "leader": "2.0-2.5%",
   "probability": 0.255,
   "change_24h": -0.06,
   "volume_24h": 1152.93,
   "volume": 36559.99,
   "end_date": "2026-10-30T06:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US GDP growth in Q3 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-20260730144539767",
   "leader": "≥3.0%",
   "probability": 0.735,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1146.21,
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  {
   "title": "September Inflation US - Monthly",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/september-inflation-us-monthly",
   "leader": "0.6%",
   "probability": 0.385,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1138.38,
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  {
   "title": "Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)",
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   "leader": "0.0 to 0.1%",
   "probability": 0.535,
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   "volume_24h": 1117.04,
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  {
   "title": "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september",
   "leader": "Below 4.43%",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": 0.025,
   "volume_24h": 928.36,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Japan Decision in October?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/events/bank-of-japan-october-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.825,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 855.95,
   "volume": 135778.26,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Russia decision in October?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-russia-decision-in-october-20260724021538830",
   "leader": "No Change",
   "probability": 0.7,
   "change_24h": 0.04,
   "volume_24h": 778.88,
   "volume": 39897.94,
   "end_date": "2026-10-24T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eurozone-2026-annual-inflation",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eurozone-2026-annual-inflation",
   "leader": "3.1%+",
   "probability": 0.8845,
   "change_24h": -0.002,
   "volume_24h": 730.3,
   "volume": 116440.01,
   "end_date": "2027-01-20T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump publicly insults Warsh?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-publicly-insults-warsh-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.17,
   "change_24h": -0.075,
   "volume_24h": 727.72,
   "volume": 4597.83,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
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  {
   "title": "What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-dc-metro-area-be-on-september-30-20260630181851462",
   "leader": "$524K - $530K",
   "probability": 0.695,
   "change_24h": 0.1235,
   "volume_24h": 631.77,
   "volume": 70441.36,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Brazil decision in November?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-november-1785878499354",
   "leader": "25 bps decrease",
   "probability": 0.785,
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   "volume_24h": 603.04,
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  {
   "title": "Core CPI MoM - September 2026",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-mom-september-2026",
   "leader": "0.2%",
   "probability": 0.475,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 531.12,
   "volume": 15904.72,
   "end_date": "2026-10-15T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Brazil decision in December?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-december-20260918",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-december-20260918",
   "leader": "No Change",
   "probability": 0.35,
   "change_24h": -0.175,
   "volume_24h": 529.69,
   "volume": 4031.4,
   "end_date": "2026-12-09T11:59:00+00:00"
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  {
   "title": "Will gas be below $3.75 in any state?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-gas-be-below-3pt75-in-any-state-onptptpt",
   "leader": "October 31",
   "probability": 0.34,
   "change_24h": -0.105,
   "volume_24h": 492.45,
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  {
   "title": "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/uk-annual-inflation-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/uk-annual-inflation-in-2026",
   "leader": "3.5–3.9%",
   "probability": 0.4365,
   "change_24h": 0.014,
   "volume_24h": 383.98,
   "volume": 120933.5,
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  },
  {
   "title": "US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-september-30",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0415,
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   "volume_24h": 381.5,
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  {
   "title": "What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-los-angeles-metro-area-be-on-september-30-20260630173100174",
   "leader": "$1.153M - $1.169M",
   "probability": 0.445,
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   "volume_24h": 377.36,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-annual-inflation-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "5.00-5.49%",
   "probability": 0.454,
   "change_24h": 0.08,
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  {
   "title": "How high will inflation get in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026",
   "leader": "Above 4.5%",
   "probability": 0.175,
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  {
   "title": "GDP growth in 2026",
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  },
  {
   "title": "Fed Decision in January?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.565,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 300.49,
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  {
   "title": "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026",
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   "leader": "≤1.9%",
   "probability": 0.6025,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 294.54,
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  },
  {
   "title": "US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-national-ethereum-reserve-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0365,
   "change_24h": 0.0015,
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  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of India decision in October",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-india-decision-in-october-20260908161500001",
   "leader": "25 bps increase",
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   "title": "USMCA extended in 2026?",
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   "title": "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021",
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   "title": "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?",
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  {
   "title": "Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?",
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   "title": "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?",
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  {
   "title": "3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/3rd-largest-company-end-of-december-2026",
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   "title": "China Annual GDP Growth 2026",
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  {
   "title": "Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026",
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   "probability": 0.586,
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  {
   "title": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?",
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   "leader": "280M",
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  {
   "title": "What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?",
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  {
   "title": "Bank of Japan Decision in December?",
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   "title": "Canada Annual Inflation 2026",
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   "title": "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026",
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   "title": "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - September 2026",
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  {
   "title": "Price of Dozen Eggs in September?",
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   "title": "Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026",
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   "title": "Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?",
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  {
   "title": "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?",
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   "title": "Bank of Mexico Decision in November?",
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   "title": "ECB Interest Rates: December 2026",
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   "title": "Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026",
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   "title": "September Inflation China - Annual",
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   "title": "How many jobs added in September?",
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  {
   "title": "Negative GDP growth in 2026?",
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   "title": "UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?",
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   "title": "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?",
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   "title": "South Korea Annual Inflation 2026",
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   "title": "Will Argentina dollarize?",
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   "title": "ECB rate cut in 2026?",
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   "title": "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?",
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   "title": "Core CPI YoY - September 2026",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-yoy-september-2026",
   "leader": "2.4%",
   "probability": 0.45,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 24108.92,
   "end_date": "2026-10-15T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026",
   "leader": "$7.000+",
   "probability": 0.725,
   "change_24h": -0.125,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 22717.37,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "ISM Services PMI - September 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ism-services-pmi-september-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ism-services-pmi-september-2026",
   "leader": "53.0 to 53.9",
   "probability": 0.25,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 16354.31,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-canada-have-the-highest-unemployment-rate-since-2016-this-year",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-canada-have-the-highest-unemployment-rate-since-2016-this-year",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0925,
   "change_24h": -0.003,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 9607.9,
   "end_date": "2027-02-16T04:59:00+00:00"
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  {
   "title": "US recession by end of 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.345,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 9528.72,
   "end_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
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  {
   "title": "Japan recession in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/japan-recession-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/japan-recession-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.04,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 4282.94,
   "end_date": "2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "September Inflation UK - Annual",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/inflation-uk-annual-20260916t070000000z",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/inflation-uk-annual-20260916t070000000z",
   "leader": "3.4-3.6%",
   "probability": 0.585,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 3330.03,
   "end_date": "2026-10-21T11:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Canada's population Up or Down this year?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/canadas-population-up-or-down-this-year",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/canadas-population-up-or-down-this-year",
   "leader": "Up",
   "probability": 0.125,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 2197.57,
   "end_date": "2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-canadas-drop-in-population-in-2026-be-the-largest-on-record",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-canadas-drop-in-population-in-2026-be-the-largest-on-record",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.865,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 2078.77,
   "end_date": "2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/economy/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/economy/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma API; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}