Home › Polymarket odds

Polymarket Odds Today

Updated September 23, 2026 · 200 markets · refreshed twice a day

Live-market snapshots for the most-traded long-running Polymarket events, grouped by category. Each page shows every outcome's probability, 24-hour change, volume, a 30-day chart and how the market resolves. Big scheduled events link to our full event guides.

Most traded right now

Browse odds by topic

Politics & Elections: Trump (110) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (296) · Senate Races (128) · Governor Races (88) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · World Elections (168) · Brazil (100) · France (36) · Germany (22) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (99)

Geopolitics & World: Iran (117) · Strait of Hormuz (31) · Israel (103) · Middle East (108) · Russia–Ukraine War (129) · China & Taiwan (82) · Venezuela (24)

Economy & Fed: Fed & Interest Rates (41) · Inflation & CPI (31) · US Economy (135) · Stocks & Earnings (109) · Oil & Commodities (56) · IPOs (91)

Crypto: Bitcoin (82) · Ethereum (91) · Solana (94) · XRP (97) · Crypto Prices (146) · Token Launches & FDV (163) · Crypto Regulation (22)

Sports: NFL (88) · NBA (33) · MLB (43) · NHL (5) · College Football (30) · Soccer (22) · Premier League (17) · Champions League (16) · Golf (7) · Formula 1 (8) · UFC (30) · Esports (73)

Tech & AI: AI (165) · OpenAI (68) · Anthropic (55) · Big Tech (171) · Elon Musk (69) · Science & Space (113)

Culture & Entertainment: Movies & Box Office (59) · Music (87) · Awards (91) · Celebrities & Creators (79)

Other markets: Weather (123)

