{
 "slug": "geopolitics",
 "topic": "Geopolitics",
 "category": "geopolitics",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/",
 "updated": "2026-09-23T18:01:32+00:00",
 "count": 172,
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   "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade?",
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   "title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?",
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   "title": "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026",
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   "title": "Will Xi Jinping visit US?",
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   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
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   "title": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
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   "title": "Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?",
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   "title": "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts?",
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   "title": "Putin out as President of Russia?",
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  {
   "title": "Venezuela leader end of 2026?",
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   "title": "NATO x Russia military clash?",
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  {
   "title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed?",
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   "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement?",
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   "title": "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?",
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   "leader": "Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani",
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  {
   "title": "Xi Jinping out before 2027?",
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   "leader": "Through September 30",
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  {
   "title": "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?",
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   "title": "Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
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  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place",
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  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
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   "leader": "Yes",
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  {
   "title": "Next Prime Minister of Sweden",
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  {
   "title": "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?",
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   "title": "US-Yemen ceasefire continues?",
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   "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
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   "title": "Iran leadership change?",
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   "title": "Bulgaria Presidential Election",
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  {
   "title": "Maduro Prison Time?",
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   "title": "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?",
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   "leader": "Iran Reconstruction Funding",
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   "title": "Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner",
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   "leader": "Kerry-Lynne Findlay",
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  {
   "title": "Next leader out of power before 2027?",
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   "leader": "Netanyahu - Israel PM",
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  {
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine peace talks?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
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  {
   "title": "Crude Oil all time high?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
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  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583",
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   "title": "Will Russia invade a NATO country?",
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   "title": "Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?",
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   "title": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
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   "title": "Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia?",
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   "leader": "September 28",
   "probability": 0.555,
   "change_24h": 0.14,
   "volume_24h": 22097.53,
   "volume": 113427.68,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Netanyahu visit New York City?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-netanyahu-visit-new-york-city-byptptpt-20260722053445708",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-netanyahu-visit-new-york-city-byptptpt-20260722053445708",
   "leader": "By September 30",
   "probability": 0.993,
   "change_24h": 0.012,
   "volume_24h": 20344.41,
   "volume": 456776.88,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place",
   "leader": "Renan Santos",
   "probability": 0.44,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 18685.25,
   "volume": 1420654.57,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-20260916",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-20260916",
   "leader": "15s+",
   "probability": 0.43,
   "change_24h": 0.155,
   "volume_24h": 18672.68,
   "volume": 23706.65,
   "end_date": "2026-10-08T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Russia military action against EU country?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-military-action-against-eu-country-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-military-action-against-eu-country-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.2,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 18368.56,
   "volume": 50408.05,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.064,
   "change_24h": -0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 18263.68,
   "volume": 311295.14,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.075,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 16933.31,
   "volume": 2810714.89,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
   "leader": "Flavio Bolsonaro",
   "probability": 0.9805,
   "change_24h": 0.002,
   "volume_24h": 16570.43,
   "volume": 698722.97,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump meets with Putin?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-meets-with-putin-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-meets-with-putin-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.74,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 16475.52,
   "volume": 293905.93,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2026",
   "probability": 0.87,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 16397.12,
   "volume": 16397.12,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will Trump meet with in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026",
   "leader": "Vladimir Putin",
   "probability": 0.725,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume_24h": 15480.43,
   "volume": 1140926.34,
   "end_date": "2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran charges Hormuz fees?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-charges-hormuz-fees/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.25,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume_24h": 14831.9,
