Bank of England November 2026 Decision Result: 8–1 Vote for a 25 bp Hike to 4%
The official decision record, the verified five-outcome settlement board, the resolution rules that governed it, and the history of a hike book that climbed from 80.5¢ at publication to a $1.00 settlement.
Published 2026-09-25 · Refreshed 2026-10-22 (post-CPI), 2026-11-03 (final pre-meeting), and 2026-11-05 (decision-day record, 15:10 UTC) · Earlier snapshots kept for record below · Next MPC meeting: December 17, 2026
The answer first
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Thursday, November 5, 2026 — an 8–1 vote at the meeting ending 4 November, the single dissent preferring a larger 0.5 percentage-point rise to 4.25%, announced at midday London time together with the November Monetary Policy Report. It is the first increase in more than three years. Polymarket's five-outcome market settled with the decision: the +25 bp book closed at Yes $1.00 on the event's heaviest book, $227,902, with the event closing at $666,298 cumulative volume and $177,638 on the final day (November 5, 15:10 UTC Gamma check below). The report published with the decision projects CPI inflation rising to around 5% by the middle of 2027 before falling back, with the Committee stating monetary policy “is not on a pre-set path” — Reuters' decision-day headline reporting the Bank “warns another move likely”. The pre-meeting board had climbed from 80.5¢ at the September 25 publication to 98.5¢ two days out. The market settled on the announced change in Bank Rate relative to its 3.75% pre-meeting level, resolved from official Bank of England information; the settlement board below records how each of the five books closed. A settlement price is a record of the contract, not of the vote.
Where the November meeting sits in the 2026 calendar
The 3.75% baseline is official
The Bank's rate page shows Bank Rate at 3.75% with “Next due: 5 November 2026”, verified September 25, 2026. The reviewed contracts measure the change this meeting produces against exactly that kind of pre-meeting level.
September has decided
The September 17 announcement was a 6–3 hold at 3.75% — three members again preferring +25 bp to 4% — plus a unanimous vote to wind gilt purchases down to zero. The September decision hub holds the full settled record.
A Monetary Policy Report lands with November
November 5 is an MPR round: new quarterly forecasts are published with the decision, the first since the September summary judged inflation risks “tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Report”.
One decision, five buckets
The exact Polymarket event splits the outcome into −50+ bp, −25 bp, no change, +25 bp, and +50+ bp — five independent yes/no order books, not one ranked list.
Official Bank of England November 2026 timeline
The July Monetary Policy Summary records a 6–3 vote to maintain Bank Rate, with three members preferring an increase to 4%.
The MPC holds at 3.75% with the same three +25 bp dissents, votes unanimously to reduce the stock of gilt purchases to zero (£46bn average annual pace by end-2034), and notes CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August on the Middle East energy shock, likely to rise further. Polymarket's September event settles to no change at $483,869 volume.
The ECB raised rates 25 bp on September 10, the Fed followed with a 25 bp hike on September 16, the Bank of Japan hiked to around 1.25% on September 18 — leaving the Bank of England the only major central bank that did not tighten in September.
The official calendar still names November 5 (with December 17 next), the rate page still shows 3.75%, and the verified November event is open with $227,576 cumulative volume, the +25 bp bucket at 80.5¢ the largest book.
Labour-market and activity releases land ahead of the meeting. They can move expectations and order books, but none of them substitutes for the official November 5 announcement as resolution evidence.
Recorded checks: 92.5¢ on October 15, 92.5¢ on October 16, 94.0¢ on October 17 — up from 80.5¢ at publication, with the September CPI print still unpublished. Cumulative event volume $314,851; the +25 bp bucket remains the largest book.
The ONS September bulletin reports CPI at 3.5% (up from 3.1% in August) and CPIH at 3.6% (up from 3.3%) — the highest CPI since October 2025, with transport and motor fuels the largest upward monthly contributor. It is the last consumer-inflation reading before the meeting.
The +25 bp bucket is quoted at 96.8¢/97.0¢ with the no-change book at 2.1¢–2.6¢; cumulative event volume $414,268, up from $314,851 five days earlier. Recorded for the decision-week reader; superseded by the November 3 refresh below.
Two days out, the +25 bp bucket is quoted at 98.3¢/98.7¢ with the no-change book at 1.1¢–1.8¢; cumulative event volume $451,830, liquidity $70,730. Final-week coverage frames the meeting as the first hike since 2023; superseded by the decision-day record below.
At its meeting ending 4 November 2026 the MPC voted 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 3.75% to 4% — the first increase in more than three years — with one member preferring 4.25%. The announcement, minutes, and November Monetary Policy Report were published at midday London time.
The market settled with the decision: the +25 bp book closed at Yes $1.00 on the heaviest book ($227,902); the event closed at $666,298 with $177,638 on the final day. The settlement board and the official record are below; the next MPC meeting is December 17, 2026.
The Bank's calendar lists Thursday, December 17 as the final 2026 MPC date, so a postponed November meeting would have to conclude before it to still count for this market.
What the verified November Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Bank of England decision in November? (event ID 778706, trading since July 31, 2026, scheduled to end November 5, 2026 at 23:59 UTC). It resolves on the change in Bank Rate produced by the November 2026 MPC meeting relative to its prior level, with official Bank of England information as the named source. The five buckets:
50+ bps decrease
A Bank Rate decrease classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the written rounding rules.
25 bps decrease
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
No change
No qualifying change from the specified meeting — also the fallback bucket if the meeting is cancelled or postponed past the next scheduled meeting.
25 bps increase
A qualifying increase classified as 25 basis points — the bucket that settled Yes $1.00, taking Bank Rate to 4.00%.
50+ bps increase
An increase classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after rounding.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book, so displayed YES prices need not sum to exactly 100¢.
October 17 snapshot — the hike book keeps hardening (kept for record)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0¢ | $7,537 | $27,955 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0¢ | $13,766 | $29,814 |
| No change | 6.5¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ | $102,785 | $14,681 |
| 25 bps increase | 94.0¢ | 93¢ / 95¢ | $138,192 | $17,371 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.1¢ | 0¢ / 0¢ | $52,571 | $3,846 |
$314,851
Cumulative event volume at the refresh snapshot — up 38% from the $227,576 recorded at publication, with the announcement still 19 days out.
$87,309
Event liquidity at the snapshot, concentrated in the hike and no-change books; 24-hour turnover was only $93 in the weekend lull, so depth — not daily churn — is carrying the price.
100.7¢
Sum of the five displayed YES prices at this snapshot — five independent yes/no books need not sum to 100¢, which is exactly why per-bucket rules matter.
80.5¢ → 92.5¢ → 94.0¢
The +25 bp bucket across publication (September 25) and the recorded October 15, 16, and 17 checks — a 13-cent climb in three weeks.
18¢ → 6.5¢
The no-change bucket over the same window: the market has steadily paid down the odds that the Committee waits again.
No new CPI print
The whole move predates the September CPI bulletin (scheduled October 21). Its drivers are the persistent Middle East energy shock, the second consecutive 6–3 split, and September tightening by the ECB, Fed, and BoJ.
Between the publication snapshot and this check the hike book climbed while the ONS was still publishing August data. What moved it without a new print: the energy shock the September summary flags as pushing inflation “likely to rise further over coming quarters”, a repeated 6–3 hold with three +25 bp dissents, and a September in which the ECB, Fed, and Bank of Japan all tightened while the Bank of England held. A price is crowd sentiment, not the official outcome — the October 21 print and the November 5 statement can still reprice it quickly.