Politics & Elections

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
🗓 Fed Decision in October?full event guide$1.02M
🗓 Brazil Presidential Electionfull event guide$520.9K
🗓 Balance of Power: 2026 Midtermsfull event guide$130.8K
🗓 Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026full event guide$353.0K
🗓 California Governor Election Winnerfull event guide$15.3K
🗓 Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?full event guide$76
Will the US confirm that aliens exist?By December 31 3.2%$856.6K
US announces end of Iranian blockade?By December 31 61.8%$546.1K
Presidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance 20.6%$390.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 20.5%$324.3K
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionNithya Raman 57.6%$320.1K
Will Xi Jinping visit US?By December 31 99.9%+$320.0K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18.2%$297.5K
US-Iran ceasefire continues?Through September 25 97.4%$265.0K
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot 52.8%$249.5K
Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen 38.4%$188.1K
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts?By October 31 77.2%$170.7K
Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?200-219 23.5%$165.1K
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance 51.2%$138.5K
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?China 68%$126.8K
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes 6.2%$120.8K
Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola 74.5%$116.6K
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro 59.2%$115.6K
NATO x Russia military clash?By December 31 31.5%$109.1K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 14.5%$108.0K
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 80%$106.4K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed?By December 31 17.5%$104.0K
Michigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D) 71.5%$91.8K
Trump out as President by September 30?Yes 0.2%$73.1K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement?By December 31, 2027 72.5%$70.0K
Florida Governor Election WinnerByron Donalds (R) 74.5%$62.0K
Putin out as President of Russia?By June 30, 2027 11.5%$60.9K
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceFlávio Bolsonaro 71%$56.9K
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?By December 31, 2026 12.5%$55.1K
Texas Governor Election WinnerGreg Abbott (R) 72.5%$46.4K
Next Prime Minister of SwedenMagdalena Andersson 87.5%$43.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes 0.7%$40.7K
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 1.9%$39.5K
Iran leadership change?By June 30, 2027 25.5%$36.9K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 4.0%$36.5K
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Sorin Grindeanu 41.3%$36.3K
Maduro Prison Time?No prison time 54.5%$34.4K
Texas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D) 61.5%$32.9K
Bulgaria Presidential ElectionIliana Iotova 70.5%$32.7K
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 17.5%$32.4K
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase 70.5%$31.5K
North Carolina Senate Election WinnerRoy Cooper (D) 94.5%$30.3K
Maine Senate Election WinnerTroy Jackson (D) 73.5%$26.4K
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?No meeting before 2027 93%$26.3K
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Abiy Ahmed 97.5%$26.3K
Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?840-879 30.5%$25.5K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes 8.0%$25.5K
Taipei Mayor Election WinnerChiang Wan-an 85.5%$23.7K
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?By October 31 33.5%$23.2K
Lima Mayoral Election WinnerRafael López Aliaga 73%$23.0K
Will Russia invade a NATO country?By December 31, 2026 5.5%$21.6K
Next leader out of power before 2027?Netanyahu - Israel PM 35.5%$21.3K
Iowa Senate Election WinnerAshley Hinson (R) 51.5%$21.1K
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceRenan Santos 44%$19.6K
Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerLula 69.5%$19.0K
Ohio Senate Election WinnerSherrod Brown (D) 62.5%$18.6K
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 7.5%$17.7K
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerDarline Graham Nordone (R) 86.5%$16.9K
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Vladimir Putin 72.5%$15.5K
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Flavio Bolsonaro 98.1%$15.2K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes 2.6%$14.0K
US strike on Mexico?By December 31 9.5%$13.8K
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryLula da Silva <5% 52.5%$13.6K
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?Aleksandar Vučić 57.6%$12.9K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory?By June 30, 2027 10.5%$12.8K
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka?By December 31 29.5%$11.1K
Houthis enter Aden?By December 31 22.5%$10.3K
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela?By December 31 42%$10.1K
Iran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei 84.9%$9.5K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 42.5%$7.9K
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?≤47 39.5%$7.7K
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Marine Le Pen 88.5%$7.3K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes 5.5%$7.3K
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Yes 0.4%$6.5K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 6.5%$6.4K
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Yes 0.4%$5.9K
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?Jean-Luc Mélenchon 94.8%$5.9K
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Democratic 66%$5.8K
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↑ 4.25% 85.3%$5.2K
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 6.5%$4.9K
Will Russia capture Lyman?By December 31 6.5%$3.8K
Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 5.5%$2.8K
Kansas Senate Election WinnerRoger Marshall (R) 68.5%$2.2K
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.25% 58.1%$2.2K
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II?By December 31 16%$1.1K
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerCleitinho Azevedo 86.1%$819
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin?By December 31 7.5%$714
Netanyahu out?By December 31 50.5%$597
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerChris Pappas (D) 85.5%$326
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Saudi Arabia 8.5%$298
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium?By December 31 5.5%$231
Will Hamas agree to disarm?By December 31, 2026 17.5%$190
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory?By December 31, 2026 2.1%$170
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk?By December 31 12.5%$152
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk?By December 31 23.5%$142
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?4 75.9%$124
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?By December 31 3.4%$102
US x Russia military clash?By December 31, 2026 3.5%$89
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes 10.5%$73
Russia nuclear test?By December 31, 2026 5.3%$72
Ukraine election called?By December 31, 2026 9.5%$53
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed?By December 31, 2026 2.2%$40
Macron out?By December 31, 2026 4.6%$34
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk?By December 31 2.2%$9
India strike on Pakistan?By December 31, 2026 13%$9
French election called?By December 31, 2026 5.9%$2
Epstein client list released?By October 31 5.2%$0
Will Tim Walz resign?By December 31 3.1%$0

Geopolitics & World

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Druzkhivka 40%$186.3K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues?Through September 30 96.3%$72.0K
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes 4.5%$69.0K
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization?By December 31 27.5%$55.5K
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Alibaba 90%$38.0K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 5.5%$27.6K
Crude Oil all time high?By December 31 10.5%$24.2K
Iran charges Hormuz fees?By December 31 25%$15.8K
Iran full airspace closure?By December 31 24%$15.1K
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Yes 14.9%$12.8K
Will Russia capture Orikhiv?By December 31 29%$9.7K
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance?By December 31 19.5%$7.7K
US military action against Cuba?By December 31 14.5%$6.1K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran?By December 31 3.4%$5.3K
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen?September 24 77.5%$2.3K
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 5.7%$2.0K
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled?By December 31 14%$1.1K
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?8 65%$14
Israel and Syria normalize relations?By December 31, 2026 8.0%$0

Economy & Fed

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?↑ $95 71.5%$219.2K
Anthropic IPO by __?December 31, 2026 78%$57.9K
Largest Company end of September?NVIDIA 99.4%$46.6K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$1.5T 89%$39.3K
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.1% 87%$32.3K
Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA 75.5%$24.0K
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap$2.0–$2.25T 23.6%$19.6K
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?2 (50 bps) 56.5%$15.9K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?MGM Resorts 28.5%$10.4K
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?↑ $5,000 30%$6.9K
IPOs before 2027?Anthropic 77%$6.9K
OpenAI IPO?By June 30, 2027 57%$6.9K
AI bubble burst?By June 30, 2027 20.5%$6.7K
US recession by end of 2026?Yes 8.5%$6.5K
Fed rate cut?By July 2027 Meeting 48.5%$2.2K
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes 6.5%$1.4K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Anthropic 53.9%$1.3K

Crypto

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?↓ 82,500 65.5%$800.7K
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?↑ 90,000 74.5%$432.6K
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?↑ 3,000 69.5%$261.0K
What price will Ethereum hit in September?↓ 2,600 71.5%$228.6K
What price will Solana hit in September?↓ 110 73%$46.5K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?$50M 84.6%$45.9K
What price will XRP hit in September?↓ 1.40 53.5%$31.3K
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?↑ 100 89%$14.2K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Yes 3.5%$10.4K
What price will Solana hit in 2026?↑ 120 89.3%$8.5K
Bitcoin all time high by ___?December 31, 2026 9.8%$8.0K
What price will XRP hit in 2026?↓ 1.20 49.5%$7.4K
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?December 31, 2026 8.0%$5.3K
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?December 31, 2027 57.5%$4.7K
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?$150M 73.5%$4.5K
Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?$100M 12%$4.1K
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?$200M 98.3%$4.0K
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?$300M 18.5%$1.9K
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?↑ $6 68%$1.8K
Ethereum all time high by ___?December 31, 2026 7.8%$969
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?by December 31, 2027 37.5%$344
Pump.fun airdrop by .?December 31, 2026 22.5%$5
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?↑ 0.30 27.5%$0
MegaETH airdrop?By December 31, 2026 13.5%$0

Sports

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
🗓 Ballon d'Or Winner 2026full event guide$166.6K
🗓 MLB World Series Champion 2026full event guide$81.7K
🗓 F1 Drivers' Championfull event guide$62.4K
🗓 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)full event guide$0
UEFA Champions League: 2027 ChampionBarcelona 22.5%$539.0K
Pro Football: 2027 ChampionLos Angeles Rams 12.5%$423.3K
Bundesliga: 2027 ChampionBayern Munich 83.5%$61.2K
LALIGA: 2027 ChampionBarcelona 78.5%$58.5K
EPL: 2027 ChampionArsenal 48.5%$54.5K
WNBA: 2026 ChampionMinnesota Lynx 45.5%$50.0K
Serie A: 2027 ChampionInter Milan 57.5%$44.7K
WNBA: 2026 MVPA'ja Wilson 86.1%$32.2K
Ligue 1: 2027 ChampionParis Saint-Germain 79.5%$29.2K
NBA: 2027 ChampionOklahoma City Thunder 21.5%$18.3K
NHL: 2027 ChampionColorado Avalanche 11.5%$17.0K
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament WinnerUzbekistan 72.5%$10.6K
MLB: 2026 American League ChampionTampa Bay Rays 30%$10.2K
Pro Football: 2027 NFC ChampionLos Angeles Rams 18.5%$4.8K
NCAA Football: 2027 National ChampionTexas Longhorns 14.5%$2.7K
Pro Football: 2026 MVP WinnerJosh Allen 30%$2.3K
MLS Cup Winner 2026Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.2%$2.0K
Pro Football: 2027 AFC ChampionBuffalo Bills 21.5%$1.8K

Tech & AI

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
Which company has the best AI model end of September?Anthropic 98.5%$89.9K
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?Anthropic 73.5%$14.7K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?1 75%$7.4K
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Anthropic 88.5%$7.1K
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution?By December 31, 2027 81.5%$3.2K
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?Lindsay Clancy 19%$1.7K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?↑3.5k 99.9%+$1.1K

Culture & Entertainment

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes 1.8%$85.2K
Next James Bond actor?Jack Lowden 45.9%$58.6K
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?950 - 960m 99.1%$25.0K
Taylor Swift pregnant?By December 31, 2026 11.5%$6.9K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?Spider-Man: Brand New Day 93.5%$3.5K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?Avengers: Doomsday 49.5%$1.6K
New "Stranger Things" episode released?By March 31, 2027 5.5%$110

Other markets

MarketLeading outcome24h volume
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 2.9%$67.4K

Compare and check

This week's biggest moves · Polymarket vs Kalshi — the same events priced on both exchanges · Polymarket fees · APY calculator · Where Polymarket is available · Polymarket en español · Eleição no Brasil 2026

Use the data

Every market has a free JSON endpoint and an embeddable card. See the developer docs and the odds index JSON. Credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link (CC BY 4.0).

🔔 Free Telegram watchlist of big odds moves

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice.