Proactive macro watch · Post-release settlement update · Release day

August 2026 Jobs Report: 162,000 Jobs Added

The BLS released the August 2026 Employment Situation on Friday, September 4, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET: payrolls rose 162,000, the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July was revised up to +21,000. Polymarket's two event boards converged to the print.

Published July 21, 2026 · Updated September 4, 2026 · Release shipped · Next planned refresh: settlement confirmation (~September 7–8), then pre-release check for October 2

The answer first

The August 2026 U.S. jobs report, released Friday, September 4, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, reported +162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs (preliminary) and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate. Labor force participation rose to 61.6% from 61.4%, average hourly earnings reached $37.75 (+0.3% on the month), and July payrolls were revised up to +21,000 from the initially reported -23,000. At a September 4, 2026 post-release snapshot (~14:03 UTC), both Polymarket events pinned the official outcomes — the 4.1% rate bucket and "add at least 150k" jobs bucket at 99.95¢ each — with about $121,000 in combined volume while formal settlement was still pending. The next jobs report is Friday, October 2, 2026.

Pre-release market snapshot (August 31, 14:05 UTC)

Two active Polymarket event groups were verified open on August 31, 2026 at ~14:05 UTC, four days before the release. The tables below are kept as the pre-release baseline; figures are displayed prices and contract volumes at that moment, not live quotes.

$53,163 combined volume

August Unemployment Rate: $22,239. How many jobs added in August: $30,924. Liquidity was $6,719 and $11,502 respectively — modest boards that can move quickly.

15 open contracts

Nine unemployment-rate buckets (≤3.8% through ≥4.6%) and six payroll-change buckets (lose >50k through add ≥150k). Both events remained open and unclosed.

Rate: 4.1%–4.2% cluster

4.1% traded at 32¢ and 4.2% at 32.5¢ — together about 64.5¢ of displayed YES. The market prices a hold-or-tick-up outcome over a drop below 4.0% (about 18.9¢ combined).

Payrolls: no majority bucket

"Add 0–50k jobs" led at 25.5¢, but the two negative buckets summed to about 28¢ after July's -23,000 print. The board leans modestly positive without conviction.

August Unemployment Rate — displayed board

Outcome bucketYESBid / AskContract volume
4.1%32¢31 / 33$7,024
4.2%32.5¢31 / 34$5,745
4.3%14¢12 / 16$3,480
4.0%13¢12 / 14$3,046
4.4%6.5¢2 / 11$673
4.5%5.5¢1 / 10$479
3.9%4.45¢1.9 / 7$743
≥4.6%1 / 5$510
≤3.8%1.45¢1 / 1.9$551

How many jobs added in August — displayed board

Outcome bucketYESBid / AskContract volume
Add 0–50k25.5¢25 / 26$13,952
Add 50–100k21¢15 / 27$4,266
Lose >50k14.65¢13.5 / 15.8$4,871
Add 100–150k16.9¢14.1 / 19.7$3,361
Lose 0–50k13.3¢9.8 / 16.8$2,926
Add ≥150k3 / 7$1,547
Read the boards correctly. The nine displayed rate buckets summed to 112.4¢ and the six payroll buckets to 96.35¢ at the snapshot — mutually exclusive outcomes do not have to sum to 100¢, so displayed cents are not clean probabilities. Volume is also not probability: the 4.1% bucket carried the most rate-side volume ($7,024) while trading slightly below 4.2%. Snapshots are timestamped; live reads are not.

Official August 2026 results — released September 4

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, September 4, 2026. Figures below come from official BLS data series retrieved September 4, 2026 (~14:00 UTC); payroll estimates are preliminary and subject to revision.

Nonfarm payrolls: +162,000

Total nonfarm employment rose to 159,075,000 (seasonally adjusted, preliminary) from July's 158,913,000 — a gain of 162,000 jobs, versus July's initially reported -23,000.

Unemployment rate: 4.1%

Unchanged for a second straight month (July 4.1%, June 4.2%). Household employment rose 569,000, and the labor force participation rate increased to 61.6% from 61.4%.