   "volume": 3089370.35,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-placeptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-placeptptpt",
   "leader": "USA",
   "probability": 0.435,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 14792.26,
   "volume": 14792.26,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next",
   "leader": "No meeting before 2027",
   "probability": 0.925,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 14528.29,
   "volume": 3560393.74,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US strike on Mexico?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-strike-on-mexico/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-mexico-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.095,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 13839.67,
   "volume": 3478176.18,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026",
   "leader": "By June 30, 2027",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 13780.61,
   "volume": 3897876.88,
   "end_date": "2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthis enter Aden?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/houthis-enter-aden/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.23,
   "change_24h": -0.095,
   "volume_24h": 13625.06,
   "volume": 314012.33,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575",
   "leader": "By September 30",
   "probability": 0.0735,
   "change_24h": -0.068,
   "volume_24h": 13538.57,
   "volume": 1316005.24,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31",
   "leader": "December 31",
   "probability": 0.9095,
   "change_24h": -0.018,
   "volume_24h": 12507.49,
   "volume": 278154.89,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.125,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 11309.81,
   "volume": 412384.64,
   "end_date": "2026-12-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.295,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 11019.18,
   "volume": 1748015.53,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.295,
   "change_24h": 0.035,
   "volume_24h": 10379.16,
   "volume": 46017.43,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "NATO article 5 before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.06,
   "change_24h": -0.0055,
   "volume_24h": 10276.15,
   "volume": 262031.75,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Trump visit Greenland?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-visit-greenland-by-march-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-visit-greenland-by-march-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.11,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 10168.86,
   "volume": 311666.08,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114",
   "leader": "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026",
   "probability": 0.805,
   "change_24h": 0.04,
   "volume_24h": 10035.49,
   "volume": 462612.9,
   "end_date": "2027-02-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture Orikhiv?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-capture-orikhiv/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-orikhiv-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.29,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume_24h": 9755.94,
   "volume": 346578.42,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Ukraine target Moscow?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-september-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-september-2026",
   "leader": "September 30",
   "probability": 0.295,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 9700.6,
   "volume": 9700.6,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran leader end of 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-leader-end-of-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "Mojtaba Khamenei",
   "probability": 0.8485,
   "change_24h": 0.003,
   "volume_24h": 9450.38,
   "volume": 39545135.71,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-any-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260819",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-any-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260819",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.88,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 8793.63,
   "volume": 263127.07,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Another Iranian Ambassador expelled?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/another-iranian-diplomat-expelled-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/another-iranian-diplomat-expelled-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.215,
   "change_24h": -0.055,
   "volume_24h": 8750.6,
   "volume": 41618.65,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel military action against Lebanon?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-onptptpt-20260903",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-onptptpt-20260903",
   "leader": "September 23",
   "probability": 0.94,
   "change_24h": 0.15,
   "volume_24h": 8672.44,
   "volume": 545357.23,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-september-20260729163823944",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-september-20260729163823944",
   "leader": "25 bps increase",
   "probability": 0.9585,
   "change_24h": -0.0055,
   "volume_24h": 8244.36,
   "volume": 102898.69,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.195,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 7765.93,
   "volume": 7204374.08,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory",
   "leader": "Lula da Silva <5%",
   "probability": 0.53,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 7732.86,
   "volume": 582837.57,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture Dobropillia?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dobropillia-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dobropillia-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.165,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 7595.1,
   "volume": 23501.85,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-flavio-bolsonaro-vote-share",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-flavio-bolsonaro-vote-share",
   "leader": "39%+",
   "probability": 0.865,
   "change_24h": -0.05,
   "volume_24h": 7488.04,
   "volume": 77652.21,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.055,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 7337.33,
   "volume": 3258850.62,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-october-20260729164521631",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-october-20260729164521631",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.505,
   "change_24h": 0.27,
   "volume_24h": 7264.89,
   "volume": 71252.21,
   "end_date": "2026-10-28T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-blockade-lifted-before-xi-visits-us",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-blockade-lifted-before-xi-visits-us",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.001,
   "change_24h": -0.0195,
   "volume_24h": 7160.04,
   "volume": 19213.0,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september",
   "leader": "0-5",
   "probability": 0.845,
   "change_24h": 0.105,
   "volume_24h": 7099.88,
   "volume": 57540.37,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-december-31-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-december-31-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.06,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 6829.5,
   "volume": 25732.4,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.004,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 6544.5,
   "volume": 2450151.31,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump and Pezeshkian meet by September 30?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-and-pezeshkian-meet-by-september-30",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-and-pezeshkian-meet-by-september-30",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0515,
