Bank of England November 2026 Decision: A 25 bp Hike to 4% Is Favored
The official November 5 calendar, the verified five-outcome Polymarket board, the resolution rules that govern settlement, and the September record that explains why a hike is priced.
Published 2026-09-25 · Snapshot 2026-09-25 14:14:09 UTC · Next scheduled check: ~October 15, 2026 (after the September CPI print) · Final pre-meeting refresh: late October · Decision: November 5, 2026
The answer first
The Bank of England's next Bank Rate decision is due Thursday, November 5, 2026, announced at midday London time together with the November Monetary Policy Report — one of the Committee's four forecast rounds a year. Bank Rate stands at 3.75%, held there at both of the two most recent meetings, most recently by a 6–3 September vote in which three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Polymarket's five-outcome market for the meeting prices that 25 bp hike to 4.00% at 80.5¢ against 18¢ for another hold as of the 2026-09-25 14:14:09 UTC snapshot below, with cumulative event volume at $227,576 and $145,531 of liquidity — the crowd reads September's dissent pattern, rising UK inflation, and a September in which the ECB, Fed, and Bank of Japan all hiked as pointing to a November move. The market settles on the change in Bank Rate that the November meeting produces relative to its level immediately before, using official Bank of England information, and it can resolve as soon as the midday statement lands. A price is crowd sentiment, not the official outcome.
Where the November meeting sits in the 2026 calendar
The 3.75% baseline is official
The Bank's rate page shows Bank Rate at 3.75% with “Next due: 5 November 2026”, verified September 25, 2026. The reviewed contracts measure the change this meeting produces against exactly that kind of pre-meeting level.
September has decided
The September 17 announcement was a 6–3 hold at 3.75% — three members again preferring +25 bp to 4% — plus a unanimous vote to wind gilt purchases down to zero. The September decision hub holds the full settled record.
A Monetary Policy Report lands with November
November 5 is an MPR round: new quarterly forecasts are published with the decision, the first since the September summary judged inflation risks “tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Report”.
One decision, five buckets
The exact Polymarket event splits the outcome into −50+ bp, −25 bp, no change, +25 bp, and +50+ bp — five independent yes/no order books, not one ranked list.
Official Bank of England November 2026 timeline
The July Monetary Policy Summary records a 6–3 vote to maintain Bank Rate, with three members preferring an increase to 4%.
The MPC holds at 3.75% with the same three +25 bp dissents, votes unanimously to reduce the stock of gilt purchases to zero (£46bn average annual pace by end-2034), and notes CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August on the Middle East energy shock, likely to rise further. Polymarket's September event settles to no change at $483,869 volume.
The ECB raised rates 25 bp on September 10, the Fed followed with a 25 bp hike on September 16, the Bank of Japan hiked to around 1.25% on September 18 — leaving the Bank of England the only major central bank that did not tighten in September.
The official calendar still names November 5 (with December 17 next), the rate page still shows 3.75%, and the verified November event is open with $227,576 cumulative volume, the +25 bp bucket at 80.5¢ the largest book.
Labour-market and activity releases land ahead of the meeting. They can move expectations and order books, but none of them substitutes for the official November 5 announcement as resolution evidence.
The last consumer-inflation reading before the meeting arrives from the ONS. August CPI was 3.1% and the September summary said inflation is “likely to rise further over coming quarters”; this print is the final big data point for both the Committee and the market.
The announcement, summary, minutes, and new forecasts are published at midday London time. The reviewed market may resolve as soon as the statement is issued; the postponement and cancellation fallbacks below apply only if the meeting itself moves.
The Bank's calendar lists Thursday, December 17 as the final 2026 MPC date, so a postponed November meeting would have to conclude before it to still count for this market.
What the verified November Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Bank of England decision in November? (event ID 778706, trading since July 31, 2026, scheduled to end November 5, 2026 at 23:59 UTC). It resolves on the change in Bank Rate produced by the November 2026 MPC meeting relative to its prior level, with official Bank of England information as the named source. The five buckets:
50+ bps decrease
A Bank Rate decrease classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the written rounding rules.
25 bps decrease
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
No change
No qualifying change from the specified meeting — also the fallback bucket if the meeting is cancelled or postponed past the next scheduled meeting.
25 bps increase
A qualifying increase classified as 25 basis points — the bucket the board currently favors, which would take Bank Rate to 4.00%.
50+ bps increase
An increase classified in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after rounding.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book, so displayed YES prices need not sum to exactly 100¢.
