Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Winner: Navi Pillay — Resolution & Final Board
Who won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, how the $32.3 million Polymarket market resolved, and the markets still trading ahead of the October 12 economics decision.
Published July 16, 2026 · Event window: October 5–12, 2026 · Decision-day record October 9, 2026 · Next: economics decision-day October 12
The answer first
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Navanethem "Navi" Pillay — cited "for her efforts to promote peace and international law" — at the scheduled Friday, October 9, 11:00 CEST announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo. The Polymarket winner market resolved after the announcement: exactly one of its 71 contracts settled YES — "Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 99.9¢ — while every other candidate, including announcement-eve leader Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (16.9¢), resolved No. The event finished with about $32,310,114 in cumulative volume, roughly $4,464,499 of it in the final 24 hours. The winner's own contract had carried only about $38,770 of lifetime volume — 0.12% of the event total — while the most-traded contract (Donald Trump, $7,958,452) resolved No: the classic wide-open-field finish. A companion market on whether the prize would go to an individual at all resolved YES (it had traded at 51.5¢ the day before), and the economics-prize market stays live until its October 12 decision.
Official 2026 Nobel announcement timeline
Awarded jointly to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel by the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet (11:30 CEST).
Awarded to Francis Halzen by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (11:45 CEST).
Awarded to Henri B. Kagan and Kenso Soai by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (11:45 CEST).
Awarded to Anne Carson by the Swedish Academy (13:00 CEST), hours before this snapshot.
Awarded to Navanethem "Navi" Pillay, cited "for her efforts to promote peace and international law," by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo (11:00 CEST) — the market below resolved to her contract the same day.
11:45 CEST at the earliest, announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences — a live prediction market exists for this prize too (see the market map below).
October 9 decision-day record: winner and settlement
The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2026 Peace Prize at the scheduled 11:00 CEST announcement in Oslo, and the Polymarket event Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 resolved without dispute: the "Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" contract settled YES at 99.9¢ and the other 70 contracts all settled No (Gamma resolution state checked at the 2026-10-09, ~14:05 UTC check).
Winner
Navanethem "Navi" Pillay — cited "for her efforts to promote peace and international law" (nobelprize.org).
Resolution
Exactly 1 of 71 contracts resolved YES — Pillay at 99.9¢. All 70 others, including every name in the tracked top ten, resolved No.
Final cumulative volume
≈ $32,310,114 across the event (+$4,464,499 vs the October 8 snapshot).
Final 24-hour volume
≈ $4,464,499 traded in the last 24 hours — ≈4× the October 8 pace and ≈25× the October 3 pace.
How the board settled
| Contract | October 8 price | Lifetime volume | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navi Pillay | outside the tracked top ten | $38,770 | YES (99.9¢) |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 16.9¢ | $280,941 | No |
| Mykola Kuleba | 8.5¢ | $228,346 | No |
| Save the Children | 8.1¢ | $96,996 | No |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 5.3¢ | $1,987,360 | No |
| the International Court of Justice | 4.3¢ | $1,213,007 | No |
| Donald Trump | 0.7¢ | $7,958,452 | No |
Reading notes: first, the winner was a deep longshot — the Pillay contract sat outside the tracked top ten and carried about 0.12% of the event's lifetime volume, so almost none of the money was on the outcome that landed. Second, volume is still not probability: the two largest books by lifetime volume (Donald Trump at $7,958,452, Yulia Navalnaya at $1,987,360) both resolved No — heavy trading marks disagreement and churn, not consensus. Third, wide fields stay wide: when the leader trades at 16.9¢, more than four in five cents of priced probability sit outside the top name — and on October 9 the prize landed outside it. All resolution data are timestamped Gamma state, not official Nobel output.
October 8 snapshot: the Peace Prize market on announcement eve
The Polymarket event Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 lists 71 candidate contracts and had traded about $27,845,615 by the 2026-10-08, 14:11 UTC snapshot. The board re-priced again since October 3: the leader extended its lead, two new names reached the top four, and 24-hour turnover jumped again. 32 of the 71 outcomes carried a displayed YES price of at least 0.1 cents.