   "change_24h": -0.1585,
   "volume_24h": 6541.54,
   "volume": 6541.54,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will Trump meet with in September?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-september-20260826",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-september-20260826",
   "leader": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy",
   "probability": 0.9975,
   "change_24h": 0.002,
   "volume_24h": 6305.37,
   "volume": 168267.71,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Quebec General Election Winner",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner",
   "leader": "PQ",
   "probability": 0.925,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 6169.82,
   "volume": 1023139.23,
   "end_date": "2026-10-06T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by",
   "leader": "December 31",
   "probability": 0.175,
   "change_24h": -0.03,
   "volume_24h": 6001.7,
   "volume": 82051.09,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0035,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 5945.04,
   "volume": 2181320.05,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US military action against Cuba?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-strike-on-cuba/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-cuba-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.145,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 5833.0,
   "volume": 7419449.54,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel military action against Beirut?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.165,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 5662.73,
   "volume": 381808.44,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-september-28",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-september-28",
   "leader": "190-209",
   "probability": 0.295,
   "change_24h": -0.205,
   "volume_24h": 5419.03,
   "volume": 5419.03,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.0335,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_24h": 5336.22,
   "volume": 22115333.63,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won",
   "leader": "PL",
   "probability": 0.84,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 5132.56,
   "volume": 303421.83,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.07,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 5005.72,
   "volume": 529646.9,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.065,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 4934.18,
   "volume": 26238966.95,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthis seize an oil tanker?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-seize-an-oil-tanker-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-seize-an-oil-tanker-by",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.49,
   "change_24h": 0.22,
   "volume_24h": 4881.99,
   "volume": 72252.33,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.055,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 4867.02,
   "volume": 3368818.8,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-united-arab-emirates-byptptpt-20260907",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-united-arab-emirates-byptptpt-20260907",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.285,
   "change_24h": -0.32,
   "volume_24h": 4859.64,
   "volume": 11320.53,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T19:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit-20260916",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit-20260916",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.008,
   "change_24h": 0.0025,
   "volume_24h": 4837.17,
   "volume": 10461.43,
   "end_date": "2026-10-08T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will Trump speak to in September?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-speak-to-in-september",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-speak-to-in-september",
   "leader": "Xi Jinping",
   "probability": 0.9975,
   "change_24h": 0.0025,
   "volume_24h": 4826.0,
   "volume": 171833.68,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Hezbollah disarm?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.08,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 4708.82,
   "volume": 3062616.55,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia enter Mykolaivka?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-mykolaivka-byptptpt-20260805154948089",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-mykolaivka-byptptpt-20260805154948089",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.825,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 4637.28,
   "volume": 233485.9,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.275,
   "change_24h": -0.155,
   "volume_24h": 4623.47,
   "volume": 369390.21,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-by-end-of-xi-summit",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-endorses-chinas-claim-to-taiwan-by-end-of-xi-summit",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.014,
   "change_24h": -0.009,
   "volume_24h": 4407.13,
   "volume": 25988.11,
   "end_date": "2026-10-08T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-the-white-house-state-dinner-for-xi-jinping",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-the-white-house-state-dinner-for-xi-jinping",
   "leader": "Tim Cook",
   "probability": 0.9835,
   "change_24h": 0.129,
   "volume_24h": 4298.41,
   "volume": 20494.88,
   "end_date": "2026-10-08T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-december-20260908230600001",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-december-20260908230600001",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.515,
   "change_24h": 0.14,
   "volume_24h": 3963.52,
   "volume": 15732.56,
   "end_date": "2026-12-09T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture Lyman?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.065,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 3718.99,
   "volume": 3069034.3,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109",
   "leader": "By September 30",
   "probability": 0.0065,
   "change_24h": -0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 3391.22,
   "volume": 161192.3,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-september-28",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-september-28",
   "leader": "<20",
   "probability": 0.315,
   "change_24h": -0.185,
   "volume_24h": 3220.99,
   "volume": 3220.99,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel military action against Syria?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.31,
   "change_24h": -0.435,
   "volume_24h": 3026.39,
   "volume": 63161.38,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/venezuelan-oil-added-to-strategic-petroleum-reserve-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/venezuelan-oil-added-to-strategic-petroleum-reserve-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By September 30",
   "probability": 0.1915,
   "change_24h": 0.187,
   "volume_24h": 3001.42,
   "volume": 5715.6,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-lula-da-silva-vote-share",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-lula-da-silva-vote-share",
   "leader": "44%+",
   "probability": 0.53,
   "change_24h": 0.18,
   "volume_24h": 2901.33,
   "volume": 11357.99,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-20260916",
   "leader": "September 29",
   "probability": 0.87,
   "change_24h": 0.665,
   "volume_24h": 2655.74,
   "volume": 158728.37,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Venezuela",
   "probability": 0.14,
   "change_24h": 0.045,
   "volume_24h": 2556.14,