October 22 snapshot — after the last CPI print before the meeting (2026-10-22 14:01 UTC Gamma check, kept for record)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | ≤0.1¢ | — / 0.2¢ | $34,577 | $8,795 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ | $49,926 | $9,580 |
| No change | 2.4¢ | 2.1¢ / 2.6¢ | $113,859 | $9,385 |
| 25 bps increase | 96.9¢ | 96.8¢ / 97.0¢ | $153,788 | $22,176 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.9¢ | 0.6¢ / 1.1¢ | $62,117 | $7,356 |
CPI 3.5%
The September print (published October 21) took CPI from 3.1% to 3.5% — the highest rate since October 2025 — with CPIH at 3.6% and core CPI at 2.8%. Transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change; restaurants and hotels partially offset.
$414,268
Cumulative event volume at this snapshot — up 32% from $314,851 in the five days since the October 17 refresh and up 82% from publication, with 24-hour turnover of $6,740 after the CPI print.
≈100.2¢
Sum of quoted mids across the five books — five independent yes/no markets need not sum to 100¢, which is why each bucket's written rules, not the headline board, control settlement.
94.0¢ → 96.8¢
The +25 bp bucket in the five days around the CPI print — the move that began without new data extended through the first post-print session.
2.1¢–2.6¢ no-change book
The no-change quotes after the print; the last recorded trade in that book (7.0¢) predates the reprice — a reminder that last-trade prices can sit away from the live book.
Liquidity thinned
Event liquidity of $57,137 sits below the $87,309 of October 17 even as the price hardened, while 24-hour turnover ($6,740 vs $93) shows the print brought activity back. Depth and conviction moved together, not volume alone.
The sequencing is now closed: the hike book climbed from 80.5¢ to 94.0¢ without any new inflation data, the September bulletin landed October 21 at CPI 3.5%, and the first post-print session quoted the hike at 96.8¢/97.0¢. Sequencing is not causation, and a 96.8¢ book still leaves a 3.2¢ path to another hold — only the November 5 statement resolves the market.
November 3 snapshot — the final pre-meeting board, two days out (2026-11-03 15:13 UTC Gamma check, kept for record)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.05¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $35,122 | $17,676 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $53,280 | $5,509 |
| No change | 1.45¢ | 1.1¢ / 1.8¢ | $125,498 | $5,649 |
| 25 bps increase | 98.5¢ | 98.3¢ / 98.7¢ | $172,957 | $17,865 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.5¢ | $64,973 | $4,489 |
$451,830
Cumulative event volume at this snapshot — up 9% from $414,268 at the October 22 refresh and roughly double the $227,576 recorded at publication, with the decision still two days out.
96.8¢ → 98.5¢
The +25 bp bucket across the twelve days since the CPI print — a further 1.7¢ of hardening with no new CPI bulletin in between; the trajectory now reads 80.5¢ → 94.0¢ → 96.8¢ → 98.5¢.
≈100.4¢
Sum of displayed YES prices across the five books — five independent yes/no markets need not sum to 100¢, which is why the written resolution rules, not the headline board, control settlement.
Liquidity rebuilt
Event liquidity of $70,730 is up 25% from $57,137 on October 22, concentrated in the hike ($17,865) and cut ($5,509 + $17,676) books; the no-change book holds $5,649.
The pre-decision lull
24-hour turnover of $1,106 is far below the $6,740 recorded after the CPI print — the same quiet the October 17 weekend showed ($93). Two days out, depth tells more than turnover.
What a 98.5¢ book is not
It is not the official outcome and not a guarantee. The books against an exactly-25 bp move still sum to about 1.9¢ — roughly a 1-in-53 displayed path — and the two prior meetings each produced a 6–3 hold.
The final week in headlines (headlines only, no figures paraphrased):
- Reuters (Nov 2): “Bank of England poised to raise rates but may push back on bets for more.”
- Yahoo Finance UK (Nov 1): “Bank of England expected to raise interest rates for first time since 2023”; The Independent (Nov 1) carried the same frame.
- The Guardian (Nov 2): “Millions in UK brace to remortgage on worse deals as rate rise looms.”
- Goldman Sachs research, reported November 2 (The Economic Times; Global Banking & Finance Review): the Bank to raise rates again in February 2027.
No new CPI bulletin landed between the October 22 refresh and this check — the October inflation print is due after the meeting — and the market's written rules are unchanged. The final 1.7¢ of repricing is conviction consolidating into decision week, amplified by the coverage above; sterling held steady into the announcement week. Sequencing, again, is not causation — only the November 5 statement resolves the market.
November 5 — the result and the settlement board (2026-11-05 15:10 UTC checks)
The decision: at its meeting ending 4 November 2026 the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 3.75% to 4.00% — the first increase in more than three years — with the single dissent voting for a larger 0.5 percentage-point rise to 4.25%. The announcement, minutes, and November Monetary Policy Report were published at midday London time on Thursday, November 5. The report projects CPI inflation to rise to around 5% by the middle of 2027 before falling back, and states monetary policy “is not on a pre-set path”.
| Bucket | Settled price | Result | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.0¢ | No | $95,679 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.0¢ | No | $116,063 |
| No change | 0.0¢ | No | $156,907 |
| 25 bps increase | $1.00 | Yes | $227,902 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.0¢ | No | $69,747 |
$666,298
Final cumulative event volume — up 47% from $451,830 two days out and nearly triple the $227,576 at publication, with $177,638 traded on the final day alone.
98.5¢ → $1.00
The +25 bp book settled exactly where the final pre-meeting board pointed; the ~1.9¢ tail against an exactly-25 bp move did not happen. The displayed price had been sentiment — the statement was the resolution.
The dissent went the other way
The one dissenting vote was for a larger 0.5 percentage-point rise to 4.25%, not a hold — a hawkish split, unlike the 6–3 holds of July and September whose dissents also favored +25 bp.
First hike since 2023
BBC, The Guardian, and Morningstar all frame the move as the first increase in more than three years; Reuters adds the Bank “warns another move likely”, and ING’s desk called it hawkish.
~5% CPI projected
The November MPR projects CPI to rise to around 5% by the middle of 2027 on the Middle East energy shock before falling back — the forecast published alongside the vote.
December 17 already trades
The next MPC decision is Thursday, December 17, 2026, and Polymarket’s December event is live: no-change 53.5¢ against +25 bp 38.0¢ ($50,118 traded, $16,742 liquidity) at the November 5 check.
Decision day in headlines (headlines only, no figures paraphrased):
- BBC (Nov 5): “Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%, the first increase in more than three years.”
- The Guardian (Nov 5): “Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%, the first increase for more than three years.”
- Reuters (Nov 5): “Bank of England raises rates for first time since 2023, warns another move likely.”
- Morningstar (Nov 5): “Bank of England Raises Interest Rates to 4% in First Hike Since 2023”; ING’s desk (Nov 5): “Hawkish Bank of England hikes rates, and there’s more to come.”
Publication snapshot — September 25, 2026 14:14 UTC (kept for record)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $7,537 | $28,401 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $12,766 | $30,961 |
| No change | 18¢ | 17¢ / 19¢ | $75,047 | $38,150 |
| 25 bps increase | 80.5¢ | 80¢ / 81¢ | $95,630 | $23,037 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.9¢ | 0.5¢ / 1.3¢ | $36,595 | $23,533 |
$227,576
Cumulative event volume at the snapshot — already past the roughly $204,000 the September event showed three weeks out, with six weeks still to run.
$145,531
Event liquidity, concentrated in the no-change and hike books — enough depth that quoted prices are meaningful rather than a single stale order.
$18,660
24-hour volume at the snapshot; September's event more than doubled its volume in the final three days before its announcement.
Bank of England November market resolution: seven rules that matter
1. Bank Rate is the unit
The event measures the change in the Bank of England's Bank Rate produced by the November 2026 MPC meeting — not SONIA, not mortgage rates, not any other policy instrument.
2. Compare immediately before and after
Resolution uses the change relative to the level immediately before this meeting. Today's 3.75% is the current baseline, not a fixed settlement input.
3. Official source resolves
Official Bank of England information — including the statement or release from the November meeting — is the named resolution source, and the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued.
4. The upper bound counts if a range applies
If the specified rate is expressed as an upper and lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. Bank Rate is a single rate, so this clause is dormant but written.
5. Odd-sized moves round
Changes under 25 bp count as 25 bp; changes over 25 bp round to the nearest 25, ties away from zero. A 10 bp hike is a +25 outcome; a 37.5 bp hike is +50.
6. Postponement and cancellation fallbacks are dated
A postponement before the December 17 meeting resolves on the postponed meeting's outcome; a cancellation, or a postponement past December 17, resolves to No Change.
7. Emergency actions sit outside
Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified November meeting are not considered — an inter-meeting move does not settle this market by itself.
These seven rules are why a meeting-specific guide beats a generic odds table: two Bank Rate markets can settle differently on the same announcement if their meeting windows, fallbacks, or rounding clauses differ. The September hub shows the same architecture settling cleanly on a hold.
Why the board favored a hike after two 6–3 holds
The same three dissents, twice
July and September each produced a 6–3 hold with three members voting +25 bp to 4%. A dissent pattern that repeats is the market's cleanest public signal of where a committee is drifting.
Inflation is rising, not fading
CPI reached 3.1% in August and 3.5% in September — the highest since October 2025 — exactly the direction the September summary flagged as “likely to rise further over coming quarters” with risks “tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report”.
The energy shock persists
The summary attributes the pressure to the protracted Middle East conflict lifting crude and refined energy prices, which remain “more volatile and higher than pre-conflict”.
“Stands ready to act”
The September statement's closing guidance says the Committee “stands ready to act as necessary” to keep CPI on track for the 2% target — language the market reads as an open door for November.
Everyone else already hiked
The ECB (September 10), the Fed (September 16, 12–0), and the Bank of Japan (September 18) all tightened in September. The Bank of England's hold is the exception, and November 5 is its next scheduled opportunity.
Forecasts land with the decision
November 5 is a Monetary Policy Report round — new projections accompany the decision, which historically is when the Committee either moves or explains firmly why it will not.
Why search demand peaks on decision day — and after
The “next decision” wave
Every settled decision hub keeps collecting “when is the next Bank of England decision” searches; the September record now routes that intent here through its answer and timeline.
The CPI wave landed
The September print arrived October 21 at CPI 3.5% and the schedule held. The decision-week wave peaked on November 5 itself, and this page carried it through to the decision-day record.
The forecast-round wave
MPR meetings add “Bank of England forecast November 2026”-style demand that a plain rate-date page does not answer; this hub carries both the date and the forecast context.
Decision day
“Bank of England November 2026 decision” and “Bank of England interest rate” searches concentrate on November 5 itself — this page now answers with the vote, the settlement board, and the official record.
Research workflow for the November Bank of England decision
Start with the official calendar
The Bank's upcoming-MPC-dates page is the resolution-linked schedule: November 5 with the MPR, December 17 next. Verify it before trusting any secondary date.
Confirm the baseline
Check the official Bank Rate page, not a screenshot or an article: the level before the meeting is what the contracts measure against.
Read all five questions
Each bucket is its own market with its own book. A summary headline like “80% chance of a hike” hides four other prices and their spreads.
Measure the books
Record bid, ask, depth, volume, and a UTC timestamp together. A lone last-trade price is the weakest possible evidence.
Compare institutions carefully
The Fed decides October 27–28, the Bank of Japan October 29–30, the Bank of England November 5 — same month, different instruments, calendars, and rules. Fed odds and the BoJ October hub cover their own events.
Separate context from settlement
Dissents, CPI, and the MPR are context. Settlement runs on the announced change in Bank Rate and the written fallbacks — nothing else.