Cumulative volume
≈ $27,845,615 across all candidate contracts in the event (+$2.1 million vs October 3; +$4.40 million vs August 18).
Liquidity
≈ $1,872,767 standing liquidity at the snapshot time.
24-hour volume
≈ $1,116,226 traded in the 24 hours before the snapshot — ≈6.3× the October 3 pace and ≈35× the August 18 pace.
Listed outcomes
71 candidate contracts, 32 with a displayed YES price of at least 0.1 cents.
| Candidate | YES price (Oct 8) | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 16.9¢ | $106,996 |
| Mykola Kuleba | 8.5¢ | $80,574 |
| Save the Children | 8.1¢ | $65,076 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 5.3¢ | $454,625 |
| the International Court of Justice | 4.3¢ | $980,988 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 3.0¢ | $33,432 |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 3.0¢ | $14,869 |
| Ilham Tohti | 2.6¢ | $30 |
| UNHCR | 2.5¢ | $10,304 |
| Doctors Without Borders | 2.2¢ | $6,421 |
Reading notes: first, volume is not probability — the most-traded single contract is still Donald Trump at about $7,197,112 of lifetime volume despite a 0.7¢ price, which usually signals disagreement and churn rather than consensus. Second, thin books can print misleading last trades on announcement eve: the International Peace Research Association contract's last trade was 12.3¢ while its order book sat at roughly 0.4¢/2.5¢ — its displayed price is about 1.5¢ on just $6,716 of lifetime volume, so last trades in shallow books are not consensus. Third, both individuals and organizations are listed, so the joint-award precedence rules below matter as much as the prices. All figures are timestamped market data, not official Nobel forecasts, and they will keep moving until the October 9 announcement.
Four snapshots, one trajectory
| Snapshot | Cumulative volume | 24-hour volume | Priced (≥0.1¢) | Leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16, 2026 | — (no verified live market) | — | — | — |
| August 18, 2026 | $23,444,338 | $31,908 | 20 | Yulia Navalnaya (8.5¢) |
| October 3, 2026 | $25,770,720 | $176,713 | 23 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (15.4¢) |
| October 8, 2026 | $27,845,615 | $1,116,226 | 32 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (16.9¢) |
| October 9, 2026 | $32,310,114 | $4,464,499 | — | Resolved: Navi Pillay (99.9¢) |
The pattern is the scheduled-demand shape this page was built for: volume compounds steadily between milestones, then 24-hour turnover multiplies as the fixed announcement date approaches — $31,908 at an eight-week horizon, roughly $176,713 at two days, and about $1,116,226 on announcement eve. The October 9 decision-day record above is the capture that settled it.
What moved since October 3
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms extend the lead
The leader rose from 15.4 cents to 16.9¢ ($106,996 contract volume) — still the only candidate above 13 cents.
Mykola Kuleba climbs into second
8.5¢ with about $80,574 of contract volume — a new name at the front of the chasing group since the October 3 snapshot, ahead of Save the Children (8.1¢).
Navalnaya rebounds, ICJ eases
Yulia Navalnaya recovered from 3.8 cents to 5.3¢; the International Court of Justice slipped from 6.0 cents to 4.3¢; UNRWA holds near 1.9¢.
The priced field widens
Outcomes carrying a displayed price of at least 0.1 cents grew from 23 on October 3 to 32 at this snapshot — more longshots are being priced as the announcement approaches.
Turnover accelerates into the announcement
24-hour volume rose from about $176,713 on October 3 to about $1,116,226 — ≈6.3× in five days — exactly the announcement-eve acceleration the trajectory table predicted.
The market map grew
Since October 3, physics and chemistry 2026 markets launched and closed after their announcements, an economics-prize market is live ahead of October 12, and a companion market on whether the Peace Prize goes to an individual at all trades near even odds — see the market map below.
The rest of the Nobel market map (October 9 check)
On October 3 the Peace Prize event was the only live, verified Nobel 2026 market. That changed during Nobel Week — re-checked live on October 9, after the Peace resolution:
Economics Prize Winner 2026 — live
The second winner market keeps trading ahead of the October 12 announcement: about $69,289 volume, $39,659 liquidity, and $7,048 in 24 hours at the October 9 check — still well under the Peace market's size. Current board: Ariel Pakes (22.5¢), Susan Athey (16.0¢), Michael Woodford (11.5¢).