   "volume": 806719.96,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Nothing Ever Happens: September",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-september-27",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-september-27",
   "leader": "Nothing",
   "probability": 0.979,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 2542.58,
   "volume": 2542.58,
   "end_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-renan-santos-vote-share",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-renan-santos-vote-share",
   "leader": "4-6%",
   "probability": 0.215,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 2537.56,
   "volume": 92152.93,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Yoon out of custody before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-of-custody-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-of-custody-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.059,
   "change_24h": -0.0135,
   "volume_24h": 2528.89,
   "volume": 210178.55,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Korea decision in October?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-korea-decision-in-october",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-korea-decision-in-october",
   "leader": "No Change",
   "probability": 0.68,
   "change_24h": 0.095,
   "volume_24h": 2312.41,
   "volume": 26948.44,
   "end_date": "2026-10-22T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/zhang-youxia-sentenced-to-prison-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/zhang-youxia-sentenced-to-prison-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.145,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 2221.79,
   "volume": 214356.35,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government",
   "leader": "AfD",
   "probability": 0.445,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume_24h": 2042.84,
   "volume": 42328.37,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.056,
   "change_24h": -0.0025,
   "volume_24h": 2031.85,
   "volume": 3431659.88,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-berlin-state-government",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-berlin-state-government",
   "leader": "Grüne",
   "probability": 0.958,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 1968.26,
   "volume": 14617.36,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/erdoan-out-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1892.65,
   "volume": 640855.9,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Modi out by December 31, 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/modi-out-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/modi-out-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.067,
   "change_24h": 0.013,
   "volume_24h": 1656.76,
   "volume": 254852.03,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-mecklenburg-vorpommern-state-government",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-mecklenburg-vorpommern-state-government",
   "leader": "Linke",
   "probability": 0.965,
   "change_24h": 0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 1621.68,
   "volume": 14516.18,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran Nuke before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": -0.0045,
   "volume_24h": 1439.88,
   "volume": 1315717.88,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.115,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1433.11,
   "volume": 3239056.12,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "China Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-inflation-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "0.1 – 0.5%",
   "probability": 0.2815,
   "change_24h": 0.05,
   "volume_24h": 1365.77,
   "volume": 94550.3,
   "end_date": "2027-01-11T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Quebec General Election: Second Place",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-second-place-20260825152158",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-second-place-20260825152158",
   "leader": "PLQ",
   "probability": 0.82,
   "change_24h": -0.075,
   "volume_24h": 1270.62,
   "volume": 35203.19,
   "end_date": "2026-10-06T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Augusto Cury Vote Share?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-augusto-cury-vote-share",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-augusto-cury-vote-share",
   "leader": "4-6%",
   "probability": 0.4,
   "change_24h": -0.105,
   "volume_24h": 1233.27,
   "volume": 12650.05,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Masoud Pezeshkian arrested by September 28?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/masoud-pezeshkian-arrested-by-september-28",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/masoud-pezeshkian-arrested-by-september-28",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0055,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1230.53,
   "volume": 1230.53,
   "end_date": "2026-09-29T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Romanian PM Bolojan out?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.9215,
   "change_24h": 0.068,
   "volume_24h": 1223.9,
   "volume": 853573.87,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ren-zhengfei-confirmed-outside-china-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ren-zhengfei-confirmed-outside-china-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.125,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume_24h": 1215.96,
   "volume": 3808.73,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Japan Decision in October?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/events/bank-of-japan-october-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.825,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1137.33,
   "volume": 136081.56,
   "end_date": "2026-10-30T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.14,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 1132.56,
   "volume": 83314.75,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T22:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/dutch-house-of-representatives-dissolved-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/dutch-house-of-representatives-dissolved-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.092,
   "change_24h": 0.012,
   "volume_24h": 1122.72,
   "volume": 26193.11,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-4th-place",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-4th-place",
   "leader": "Renan Santos",
   "probability": 0.345,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1071.15,
   "volume": 1071.15,
   "end_date": "2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eu-country-blames-russia-for-new-sabotage-attack-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eu-country-blames-russia-for-new-sabotage-attack-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.645,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 1071.06,
   "volume": 26662.79,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.14,
   "change_24h": -0.035,
   "volume_24h": 1068.57,
   "volume": 4064808.81,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.165,
   "change_24h": -0.035,
   "volume_24h": 1044.7,
   "volume": 2890249.89,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-netanyahu-use-a-visual-aid-during-his-unga-speech",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-netanyahu-use-a-visual-aid-during-his-unga-speech",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.87,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1042.16,
   "volume": 1042.16,
   "end_date": "2026-09-25T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Netanyahu and Pezeshkian meet by September 30?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-and-pezeshkian-meet-by-september-30",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-and-pezeshkian-meet-by-september-30",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0195,
   "change_24h": -0.0555,
   "volume_24h": 1040.36,
   "volume": 1120.36,