July revised up: +21,000

July payroll growth was revised from the initial -23,000 to +21,000 (June 158,892,000, July 158,913,000) — a net upward revision of 44,000 that erases July's negative print.

Average hourly earnings: $37.75

Average hourly earnings for private employees rose about 0.3% on the month (from $37.65 to $37.75, preliminary). The report lands a week before the September 11 CPI release.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics public data series (CES0000000001 nonfarm payrolls, LNS14000000 unemployment rate, LNS11300000 participation, CES0500000003 average hourly earnings), retrieved September 4, 2026 after the 8:30 a.m. ET release. August and July payroll estimates are marked preliminary by the BLS.

Post-release market board (September 4, 14:03 UTC)

Within about 90 minutes of the release, both Polymarket events repriced to the official print and pinned the two winning buckets at the top of the displayed range while still open — formal settlement had not yet been recorded at the snapshot time.

4.1% bucket: 99.95¢

The August Unemployment Rate event traded the 4.1% contract at 99.95¢ with every other bucket at 0.05¢ — matching the unchanged official rate. Event volume reached $45,808 with $172,471 liquidity.

"Add ≥150k": 99.95¢

The payroll event's "at least 150k" contract traded at 99.95¢ after the +162,000 print; the previously favored 0–50k bucket (which held $30,527 of volume) fell to 0.05¢. Volume $75,599, liquidity $44,242.

$121,408 combined volume

Combined volume more than doubled from $53,163 on August 31 to $121,408 on release day, with 15 contracts still displayed across the two events.

Settlement pending

Neither event was recorded as resolved at the 14:03 UTC snapshot (the payroll event lists a September 5 end time). A settlement confirmation check is planned for ~September 7–8.

Post-release displayed boards — top contracts

EventLeading contractYESContract volumeEvent volumeEvent liquidity
August Unemployment Rate4.1%99.95¢$11,134$45,808$172,471
How many jobs added in AugustAdd at least 150k99.95¢$6,415$75,599$44,242
All other 13 displayed buckets0.05¢Both events open; not yet resolved
Convergence, not settlement. These prices show the boards pinned to the two official outcomes roughly 90 minutes after the release; formal resolution is a separate provider step. Compare with the August 31 tables above: a split 4.1%/4.2% cluster and a no-majority payroll board compressed into single-bucket certainty once the print was public.

Official July 2026 report — the baseline, now revised

The August print was initially measured against the July first release (USDL-26-1291), which showed a softening but not collapsing labor market. On September 4 the BLS revised July payroll growth up to +21,000 from the initially reported -23,000. Key data points from the July first release, with the revision noted:

Nonfarm payrolls: -23,000 → +21,000

Initially reported as changed little at -23,000, with declines in local government education (-50,000), retail trade (-19,000), and financial activities (-14,000) offsetting a continued uptrend in health care (+22,000). Revised to +21,000 on September 4, 2026.

Unemployment rate: 4.1%

Changed little from June. The number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. Both measures also changed little over the year. The labor force participation rate was 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage point since January.

Temporary layoffs rose

The number of people on temporary layoff increased by 153,000 to 921,000 in July. Permanent job losers changed little at 1.7 million. Long-term unemployed edged down to 1.8 million (25.5% of all unemployed).

Participation: 61.4%

The employment-population ratio was 58.9%, down 0.5 percentage point since January. People employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.8 million.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary for July 2026 (USDL-26-1291), released August 7, 2026. First-release figures shown; the September 4, 2026 revision lifted July payrolls to +21,000 (series CES0000000001).

Polymarket market resolution: July report

Two Polymarket event groups tied to the July Employment Situation both resolved after the August 7 release. The unemployment event correctly settled the 4.1% bucket, and the payroll event resolved to the negative-jobs bracket.

July Unemployment Rate — RESOLVED

The event resolved to the 4.1% bucket, consistent with the BLS first-release U-3 rate. Rules specified the seasonally adjusted rate in Table A-15, one-decimal precision, and the first release rather than later revisions. The event contained nine outcome markets from ≤3.9% through ≥4.7%.

View resolved event →

How many jobs added in July — RESOLVED

The event resolved to the below-zero bucket ("Will the US lose jobs in July?"), consistent with the -23,000 first-release print. The event had six payroll buckets from negative through 200,000+, with boundary ties assigned to the higher range. Total event volume was approximately $38,000.

View resolved event →

September 4 events: post-release status

Two Polymarket event groups covered the August Employment Situation release. Both remained open with boards pinned to the official print at the September 4, 2026 ~14:03 UTC post-release snapshot; formal settlement was pending. New labor-market events typically appear in the last week of each month for the next release.

August Unemployment Rate — converged

Rules specify the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in BLS Table A-15, one-decimal precision, and the first release — which printed 4.1%. At the September 4 post-release snapshot: nine contracts, $45,808 volume, $172,471 liquidity, 4.1% bucket at 99.95¢; awaiting formal resolution.

View live event →

How many jobs added in August? — converged

Resolves to the change in total nonfarm payroll employment in the August summary (+162,000). Exact boundary ties resolve to the higher bracket. At the September 4 post-release snapshot: six contracts, $75,599 volume, $44,242 liquidity, "add at least 150k" at 99.95¢; awaiting formal resolution.

View live event →

Market inventory is not an official forecast. Event availability, prices, liquidity, and spreads can change. The BLS calendar establishes the release; each contract establishes its own settlement terms.

Remaining 2026 jobs report timeline

August 7 · July Employment Situation — RELEASED
8:30 a.m. ET. Nonfarm payrolls -23,000; unemployment rate 4.1%. Polymarket events for both series resolved correctly.
August 31 · Pre-release market refresh — SHIPPED
Both September 4 events verified open: 15 contracts, ~$53,000 combined volume. Snapshot tables above record the displayed boards four days before the release.
September 4 · August Employment Situation — RELEASED
8:30 a.m. ET. Payrolls +162,000; unemployment 4.1%; participation 61.6%; July revised to +21,000. Both Polymarket events pinned to the print (99.95¢) pending settlement. The report lands one week before the September 11 CPI release and 11 days before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
October 2 · September Employment Situation
8:30 a.m. ET. This starts an October macro sequence that also includes the September CPI release on October 14. One day after the September 30 federal funding deadline — during the 2025 shutdown, BLS data releases were suspended (see the October 1, 2026 government shutdown deadline guide).
November 6 · October Employment Situation
8:30 a.m. ET, three days after the November 3 U.S. midterm election. The data month and political event remain separate resolution contexts.
December 4 · November Employment Situation
8:30 a.m. ET. This is the final Employment Situation publication listed on the BLS calendar for calendar year 2026.
Reference month matters: the September 4 report is called the August Employment Situation because it measures August conditions. A contract that says "September jobs" could mean the report released in September or the September reference month released in October. The written wording must remove that ambiguity.

What the U.S. jobs report actually measures

The BLS Employment Situation is not one number. The agency publishes information from two monthly surveys with different samples and concepts. Treating them as interchangeable can produce a faulty search answer or a settlement mistake.

Establishment survey

The Current Employment Statistics survey covers businesses and government agencies. It produces the widely cited change in total nonfarm payroll employment, plus estimates for hours and earnings.

Household survey

The Current Population Survey measures people and labor-force status. It produces the official unemployment rate, employment, unemployment, and participation measures.

First release

Early payroll estimates can be revised as more reports arrive and seasonal factors are recalculated. A contract may use the initially published figure even when the historical data later changes.

Precision and buckets

Unemployment is commonly reported to one decimal place, while payroll events may use ranges. Boundary language decides whether an exact threshold belongs to the lower or higher bucket.

Jobs-report resolution checklist

1. Name the series

Confirm total nonfarm payroll employment, U-3 unemployment, earnings, participation, or another measure. A familiar headline is not a substitute for the stated series.