Individual vs organization — resolved YES
The companion market on whether the Peace Prize goes to an individual at all resolved YES at 100¢ after the announcement — it had traded at 51.5¢ the day before, on about $23,792 of final volume. The 2026 prize went to an individual, not an organization.
Physics and chemistry — launched and closed
Nobel Physics Prize Winner 2026 and Nobel Chemistry Prize Winner 2026 markets did launch during the week and are now closed, settling after the October 6 and October 7 announcements — evidence that category markets appear, price, and resolve on schedule.
Literature — no market found
No live 2026 literature market appeared in our October 8 check; the prize went to Anne Carson today without a Polymarket contract to price it.
How the Peace Prize market resolves
The market's written rules are the settlement source, and this event uses several precedence rules that a casual reader would miss. Verified against the event's published description on October 8, 2026 — unchanged since August:
Official announcement decides
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee; the first official announcement is the resolution source.
One winner, even for a shared prize
If multiple listed recipients jointly receive the prize, the contract still resolves to a single winner under fixed precedence rules — not to every co-laureate.
Five-name precedence rule
If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk is among the recipients, the market resolves to the highest-ranked of those five in that exact order.
Individual beats organization
If none of those five wins and the prize is shared by at least one listed individual and one listed organization, the individual takes precedence. If all co-recipients are the same type, alphabetical order by last name or entity name decides.
Hard deadline
If no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.” The event's stated end date is April 1, 2027.
Why interest peaks today
Three forces made this a scheduled-demand event rather than a news-driven one. First, the calendar was fixed: the announcement dates have been public since February, so date-first queries ("who won the Nobel Peace Prize", "Navi Pillay") crest on the announcement day itself — today. Second, the market completed its maturation arc: 24-hour turnover rose from about $31,900 in mid-August to about $176,700 on October 3, about $1,116,226 on announcement eve, and roughly $4,464,499 across the final day as the field settled. Third, the winner was a deep longshot: a contract outside the tracked top ten carrying about 0.12% of event volume resolved YES — exactly the kind of finish that sends everyone, traders and non-traders alike, looking for sourced context. The economics-prize market extends the wave through October 12.
How to research Nobel prediction odds
1. Read the contract first
Confirm category, named outcome, official source, deadline, joint-winner treatment, and cancellation language.
2. Timestamp the board
Save price, bid/ask spread, depth, volume, and capture time. A last trade alone can be misleading in a wide field.
3. Separate evidence types
Official dates are facts. Published work, expert commentary, prizes, and public campaigns are signals of unequal quality—not proof.
4. Expect attention waves
Search and market interest typically rises through the announcement week; the 24-hour volume jump since August is that pattern completing.
5. Compare probability carefully
Use our prediction-market odds guide before treating cents as a clean probability estimate.
6. Check large moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can surface changes if Nobel markets become active, but a move is a research prompt, not a signal.
7. Keep award calendars separate
The Ballon d'Or 2026 guide tracks a distinct late-October football-award cycle with its own settlement rules.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Navanethem "Navi" Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, cited "for her efforts to promote peace and international law." The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced the award at the scheduled 11:00 CEST announcement in Oslo on Friday, October 9, 2026.
When are the 2026 Nobel Prizes announced?
The official announcement period runs October 5–12, 2026. Medicine is October 5, physics October 6, chemistry October 7, literature October 8, peace October 9, and economic sciences October 12.
Who has won the 2026 Nobel Prizes so far?
As of October 9, 2026: Medicine went jointly to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel (October 5); Physics to Francis Halzen (October 6); Chemistry to Henri B. Kagan and Kenso Soai (October 7); Literature to Anne Carson (October 8); and the Peace Prize to Navanethem "Navi" Pillay (October 9). Only the prize in economic sciences (October 12) remains.
How did the Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market resolve?
Exactly one of the event’s 71 contracts resolved YES — "Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 99.9¢ — and all 70 others resolved No. The event finished with about $32,310,114 in cumulative volume, roughly $4,464,499 of it in the final 24 hours. The winner’s own contract had carried only about $38,770 of lifetime volume (0.12% of the event total).
