{
 "slug": "fed-rates",
 "topic": "Fed & Interest Rates",
 "category": "economy",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rates/",
 "updated": "2026-09-23T15:49:17+00:00",
 "count": 41,
 "volume_24h": 1300062.11,
 "polymarket_tags": [
  "fed-rates",
  "fed",
  "fomc",
  "jerome-powell",
  "kevin-warsh",
  "interest-rates"
 ],
 "markets": [
  {
   "title": "Fed Decision in October?",
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  {
   "title": "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?",
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   "volume_24h": 35057.95,
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  {
   "title": "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?",
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   "leader": "5.1%",
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  {
   "title": "Fed Decision in December?",
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  {
   "title": "Bank of England decision in November?",
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   "leader": "25 bps increase",
   "probability": 0.695,
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   "volume_24h": 28956.95,
   "volume": 143258.55,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?",
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   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.885,
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  {
   "title": "ECB Interest Rates: October 2026",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.585,
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   "volume_24h": 18377.1,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?",
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   "leader": "2 (50 bps)",
   "probability": 0.565,
   "change_24h": -0.055,
   "volume_24h": 15915.37,
   "volume": 618991.78,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec",
   "leader": "Hike–Hike–Hike",
   "probability": 0.355,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?",
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   "leader": "5.40%",
   "probability": 0.83,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september",
   "leader": "5.05%",
   "probability": 0.915,
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   "volume_24h": 8948.45,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-30-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september",
   "leader": "Below 5.24%",
   "probability": 0.075,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
   "leader": "Below 4.6%",
   "probability": 0.31,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-30-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
   "leader": "Below 5.10%",
   "probability": 0.46,
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   "volume": 22938.96,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0205,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september",
   "leader": "5.39%",
   "probability": 0.705,
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   "volume_24h": 5307.26,
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  },
  {
   "title": "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
   "leader": " ↑ 4.25%",
   "probability": 0.853,
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   "volume_24h": 5188.23,
   "volume": 1851646.63,
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  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september",
   "leader": "Below 4.76%",
   "probability": 0.036,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume_24h": 3777.34,
   "volume": 67488.3,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",
   "leader": "4.90%",
   "probability": 0.8425,
   "change_24h": 0.1635,
   "volume_24h": 3396.58,
   "volume": 30256.77,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Fed rate cut?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-cut-by-629/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629",
   "leader": "By July 2027 Meeting",
   "probability": 0.485,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 2207.3,
   "volume": 3689629.81,
   "end_date": "2028-01-29T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "4.25%",
   "probability": 0.565,
   "change_24h": 0.0365,
   "volume_24h": 2155.27,
   "volume": 6892859.2,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september",
   "leader": "4.90%",
   "probability": 0.96,
   "change_24h": 0.34,
   "volume_24h": 1307.9,
   "volume": 23151.78,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
   "leader": "Below 4.50%",
   "probability": 0.46,
   "change_24h": -0.125,
   "volume_24h": 1284.16,
   "volume": 28995.48,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/lisa-cook-officially-out-as-fed-governor-byptptpt-20260807214943167",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.042,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1133.63,
   "volume": 24952.27,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-september",
   "leader": "Below 4.43%",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": 0.025,
   "volume_24h": 928.36,
   "volume": 21921.08,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump publicly insults Warsh?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-publicly-insults-warsh-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-publicly-insults-warsh-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.17,
   "change_24h": -0.075,
   "volume_24h": 727.72,
   "volume": 4597.83,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-january-fed-meeting-20260730001232359",
   "leader": "0",
   "probability": 0.355,
   "change_24h": 0.025,
   "volume_24h": 542.72,
   "volume": 16456.37,
   "end_date": "2027-01-28T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Fed Decision in January?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.565,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 300.49,
   "volume": 110464.47,
   "end_date": "2027-01-28T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of India decision in October",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-india-decision-in-october-20260908161500001",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-india-decision-in-october-20260908161500001",
   "leader": "25 bps increase",
   "probability": 0.8,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 256.09,
   "volume": 22565.49,
   "end_date": "2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-december-fed-meeting-20260730000304473",
   "leader": "0",
   "probability": 0.505,
   "change_24h": 0.18,
   "volume_24h": 255.8,
   "volume": 19692.06,
   "end_date": "2026-12-10T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/japan-10y-bond-yield-end-of-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/japan-10y-bond-yield-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "3.0%+",
   "probability": 0.586,
   "change_24h": -0.004,
   "volume_24h": 168.0,
   "volume": 31190.88,
   "end_date": "2027-02-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by",
   "leader": "December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 98.52,
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   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "ECB Interest Rates: December 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026",
   "leader": "25 bps increase",
   "probability": 0.59,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 74.81,
   "volume": 15541.33,
   "end_date": "2026-12-17T11:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 12.62,
   "volume": 31436.35,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Jerome Powell federally charged?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-federally-charged-by-june-30",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-federally-charged-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2026",
   "probability": 0.0175,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 10.15,
   "volume": 319246.28,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/warsh-out-as-fed-chair-by-20260723173321450",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/warsh-out-as-fed-chair-by-20260723173321450",
   "leader": "June 30, 2027",
   "probability": 0.095,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 5.49,
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   "end_date": "2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-in-jail-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0305,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 1.03,
   "volume": 5740.23,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-tries-to-fire-warsh-in-2026-20260724155002773",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-tries-to-fire-warsh-in-2026-20260724155002773",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0145,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 30016.94,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Fed abolished before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-abolished-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-abolished-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.017,
   "change_24h": 0.001,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 8097.52,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-october-fed-meeting",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-dissent-at-the-october-fed-meeting",
   "leader": "0",
   "probability": 0.435,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 6921.78,
   "end_date": "2026-10-28T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-jerome-powell-join-an-ai-company-in-2026-20260710193608891",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-jerome-powell-join-an-ai-company-in-2026-20260710193608891",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.06,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 444.32,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rates/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rates/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma API; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}