   "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukraine-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukraine-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.028,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 1012.97,
   "volume": 189988.85,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-afd-be-part-of-a-german-state-government-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-afd-be-part-of-a-german-state-government-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.415,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 929.47,
   "volume": 35166.02,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260723214807932",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.27,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 876.03,
   "volume": 482875.5,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
   "leader": "Vietnam",
   "probability": 0.182,
   "change_24h": -0.0115,
   "volume_24h": 851.73,
   "volume": 396466.06,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "New pandemic in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.055,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 820.67,
   "volume": 1106090.61,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-win-a-seat-in-the-2026-knesset-elections",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-win-a-seat-in-the-2026-knesset-elections",
   "leader": "RZP-Zehut",
   "probability": 0.89,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 819.97,
   "volume": 5246.19,
   "end_date": "2026-10-27T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by",
   "leader": "December 31",
   "probability": 0.14,
   "change_24h": 0.035,
   "volume_24h": 790.18,
   "volume": 1092936.18,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-yashar-of-seats",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-yashar-of-seats",
   "leader": "22-23",
   "probability": 0.22,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 739.71,
   "volume": 10246.91,
   "end_date": "2026-10-27T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Netanyahu out?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/netanyahu-out-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-before-2027",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.505,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 713.17,
   "volume": 124403331.48,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.07,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume_24h": 700.25,
   "volume": 51188.55,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026",
   "leader": "Germany",
   "probability": 0.24,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 696.25,
   "volume": 662102.66,
   "end_date": "2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.09,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 666.17,
   "volume": 759636.59,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.075,
   "change_24h": -0.03,
   "volume_24h": 570.22,
   "volume": 442213.37,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/of-seats-won-by-plq-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/of-seats-won-by-plq-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election",
   "leader": "32-35",
   "probability": 0.33,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 569.25,
   "volume": 25978.42,
   "end_date": "2026-10-06T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel Election: Together # of seats?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-together-of-seats",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-together-of-seats",
   "leader": "11-13",
   "probability": 0.32,
   "change_24h": 0.145,
   "volume_24h": 551.83,
   "volume": 4307.29,
   "end_date": "2026-10-27T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government",
   "leader": "Yashar",
   "probability": 0.685,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 540.51,
   "volume": 3272.58,
   "end_date": "2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Masoud Pezeshkian out?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/masoud-pezeshkian-out-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/masoud-pezeshkian-out-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.08,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 535.58,
   "volume": 870998.95,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-rzp-zehut-of-seats",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-rzp-zehut-of-seats",
   "leader": "6-7",
   "probability": 0.52,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 484.6,
   "volume": 8135.14,
   "end_date": "2026-10-27T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory-2",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory-2",
   "leader": "PQ 30-39",
   "probability": 0.285,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 431.05,
   "volume": 431.05,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0675,
   "change_24h": 0.0025,
   "volume_24h": 425.74,
   "volume": 303033.73,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Charlesbourg Quebec National Assembly Election Winner",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/charlesbourg-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/charlesbourg-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner",
   "leader": "Éloïse Coulombe",
   "probability": 0.57,
   "change_24h": 0.03,
   "volume_24h": 420.17,
   "volume": 9509.03,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.07,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_24h": 404.0,
   "volume": 548667.76,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-annual-inflation-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "5.00-5.49%",
   "probability": 0.4505,
   "change_24h": 0.007,
   "volume_24h": 378.73,
   "volume": 124294.89,
   "end_date": "2027-01-13T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel Election: Shas vote share?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-shas-vote-share",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-shas-vote-share",
   "leader": "<6%",
   "probability": 0.41,
   "change_24h": 0.09,
   "volume_24h": 369.79,
   "volume": 871.83,
   "end_date": "2026-10-27T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027",
   "leader": "New Zealand",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 369.74,
   "volume": 760475.67,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-morocco-invested",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-morocco-invested",
   "leader": "Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri",
   "probability": 0.587,
   "change_24h": 0.031,
   "volume_24h": 331.46,
   "volume": 6350.0,
   "end_date": "2026-09-23T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Prime Minister of Latvia?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-latvia",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-latvia",
   "leader": "Andris Kulbergs",
   "probability": 0.885,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume_24h": 323.55,
   "volume": 5177.5,
   "end_date": "2026-10-03T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/cote-du-sud-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/cote-du-sud-quebec-national-assembly-election-winner",
   "leader": "Valérie Hamel",
   "probability": 0.54,
   "change_24h": -0.035,
   "volume_24h": 316.07,
   "volume": 5153.15,
   "end_date": "2026-10-05T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0245,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_24h": 315.34,
   "volume": 1086132.96,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-bulgaria-election",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-bulgaria-election",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.115,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 307.96,
   "volume": 307.96,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma API; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}