Who led the market before the announcement?
At the October 8 snapshot, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms led at 16.9¢, followed by Mykola Kuleba at 8.5¢ and Save the Children at 8.1¢ — and all of them resolved No. In a 71-contract field, a 16.9¢ leader is far from a favorite in the everyday sense, which is exactly how the announcement played out.
Is there also a market for the economics prize?
Yes. A Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026 event is live ahead of the October 12 announcement — about $69,289 in volume at the October 9 check, far smaller than the Peace Prize market was. Current board: Ariel Pakes (22.5¢), Susan Athey (16.0¢), Michael Woodford (11.5¢).
Was the market resolution disputed?
No. Gamma reports every one of the 71 contracts as closed and resolved after the announcement. None of the written precedence tiebreakers was needed — the prize went to a single listed individual — and the individual-vs-organization companion market also resolved cleanly (YES).
Does a public nomination claim prove eligibility or finalist status?
No. The Norwegian Nobel Committee says nominee information is confidential for 50 years and does not confirm current nominees. Public claims need careful sourcing.
Are market odds the same as an official Nobel forecast?
No. They are prices for rules-based contracts and may be influenced by liquidity, spreads, positioning, and incomplete information — as this market's longshot finish demonstrated.
Can an organization win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Yes. Organizations have received the Peace Prize many times — for example the World Food Programme (2020) and Nihon Hidankyo (2024). In 2026 the prize went to an individual, and the companion market asking whether the prize would go to an individual at all resolved YES after trading near even odds (51.5¢) the day before.
What is the “Other” outcome and when does it apply?
The written rules state that if no official announcement had been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market would resolve to “Other.” That clause never came into play: the market resolved on announcement day, October 9, 2026.
When will this page be refreshed?
An economics decision-day update follows on October 12, 2026 after the 11:45 CEST announcement, with a final settlement review of both markets after that. The page then stands as the 2026 record.
Related analysis on the blog
- Nobel Week's Lopsided Pair: 19.1% for Navalnaya, 0.2% for Trump — October 09, 2026
Sources and methodology
- NobelPrize.org: The 2026 Nobel Prize announcements — official October 5–12 schedule, times, and awarding institutions (press release issued February 2, 2026; re-verified October 8, 2026).
- NobelPrize.org: The Nobel Peace Prize 2026 — Navanethem "Navi" Pillay, "for her efforts to promote peace and international law" (checked October 9, 2026).
- NobelPrize.org: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2026 — Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel (checked October 8, 2026).
- NobelPrize.org: The Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 — Francis Halzen (checked October 8, 2026).
- NobelPrize.org: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2026 — Henri B. Kagan and Kenso Soai (checked October 8, 2026).
- NobelPrize.org: The Nobel Prize in Literature 2026 — Anne Carson (checked October 8, 2026).
- Norwegian Nobel Committee: Nomination — nomination process and the 50-year confidentiality rule.
- Polymarket Gamma API: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 event — volume, liquidity, prices, and published resolution rules — October 8, 14:11 UTC snapshot and the 2026-10-09 resolution check (~14:05 UTC).
- Polymarket: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — the live event page for the market tracked above.
- Methodology: July 16, 2026 checks found no active Nobel contract. The August 18, 2026 snapshot documented the verified live Peace Prize event ($23.44 million volume; Navalnaya leading at 8.5 cents). The October 3, 2026 pre-announcement refresh re-verified the calendar and rules ($25.77 million; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 15.4 cents). This October 8, 2026 final pre-announcement refresh re-verified all four announced laureates against nobelprize.org, re-captured the board ($27.85 million; leader extended), and mapped the new sibling markets (economics-prize market live; individual-vs-organization companion live; physics and chemistry markets closed after settling). All prices are timestamped snapshots; October 9 resolution figures are final market state. The October 9, 2026 decision-day update verified the official winner against nobelprize.org, confirmed all 71 contracts closed and resolved (one YES — Pillay), recorded the individual-vs-organization companion resolving YES, and re-checked the economics market ahead of October 12.