Polymarket Fed June 2026 Odds Archive

The Polymarket Fed June 2026 markets are closed. The no-change YES contract resolved at $1.00; the 25 bps cut, 50+ bps cut, 25 bps hike, and 50+ bps hike YES contracts resolved at $0.00.

• This is a historical settlement snapshot, not a live forecast or trade signal.
• The FOMC event took place June 16-17, 2026; the policy statement was scheduled for June 17 at 14:00 ET.
• Use the archive to review the event structure and research process, not to infer current Fed odds.
• Settlement source: closed Polymarket Gamma API markets, archived July 14, 2026.

Final market result: no change resolved YES. The alternative cut and hike contracts resolved NO.

• Before an event: compare the leading contract with spread, depth, and the official resolution source.
• At settlement: distinguish a resolved $1.00/$0.00 price from a tradable pre-event probability.
• After an event: preserve timestamps and rules so hindsight does not erase uncertainty that existed beforehand.
• For current markets: use the biggest-movers watchlist and verify every market on Polymarket.

• Start with the pre-event leading contract, but record the timestamp: a resolved $1.00 outcome is not evidence that the result was certain beforehand.
• Compare macro releases with liquidity changes before the event. Thin markets can move without a durable probability change.
• Use the Polymarket profit calculator to translate a price into win-case upside, lose-case downside, and expected value before sizing any idea.
• Use the biggest movers watchlist to see whether Fed odds are moving with broader macro or geopolitical markets.
• Confirm the official schedule on the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar.