October 2026 Fed Decision: Markets Favor Another 25 bp Hike
The official October 27–28 dates, the post-September 3.75%–4.00% target range, the verified five-outcome Polymarket event with another 25 bp hike priced as the favorite, settlement rules, and the evidence calendar leading to the October 28 announcement.
Published August 15, 2026 · Updated September 23, 2026 (post-September rebase) · Decision: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Next planned refresh: October 12, 2026
The answer first
The Federal Reserve's October 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday–Wednesday, October 27–28, 2026, with the rate decision and statement due on Wednesday, October 28. The official 2026 calendar lists no Summary of Economic Projections for this meeting — projections belong to the September and December sessions. The target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00% after the September 16, 2026 statement passed a 25-basis-point increase by a 12–0 vote, so the October contracts measure from that new baseline. At the September 23, 14:02 UTC check, the exact Polymarket event Fed Decision in October? remained active and open with five rate-change buckets, about $10,521,089 in cumulative volume, $703,533 in 24-hour volume, and $1,896,320 in liquidity — and its board had flipped since the decision: another 25-basis-point increase traded at 60.5¢ against 37.5¢ for no change. The outcome is unknown. This guide separates the fixed calendar from the changing policy baseline, market prices, and the written rules that control resolution.
October 2026 Fed meeting: date, baseline and scope
Tuesday–Wednesday, October 27–28
The Federal Reserve's official 2026 FOMC calendar fixes the meeting dates. The statement and implementation note follow the decision, as with the July 29 release.
Current range: 3.75%–4.00%
The September 16, 2026 statement raised the target range by 25 basis points with a 12–0 vote. That is the confirmed post-September baseline the October contracts measure from, not a prediction for October.
No projections in October
The calendar's projection markers attach to March, June, September, and December. October is a regular decision meeting, so the statement is the headline release.
Five outcome markets
The verified event covers a decrease of 50+ basis points, a 25-point decrease, no change, a 25-point increase, and an increase of 50+ points in the target's upper bound.
Board flipped after September
At the September 23 snapshot the 25-basis-point increase bucket traded at 60.5¢ against 37.5¢ for no change — a hike is now the priced favorite, reversing the pre-decision board.
$10.5M cumulative volume
At 14:02 UTC on September 23 the active event showed about $10,521,089 cumulative volume, $703,533 in 24-hour volume, and $1,896,320 in liquidity across five open markets.
One October search can hide four different questions: when the committee meets, what the federal funds range is now, whether new projections appear, and how a prediction market classifies the decision. This page answers each separately so an official date is never mistaken for an outcome forecast, and a market's end time or last trade is never mistaken for the Fed's own calendar.
Official timeline to the October 2026 FOMC decision
The official statement passed 9–3, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan preferring a quarter-point increase. The statement said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, partly reflecting supply shocks including energy, and was released at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
The official calendar still listed October 27–28, the July statement fixed the 3.50%–3.75% baseline, and the exact five-contract event remained active and open with the snapshot figures recorded on this page.
The Committee raised the target range by 25 basis points with a 12–0 vote; the statement went out September 16 at 2:00 p.m. EDT, and the session carried the Summary of Economic Projections. The September Polymarket event settled its 25-basis-point increase bucket to Yes at $1.00 the same day. The September guide records the full decision and settlement.
One day after the decision the October event showed about $5,827,855 in cumulative volume with no change still ahead: 53.5¢ versus 46.5¢ for a second consecutive hike. Contextual inbound links from the settled September hub were added to this page.
The board flipped to favoring another hike: at 14:02 UTC the 25-basis-point increase traded at 60.5¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 61¢) against 37.5¢ for no change, with cumulative volume up about 80% since September 17 at $10,521,089. This page now records the new baseline, the repriced board, and the concrete evidence calendar.
The September employment situation lands October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET and September CPI on October 14, alongside other scheduled releases between the meetings. They can move expectations and order books, but none substitutes for the October statement as the reviewed market's resolution evidence.
The two-day session ends with the rate decision and statement on Wednesday, October 28. The reviewed rules measure the change in the target's upper bound caused by this specific meeting.
The December session carries the last 2026 projections and is the next checkpoint after October for rate-path questions.
What the verified October Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Fed Decision in October? At 14:02 UTC on September 23 — the rebase snapshot — its event-level data showed about $10,521,089 in cumulative volume, $703,533 in 24-hour volume, and $1,896,320 in liquidity, with all five component markets active, open, and not closed. The five questions and their YES prices at that single snapshot were:
50+ bps decrease — 0.25¢
A decrease classified into the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the event's written classification rules are applied. Bid 0.2¢ / ask 0.3¢; about $1,427,552 in market volume.
25 bps decrease — 0.55¢
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Bid 0.5¢ / ask 0.6¢; about $1,948,662 in market volume.