Investigate sudden moves
A bucket that jumps on no news is worth checking against data releases and order-book depth before treating it as information.
Keep probability claims bounded
Prices are crowd sentiment at a timestamp. This page never presents them as the official outcome, and neither should you.
Frequently asked questions
What did the Bank of England decide in November 2026?
The Committee voted 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 3.75% to 4.00% — the first increase in more than three years — with one member preferring a 0.5 percentage-point rise to 4.25%. The announcement, minutes, and November Monetary Policy Report were published at midday London time on Thursday, November 5, 2026. The report projects CPI inflation to rise to around 5% by the middle of 2027 before falling back.
When is the Bank of England November 2026 decision?
Thursday, November 5, 2026. The Monetary Policy Committee's announcement, the November MPC Summary and minutes, and the November Monetary Policy Report are published together at midday London time. The next scheduled decision after that is Thursday, December 17, 2026.
What is Bank Rate now?
4.00%. The Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00% on November 5, 2026, by an 8–1 majority — the first increase in more than three years — with one member voting for 4.25%. Before this meeting the rate had been 3.75%, held at both the July 30 and September 17 meetings by 6–3 majorities.
How did the November 2026 BoE market settle?
With the decision: the +25 bp increase book settled at Yes $1.00 on the event's heaviest book ($227,902 traded), and the no-change, −25 bp, −50+ bp, and +50+ bp books all settled No ($156,907, $116,063, $95,679, and $69,747 traded respectively). The event closed at $666,298 cumulative volume with $177,638 on the final day (November 5, 15:10 UTC check). Before the meeting the board had climbed from 80.5¢ at publication to 98.5¢ two days out. Settlement is a record of the contract's outcome, not of the vote.
What did the Bank of England decide in September 2026?
The Committee voted 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, the three dissenting members preferring a 25-basis-point increase to 4% — the same split as July. The September summary also records a unanimous vote to wind the stock of UK government bond purchases down to zero at an annual average pace of £46 billion by the end of 2034, and notes UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August.
Which interest rate change resolves the November market?
The event resolves on the change in basis points of Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 MPC meeting, relative to the level immediately before that meeting. The named resolution source is official Bank of England information, including the statement or release from the November meeting scheduled for November 5, 2026; the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued.
How are odd-sized Bank Rate changes classified?
Under the event's written rules, changes smaller than 25 basis points are treated as 25-basis-point moves, and changes larger than 25 basis points are rounded to the nearest 25, with an exact tie rounded away from zero — so a 10 bp increase would count as 25 bps, and a 37.5 bp increase as 50 bps.
What happens if the November meeting is postponed or cancelled?
If the meeting is postponed to a date before the next scheduled meeting (December 17, 2026), the market resolves on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If it is cancelled, or postponed so far that no decision is announced by the start of the December meeting, the market resolves to the “No Change” bucket. Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified meeting are not considered.
When will this Bank of England November 2026 guide be refreshed?
This guide's November 5, 2026 decision-day record — the vote, the settlement board, and the official statement — is live. The hub now stands as the settled November record; the next MPC meeting is December 17, 2026, and Polymarket's December event already trades. A further update would follow a settlement dispute, an official correction, or a market rule change.
Why did hike odds rise before the September CPI release?
Because the repricing did not wait for new inflation data. Between the September 25 publication snapshot (80.5¢) and the October 17 snapshot (94.0¢), the ONS had published no new CPI bulletin — the September edition is scheduled for October 21. The move tracks the persistent Middle East energy shock, a second consecutive 6–3 hold with three +25 bp dissents, and a September in which the ECB, Fed, and Bank of Japan all tightened. Those are the market's contextual inputs; only the official November 5 statement resolves the market.
What did the September 2026 CPI print show?