September 25 snapshot (2026-09-25 14:14:09 UTC Gamma check)
| Bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $7,537 | $28,401 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $12,766 | $30,961 |
| No change | 18¢ | 17¢ / 19¢ | $75,047 | $38,150 |
| 25 bps increase | 80.5¢ | 80¢ / 81¢ | $95,630 | $23,037 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.9¢ | 0.5¢ / 1.3¢ | $36,595 | $23,533 |
$227,576
Cumulative event volume at the snapshot — already past the roughly $204,000 the September event showed three weeks out, with six weeks still to run.
$145,531
Event liquidity, concentrated in the no-change and hike books — enough depth that quoted prices are meaningful rather than a single stale order.
$18,660
24-hour volume at the snapshot; September's event more than doubled its volume in the final three days before its announcement.
Bank of England November market resolution: seven rules that matter
1. Bank Rate is the unit
The event measures the change in the Bank of England's Bank Rate produced by the November 2026 MPC meeting — not SONIA, not mortgage rates, not any other policy instrument.
2. Compare immediately before and after
Resolution uses the change relative to the level immediately before this meeting. Today's 3.75% is the current baseline, not a fixed settlement input.
3. Official source resolves
Official Bank of England information — including the statement or release from the November meeting — is the named resolution source, and the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued.
4. The upper bound counts if a range applies
If the specified rate is expressed as an upper and lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. Bank Rate is a single rate, so this clause is dormant but written.
5. Odd-sized moves round
Changes under 25 bp count as 25 bp; changes over 25 bp round to the nearest 25, ties away from zero. A 10 bp hike is a +25 outcome; a 37.5 bp hike is +50.
6. Postponement and cancellation fallbacks are dated
A postponement before the December 17 meeting resolves on the postponed meeting's outcome; a cancellation, or a postponement past December 17, resolves to No Change.
7. Emergency actions sit outside
Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified November meeting are not considered — an inter-meeting move does not settle this market by itself.
These seven rules are why a meeting-specific guide beats a generic odds table: two Bank Rate markets can settle differently on the same announcement if their meeting windows, fallbacks, or rounding clauses differ. The September hub shows the same architecture settling cleanly on a hold.
Why the board favors a hike after two 6–3 holds
The same three dissents, twice
July and September each produced a 6–3 hold with three members voting +25 bp to 4%. A dissent pattern that repeats is the market's cleanest public signal of where a committee is drifting.
Inflation is rising, not fading
CPI reached 3.1% in August, and the September summary says it is “likely to rise further over coming quarters” with risks “tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report”.
The energy shock persists
The summary attributes the pressure to the protracted Middle East conflict lifting crude and refined energy prices, which remain “more volatile and higher than pre-conflict”.
“Stands ready to act”
The September statement's closing guidance says the Committee “stands ready to act as necessary” to keep CPI on track for the 2% target — language the market reads as an open door for November.
Everyone else already hiked
The ECB (September 10), the Fed (September 16, 12–0), and the Bank of Japan (September 18) all tightened in September. The Bank of England's hold is the exception, and November 5 is its next scheduled opportunity.
Forecasts land with the decision
November 5 is a Monetary Policy Report round — new projections accompany the decision, which historically is when the Committee either moves or explains firmly why it will not.
Why search demand should rise before November 5
The “next decision” wave
Every settled decision hub keeps collecting “when is the next Bank of England decision” searches; the September record now routes that intent here through its answer and timeline.
The mid-October CPI wave
The September CPI print is the last before the meeting. Inflation releases reliably spike “Bank of England rate” queries, and a hot print would push the hike board further into focus.
The forecast-round wave
MPR meetings add “Bank of England forecast November 2026”-style demand that a plain rate-date page does not answer; this hub carries both the date and the forecast context.
Decision week
“Bank of England November 2026 decision” searches concentrate in the days around November 5, when this page will already be indexed and refreshed with the final pre-meeting board.
Research workflow for the November Bank of England decision
Start with the official calendar
The Bank's upcoming-MPC-dates page is the resolution-linked schedule: November 5 with the MPR, December 17 next. Verify it before trusting any secondary date.
Confirm the baseline
Check the official Bank Rate page, not a screenshot or an article: the level before the meeting is what the contracts measure against.
Read all five questions
Each bucket is its own market with its own book. A summary headline like “80% chance of a hike” hides four other prices and their spreads.