2. Match the month

Write down both the reference month and release date. July data released in August is different from August data released in September.

3. Check adjustment

Seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted values can differ. Use only the version named in the contract.

4. Parse every boundary

For ranges, test exact endpoints such as 50,000 or 100,000. Check whether the rules put a tie in the lower or higher bracket.

5. Read the revision rule

Determine whether the first BLS publication controls or whether a later correction, benchmark, or revised release can change settlement.

6. Timestamp market data

Capture bid, ask, depth, volume, and time together. Use the prediction-market odds guide before treating displayed cents as a clean probability.

How the jobs report fits the 2026 macro calendar

Labor data can affect expectations, but it does not mechanically determine inflation or monetary policy. Build a dated evidence map instead of turning one release into a guaranteed outcome.

Inflation sequence

The 2026 CPI release calendar tracks the September 11 CPI release and later monthly inflation data. The July CPI results (Core 0.2% MoM, 2.5% YoY) are now live. Payroll growth and CPI answer different questions.

Federal Reserve sequence

The September FOMC guide maps the September 15–16 meeting. Employment is one input alongside inflation, activity, financial conditions, and Fed communications.

Market-move context

The biggest-movers watchlist can flag repricing after a release, but a large move is a research prompt, not a recommendation or trading signal.

Evidence quality

The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why rules, liquidity, timing, and the comparison benchmark matter when evaluating a forecast.

Frequently asked questions

What was the August 2026 jobs report?

Released Friday, September 4, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET: nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 (preliminary), the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, participation rose to 61.6%, and average hourly earnings reached $37.75 (+0.3% on the month). July payrolls were revised up to +21,000 from the initially reported -23,000.

When is the next U.S. jobs report?

Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, covering September reference-month data. It falls one day after the September 30 federal funding deadline.

What was the July 2026 jobs report?

The BLS initially reported July nonfarm payroll employment changed little at -23,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. On September 4, 2026 the July figure was revised up to +21,000, a net +44,000 swing.

What are the remaining 2026 jobs report dates?

The remaining Employment Situation release dates on the 2026 BLS calendar are October 2, November 6, and December 4, all at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

How did Polymarket markets react to the September 4 jobs report?

Within about 90 minutes of the release, the August Unemployment Rate event traded the 4.1% bucket at 99.95 cents and the payroll event traded "add at least 150k jobs" at 99.95 cents, matching the +162,000 print. Combined volume reached about $121,000. Formal settlement was still pending at the September 4, 14:03 UTC snapshot.

What was Polymarket pricing before the August 2026 release?

At the August 31 snapshot the rate event leaned 4.1%–4.2% (32¢ / 32.5¢) and the payroll favorite was "add 0–50k" at 25.5¢ with the negative buckets near 28¢. The actual +162,000 print landed outside the market's favored cluster, in the "add at least 150k" bucket that traded at just 5¢ four days earlier.

Are payroll growth and the unemployment rate the same statistic?

No. Nonfarm payroll employment comes from the establishment survey, while the unemployment rate comes from the household survey. They cover different populations and can move differently.

Can a later BLS revision change a market result?

Only if the individual rules allow it. The reviewed unemployment events say revisions after the first release do not count; other contracts may use different language.

When will this 2026 jobs report guide be refreshed?

A settlement confirmation check is planned for approximately September 7–8, 2026, followed by a pre-release check ahead of the October 2 release.

Sources and methodology

Methodology: this is a same-URL post-release settlement update of the standing 2026 jobs-report hub, shipped September 4, 2026 within two hours of the 8:30 a.m. ET release. Official figures come from BLS public data series retrieved ~14:00 UTC; all prices, volumes, and liquidity figures are point-in-time Gamma snapshots (August 31 ~14:05 UTC pre-release; September 4 ~14:03 UTC post-release) and are not live data. The next planned update is the settlement confirmation (~September 7–8), then the October 2 pre-release check.