No change — 37.5¢
No qualifying change to the upper bound resulting from the specified October meeting. Bid 37¢ / ask 38¢; about $2,891,297 in market volume — the largest book on the board.
25 bps increase — 60.5¢
The priced favorite after the September 16 hike: this bucket pays for back-to-back increases. Bid 60¢ / ask 61¢; about $2,669,272 in market volume.
50+ bps increase — 0.85¢
A larger increase placed in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket. Bid 0.8¢ / ask 0.9¢; about $1,584,307 in market volume.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book. Prices are from one timestamped snapshot and change continuously; they may not sum to exactly 100% because spreads, depth, and independent orders differ.
The event is narrower than a generic question about Fed policy or where rates finish the year. It names one meeting, one policy rate definition — the upper bound of the target range — one before-and-after comparison, and official Federal Reserve information as the resolution source. The much larger annual event How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? (about $53.2 million cumulative volume at the September 23 check, with the no-cuts bucket near 96.5%) is a different contract family with a December 31 horizon; neither page treats it as October's settlement. That distinction is the main reason a dated meeting guide is useful: similar-looking Fed questions settle on different dates, baselines, and definitions.
Resolution rules that matter for the October contracts
1. The upper bound is the unit
The event defines the Fed's rate as the upper bound of the target federal funds range. A range change settles by its top number, preventing an ambiguous comparison.
2. Before versus after one meeting
Resolution uses the change produced by the October 27–28 meeting relative to the level immediately before it. The September decision sets that starting level; it does not resolve October.
3. FOMC decisions only
The written description ties decisions on the target range to FOMC meetings. Actions outside the specified meeting framework do not count toward a bucket.
4. Bucket classification governs
A move is placed into one of the five displayed categories. Reading the event's full rules before comparing headlines prevents classifying a move by intuition.
5. Official information controls
Official Federal Reserve releases are the named source. Commentators, futures pricing, and press reports can inform expectations but never substitute for the statement.
6. Save the wording, not a screenshot
A reproducible record includes the exact question, description, source links, active/closed status, and timestamp. One cached price proves nothing later.
What changed since the August 15 publication
The baseline reset. This guide launched against a 3.50%–3.75% range held on July 29 by a 9–3 vote. On September 16 the Committee raised the range to 3.75%–4.00% by a 12–0 vote, so the upper bound the October contracts measure moved from 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent.
The board repriced — twice. At publication, no change traded at 71.5¢ against 23.5¢ for a 25-basis-point increase. The day after the September decision the split was 53.5¢ versus 46.5¢, still favoring a hold. By the September 23 snapshot the order had reversed: 60.5¢ for another 25-basis-point increase versus 37.5¢ for no change, with both cut buckets near zero. Prices moved with the decision and the data flow — the written rules did not move at all.
Attention and liquidity built. Cumulative event volume grew from about $640,034 on August 15 to about $5,827,855 on September 17 and about $10,521,089 on September 23, when the event also showed about $703,533 in 24-hour volume and $1,896,320 in liquidity. The annual no-cuts-in-2026 context market firmed to about 96.5¢ at roughly $53.2 million in cumulative volume.
What did not change: the official calendar still fixes October 27–28 with no projections, the five buckets and their resolution rules are unchanged, and official Federal Reserve releases remain the only settlement source.
Why search demand should rise before October 28
This durable page was published 73 days ahead and rebased 35 days out so crawlers hold one canonical, current URL before the October intent wave peaks. The forecast is tied to demonstrated demand, not a news spike: the site's macro cluster earned more than 110,000 Google Search impressions in the latest 28-day window — the jobs-report hub alone drew about 80,975 at an average position near 8.7 and the CPI hub about 28,761 — while the settled September Fed guide drew about 868 live pageviews in Cloudflare's real-user analytics for September 16–23, and the annual Fed rate-path event now holds about $53.2 million in cumulative volume with the October-specific event above $10.5 million.
Post-September handoff wave
The September 16 decision has landed, so “next Fed meeting” and rate-path searches now resolve to October 27–28. This rebased page owns that dated intent, with the final pre-meeting refresh scheduled for October 12 — after the October 2 jobs report and the October 14 CPI release.
Hike-versus-hold question wave
A unanimous September 16 hike and an October 25-basis-point bucket that climbed from 23.5¢ at publication to 60.5¢ at the September 23 snapshot give the meeting a live two-sided question that attracts “will the Fed hike in October” searches as the data arrives.
Decision-week wave
Intent becomes most specific in the final days: exact time, statement language, market status, and settlement evidence. The same canonical page can carry the confirmed outcome after October 28.
Research workflow for the October 2026 Fed decision
Start with the official calendar
Verify October 27–28 on the Federal Reserve's FOMC page. Do not infer the date from a market end time or a third-party calendar.
Confirm the baseline from the September statement
The September 16, 2026 decision raised the range to 3.75%–4.00%. That official level, not a forecast, is what the October contracts measure from.
Read all five questions
Confirm each outcome's meeting boundary, rate definition, bucket rules, and fallback language before comparing prices across buckets.
Measure the order books
Use the prediction-market odds guide to record spread and depth rather than treating the last trade as an exact probability.
Compare institutions carefully
The September Fed, September ECB, Bank of England, September Bank of Japan, the October Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada guides cover different dates, rates, committees, and rule sets. One decision does not mechanically imply another.
Map the data calendar
The U.S. CPI calendar and jobs report calendar track the scheduled releases between meetings; they are context, not the October market's resolution source.
Investigate sudden moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can flag a repricing contract for review without saying whether it reflects evidence or thin liquidity.
Keep probability claims bounded
The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why a quoted probability is evidence to assess, not certainty. No rate bucket or return is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Fed's October 2026 meeting?
The Federal Reserve's October 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27–28, 2026, on the Federal Reserve's official 2026 meeting calendar. The rate decision and statement are due on the second day, October 28.
What is the current federal funds target range before the October 2026 Fed meeting?
The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% with a 12–0 vote. Checked September 23, 2026, that is the range in force immediately before the October meeting unless an intervening official action changes it.
What did the Fed decide at its September 2026 meeting?
The Committee raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, by a 12–0 vote. The September Polymarket event settled its 25-basis-point increase bucket to Yes at $1.00 the same day; the September guide records the full decision and settlement.
Is there an active Polymarket event for the October 2026 Fed decision?
Yes. The exact Polymarket event checked September 23, 2026 at 14:02 UTC was active and open with five outcome contracts, about $10,521,089 in cumulative volume, $703,533 in 24-hour volume, and $1,896,320 in liquidity. All five markets were active, not closed, and the event runs to the October 28 decision.
How does the October 2026 Fed decision market resolve?
The reviewed event defines the Fed's rate as the upper bound of the target federal funds range and resolves to the number of basis points that upper bound changes versus its level immediately before the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Decisions are made by FOMC meetings, and official Federal Reserve information is the resolution source.
Does the October 2026 FOMC meeting include economic projections?
No. On the official 2026 calendar, the projection markers attach to the March, June, September, and December meetings. October 27–28 is a regular two-day meeting with a statement, not a Summary of Economic Projections release.
Why are traders discussing a rate hike for October 2026?
After the September 16 unanimous hike to 3.75%–4.00%, the September 23 snapshot prices another 25-basis-point increase at about 60.5 cents against 37.5 cents for no change, with both cut buckets near zero. July's three hike dissents, the September decision, and the statement's elevated-inflation language frame that pricing. Market prices are expectations, not a forecast or a promise.
When will this October 2026 Fed meeting guide be refreshed?
The next planned review is October 12, 2026, after the October 2 jobs report and the October 14 CPI release and two weeks before the decision. The page will be refreshed sooner if the official calendar, the target range, market status, or written resolution rules change materially.
More live odds on this topic
📈 Every live Polymarket market on the topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
Sources and methodology
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars — official September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9, 2026 dates and the projection markers that exclude October. Checked August 15, 2026; rechecked September 23, 2026.
- Federal Reserve: July 29, 2026 FOMC statement — official 9–3 vote maintaining the 3.50%–3.75% target range, the three dissents preferring a quarter-point increase, and the elevated-inflation language. Checked August 15, 2026.
- Federal Reserve: September 16, 2026 FOMC statement — official 12–0 vote raising the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%; the post-September baseline the October contracts measure from. Checked September 23, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: Fed Decision in October? — exact event status, five open markets, event volume, liquidity, and 24-hour volume. Checked September 23, 2026 at 14:02 UTC (publication snapshot August 15, 2026 at 14:10:58 UTC).
- Public Polymarket event — live surface for current order books and the full contract text.
- Polymarket Gamma: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — the separate annual rate-path event used only as context, with the no-cuts bucket near 96.5¢. Checked September 23, 2026 (previously August 15, 2026).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2026 release schedule — the October 2, 2026 employment situation (8:30 a.m. ET) and the October 14, 2026 September CPI release in the evidence window. Checked September 23, 2026 against this site's jobs-report and CPI calendar hubs.
The August 15 publication run reviewed the complete 99-entry blog index and archive, all 19 existing event hubs, the 127-URL sitemap, proactive state and planned refreshes, current-day publisher output, and the latest local GSC snapshot and watchlist. Exact and semantic scans found no page targeting the October 2026 Fed meeting, its dates, or its five outcome contracts: the September hub owns the nearer meeting, and the June hub is a completed-event archive. The new URL fills a distinct dated intent, and three contextual inbound links were added from the September Fed guide, the Fed rate-analysis article, and the CPI calendar hub. The September 23 rebase re-verified the official FOMC calendar and both Gamma events live, rechecked the archive and hub inventory for overlap, confirmed no other page targets the October 27–28 decision intent, and updated those inbound links' context to the settled September record.