May 02, 2026
This May 2026 snapshot compares displayed prices, volume, liquidity, and deadlines across several Iran-related prediction-market contracts. The concentration of these contracts in the reported volume data describes activity at that time, not participant identity or a recommended position.
The US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 market jumped 4% in the last 24 hours to reach displayed odds of 22.5%. The parallel May 15 contract was displayed at 8.5%, creating a deadline comparison rather than a direct equivalence.
The two-week difference between these contracts may contribute to the divergence, along with their separate order books and exact resolution terms. The May 31 contract reported over $866,000 in daily volume and $467,091 in liquidity. Those figures measure activity and depth, but do not prove that the displayed view is correct.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz normalization markets tell a darker story. The May 15 contract trades at just 5.5% probability, down 12% over the past week. Even more telling, the April 30 contract has essentially flatlined at 0.1% - the market has written off any near-term resolution.
This shipping chokepoint handles about 21% of global petroleum passes, so these low odds suggest traders expect continued disruption with significant economic implications. The $35 million in total volume on the April contract shows how much attention this drew before reality set in.
The displayed prediction-market odds can be compared without treating them as a single causal narrative: - Extremely low odds (2.8%) on regime change in Iran by May 31 - Very low odds (5.5%) on Strait of Hormuz normalization - Yet relatively higher odds (22.5%) on a US-Iran peace deal
This combination suggests traders believe diplomatic breakthrough is more likely than military resolution or organic de-escalation. The peace deal odds rising while Hormuz normalization odds fall could indicate expectations of a negotiated settlement that takes time to implement.
The volume patterns are equally revealing. These Iran-related markets are pulling in $3-4 million in daily volume combined, dwarfing most other contracts. For comparison, the Detroit Pistons NBA Finals market - typically a high-volume sports bet - saw just $542,000 in the last 24 hours.
The 6-7x volume comparison shows that these geopolitical contracts were more active than the cited sports contract in this snapshot. It does not identify participant sophistication, motive, or any exposure outside the prediction market.
The 14 percentage point gap between the May 15 and May 31 peace-deal contracts is a research comparison, not an automatic opportunity. Interpreting it requires checking both rule sets, accepted sources, deadline mechanics, and the possibility that a diplomatic process changes over time.
The Strait of Hormuz markets were displayed at 5.5% or lower, but a low price still carries nonzero tail risk and may be affected by spread, depth, and ambiguous reporting. Price alone does not justify either side of a contract.
The Telegram channel publishes watchlist observations as these situations develop. Verify each update against the live market, contract rules, and primary sources.
Middle East geopolitical markets tend to be more volatile because they're driven by breaking news, diplomatic statements, and military movements that can shift sentiment rapidly. Unlike sports or economic indicators with scheduled outcomes, these markets react to 24/7 news flow and often have less historical data for traders to anchor their probabilities.
Liquidity varies across the contracts. The US-Iran peace-deal market reported $467,091, while the Strait of Hormuz markets were around $400,000. These figures indicate available depth at a snapshot in time; actual price impact depends on order size, spread, and the live order book.
Different odds for related events can reflect timeline sensitivity, separate liquidity, or different resolution criteria. In this snapshot, the May 15 and May 31 peace-deal markets showed 8.5% and 22.5%. The spread is not automatically an arbitrage because both contracts can resolve independently under their own rules.
Volume records turnover, while probability is inferred from price; neither guarantees favorable execution or a return. Compare spread, depth, fees, deadline, resolution risk, and maximum loss. This article provides no portfolio allocation or preferred mix.
Polymarket odds can move rapidly around major news, especially in geopolitical contracts. A timestamped price is therefore only a snapshot. Rapid movement does not prove that the latest price is accurate or actionable; the source, publication time, and resolution terms still require review.