CPI rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% in August and the highest CPI rate since October 2025. CPIH rose to 3.6% from 3.3%, core CPI to 2.8% from 2.6%, and the CPI services rate to 3.7% from 3.4%. Transport — particularly motor fuels — made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change, with restaurants and hotels the largest partially offsetting downward contribution. By the November 3 snapshot, Polymarket's +25 bp bucket stood at 98.5¢ with the no-change book at 1.1¢–1.8¢.
Was the pre-meeting 98.5¢ price vindicated?
Yes — the +25 bp bucket settled at Yes $1.00 after the 8–1 vote for exactly that move. The books against an exactly-25 bp hike summed to about 1.9¢ two days out — roughly a 1-in-53 displayed path — and that tail did not happen. One vindicated price is not a rule: Reuters' decision-day headline reports the Bank “warns another move likely”, and displayed prices remain crowd sentiment until an official statement resolves them.
More live odds on this topic
- Fed rate odds for every open FOMC meeting — the US counterpart calendar, with implied basis points and Kalshi side by side.
- Fed October 2026 settled record — the Committee held 3.75–4.00% on October 28; the no-change book settled at $1.00.
- Bank of Japan October 2026 settled record — held ~1.25% on October 30; the no-change book settled at $1.00.
- Fed December 2026 decision hub — the next FOMC meeting after October's hold, December 8–9.
- Bank of England September 2026 settled record — the 6–3 hold, the settlement table, and the rules in action.
Sources and methodology
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2026 and 2027 — fetched September 25 and re-verified October 17, 2026 (November 5 with MPR; December 17; current rate 3.75%, next due November 5).
- Bank of England, September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes — fetched September 25 and re-verified October 17, 2026 (6–3 hold, three +25 bp dissents, CPI 3.1%, QT wind-down to zero, energy-shock language, “Next due: 5 November 2026”).
- Bank of England, November 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes — fetched November 5, 2026 (8–1 vote to increase Bank Rate to 4%, one +0.5 pp dissent to 4.25%, MPR CPI projection around 5% by mid-2027, “not on a pre-set path”).
- Polymarket, Gamma API event record and public event page — five buckets, volumes, prices, and full resolution wording, fetched 2026-09-25 14:14:09 UTC (publication snapshot) and re-fetched at the 2026-10-17 14:10 UTC, 2026-10-22 14:01 UTC, and 2026-11-03 15:13 UTC refresh snapshots, and at the 2026-11-05 15:10 UTC settlement check (event closed).
- Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026 — CPI 3.1% on the year (CPIH 3.3%), and the bulletin's next-release line scheduling the September 2026 edition for October 21, 2026; fetched October 17, 2026.
- Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 — CPI 3.5% on the year (up from 3.1%), CPIH 3.6%, core CPI 2.8%, transport and motor fuels the largest upward monthly contributor; fetched October 22, 2026.
- Internal: the settled September hub for the prior-meeting record and settlement history.
- Google News RSS, final-week coverage query — Reuters, Yahoo Finance UK, The Independent, The Guardian, and Goldman Sachs research via The Economic Times / Global Banking & Finance Review (November 1–2, 2026), headlines only.
- Google News RSS, decision-day coverage query — BBC, The Guardian, Reuters, Morningstar, Euronews, and ING desk commentary (November 5, 2026), headlines only; City AM’s “unanimous vote” headline corrected against the official record.
Methodology: every market figure on this page is a timestamped read from the public Gamma API at the moment above, bounded and re-verified at build time; every official fact was re-fetched from bankofengland.co.uk on publication day and from bankofengland.co.uk and ons.gov.uk at the October 17, October 22, November 3, and November 5, 2026 refreshes — the November decision was verified against the official Monetary Policy Summary fetched decision day. Final-week and decision-day headlines were read via Google News RSS on November 3 and November 5 and are cited as headlines only. Nothing here is live, and nothing here is financial advice. The November event is settled; this page now stands as the archival decision-day record, to be reviewed on a settlement dispute, an official correction, or a rule change.