Measure the books
Record bid, ask, depth, volume, and a UTC timestamp together. A lone last-trade price is the weakest possible evidence.
Compare institutions carefully
The Fed decides October 27–28, the Bank of Japan October 29–30, the Bank of England November 5 — same month, different instruments, calendars, and rules. Fed odds and the BoJ October hub cover their own events.
Separate context from settlement
Dissents, CPI, and the MPR are context. Settlement runs on the announced change in Bank Rate and the written fallbacks — nothing else.
Investigate sudden moves
A bucket that jumps on no news is worth checking against data releases and order-book depth before treating it as information.
Keep probability claims bounded
Prices are crowd sentiment at a timestamp. This page never presents them as the official outcome, and neither should you.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Bank of England November 2026 decision?
Thursday, November 5, 2026. The Monetary Policy Committee's announcement, the November MPC Summary and minutes, and the November Monetary Policy Report are published together at midday London time. The next scheduled decision after that is Thursday, December 17, 2026.
What is Bank Rate right now?
3.75%. The Bank of England's official rate page showed 3.75% with “Next due: 5 November 2026” when verified on September 25, 2026. The rate was held at 3.75% at both of the two most recent meetings — July 30 and September 17, 2026 — each time by a 6–3 majority.
What do prediction markets price for the November 2026 BoE meeting?
As of the 2026-09-25 14:14:09 UTC snapshot, Polymarket's five-outcome event prices a 25-basis-point increase to 4.00% at 80.5¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 81¢), against 18¢ for no change, with roughly $227,576 in cumulative volume. Displayed prices are crowd sentiment at a timestamp — they are not the official outcome and can move immediately.
What did the Bank of England decide in September 2026?
The Committee voted 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, the three dissenting members preferring a 25-basis-point increase to 4% — the same split as July. The September summary also records a unanimous vote to wind the stock of UK government bond purchases down to zero at an annual average pace of £46 billion by the end of 2034, and notes UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August.
Which interest rate change resolves the November market?
The event resolves on the change in basis points of Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 MPC meeting, relative to the level immediately before that meeting. The named resolution source is official Bank of England information, including the statement or release from the November meeting scheduled for November 5, 2026; the market may resolve as soon as that statement is issued.
How are odd-sized Bank Rate changes classified?
Under the event's written rules, changes smaller than 25 basis points are treated as 25-basis-point moves, and changes larger than 25 basis points are rounded to the nearest 25, with an exact tie rounded away from zero — so a 10 bp increase would count as 25 bps, and a 37.5 bp increase as 50 bps.
What happens if the November meeting is postponed or cancelled?
If the meeting is postponed to a date before the next scheduled meeting (December 17, 2026), the market resolves on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If it is cancelled, or postponed so far that no decision is announced by the start of the December meeting, the market resolves to the “No Change” bucket. Emergency rate changes not resulting from the specified meeting are not considered.
When will this Bank of England November 2026 guide be refreshed?
A scheduled snapshot refresh is planned for mid-October 2026, after the September CPI print — the last inflation reading before the meeting — with a final pre-meeting refresh in late October and a decision-day update on November 5, 2026. An earlier review would follow an official calendar change, a market rule change, or a major reprice.
More live odds on this topic
- Fed rate odds for every open FOMC meeting — the US counterpart calendar, with implied basis points and Kalshi side by side.
- Fed October 2026 decision hub — October 27–28, markets favor another 25 bp hike.
- Bank of Japan October 2026 decision hub — October 29–30, pause favored after the September hike.
- Bank of England September 2026 settled record — the 6–3 hold, the settlement table, and the rules in action.
Sources and methodology
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2026 and 2027 — fetched September 25, 2026 (November 5 with MPR; December 17; current rate 3.75%, next due November 5).
- Bank of England, September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes — fetched September 25, 2026 (6–3 hold, three +25 bp dissents, CPI 3.1%, QT wind-down to zero).
- Polymarket, Gamma API event record and public event page — five buckets, volumes, prices, and full resolution wording, fetched 2026-09-25 14:14:09 UTC.
- Internal: the settled September hub for the prior-meeting record and settlement history.
Methodology: every market figure on this page is a timestamped read from the public Gamma API at the moment above, bounded and re-verified at build time; every official fact was re-fetched from bankofengland.co.uk on publication day. Nothing here is live, and nothing here is financial advice. Scheduled refreshes: mid-October (post-CPI), late October (final pre-meeting), November 5 (decision day).