July 2026 CPI Results: Core CPI 0.2% MoM, 2.5% YoY
Official BLS results released August 12, both Polymarket core CPI markets resolved, and the September 11 release is next.
Published July 18, 2026 · Substantially updated August 12, 2026 (post-release) · Next CPI: September 11, 2026 · Next planned refresh: ~September 8, 2026
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released July 2026 CPI data on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month (seasonally adjusted) and 3.4% over 12 months. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year. Both Polymarket July core CPI prediction markets resolved to the matching outcome buckets: 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. The next CPI release is September 11, 2026, covering August reference-month data.
Official July 2026 CPI results published August 12
Headline CPI MoM
+0.1%, seasonally adjusted. Up from −0.4% in June. Shelter accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase; energy declined 1.5%.
Headline CPI YoY
+3.4%, before seasonal adjustment. Down from +3.5% in June. Energy rose 14.7% over the 12 months ending July, while food increased 3.0%.
Core CPI MoM
+0.2%, seasonally adjusted. Up from 0.0% in June. Medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation increased; motor vehicle insurance decreased.
Core CPI YoY
+2.5%, before seasonal adjustment. Down from +2.6% in June. This is the same series family named by the reviewed year-over-year prediction market.
Polymarket core CPI markets: resolution summary
Both July core CPI event groups on Polymarket resolved to the matching outcome buckets after the BLS release. A Gamma API check on August 12, 2026 around 14:00 UTC confirmed all winning buckets traded at 99.95 cents (Yes) and all other buckets at 0.05 cents (No). Markets remained technically open pending official settlement but the pricing reflects a resolved outcome.
Core CPI MoM — 0.2% bucket wins
The 0.2% outcome bucket attracted the highest individual market volume at $56,808, well ahead of 0.3% ($39,842) and 0.1% ($38,444). Total event volume reached $173,068 with $298,764 in liquidity across all seven buckets.
Core CPI YoY — 2.5% bucket wins
The 2.5% outcome bucket won with $19,032 in individual volume. Total event volume reached $139,959 with $331,470 in liquidity across all ten buckets. The 2.4% bucket ($45,352) was the most-traded non-winning outcome, followed by 2.7% ($20,828).
Combined, the two event groups represented roughly $313,027 in cumulative volume and $630,234 in liquidity at the August 12 post-release snapshot — a substantial increase from the $187,336 cumulative volume recorded in the August 9 pre-release check.
What the July print means for the Fed
Annual disinflation continues, slowly
Core CPI YoY edged down from 2.6% to 2.5%, extending the gradual cooling trend. Headline YoY fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Both moves are in the direction the Fed wants to see, but the pace remains well above the 2% target.
Monthly core ticked up
Core CPI MoM rose 0.2% after June's unusual 0.0% reading. This normalisation suggests June's flat print was partly transient rather than the start of a steep disinflation trend. Shelter (+0.1%) and medical care were the main contributors.
Energy keeps diverging
Energy fell 1.5% in July but is still up 14.7% year over year. Gasoline dropped 2.9% monthly but rose 24.6% annually. This energy-price swing affects headline CPI without changing the core trend the Fed watches more closely.
September FOMC context
Before the CPI release, Polymarket's September Fed decision event showed roughly 58% odds of no change and 40% odds of a 25-basis-point cut. The moderate July print is consistent with those odds but unlikely to trigger a dramatic repricing. The next major data point before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting is the August CPI release on September 11.
Remaining 2026 CPI release timeline
8:30 a.m. ET. Headline +0.1% MoM, +3.4% YoY. Core +0.2% MoM, +2.5% YoY. Both Polymarket core CPI markets resolved to winning buckets.
8:30 a.m. ET. Four days before the first day of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. This is the last major inflation print before the Fed decision.
8:30 a.m. ET. A new reference month and a separate contract window from the September release. Falls two weeks after the September 30 federal funding deadline — during the 2025 shutdown the Labor Department suspended BLS data releases (see the government shutdown October 2026 guide).
8:30 a.m. ET, one week after the November 3 U.S. midterm election. Political timing does not alter the CPI series or its source.
8:30 a.m. ET. This is the final CPI publication listed on the BLS calendar for calendar year 2026.
June 2026 baseline (prior month for comparison)
The June release (published July 14) supplies the comparison point for July. These four figures use different seasonal and comparison conventions, so they should not be blended into one generic "inflation number."
Headline CPI, month over month
−0.4%, seasonally adjusted. BLS said the all-items decline was the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, with a 5.7% fall in the energy index the largest contributor.
Headline CPI, 12 months
+3.5%, before seasonal adjustment. This was the all-items change over the 12 months ending June.
Core CPI, month over month
0.0%, seasonally adjusted. "Core" here means all items less food and energy. This was the same series family named by the July month-over-month market.
Core CPI, 12 months
+2.6%, before seasonal adjustment. Down from +2.5% in July, showing the annual core rate fell over the month.
How the two core CPI events differed
One-month change
The month-over-month event used the seasonally adjusted change in core CPI-U from June to July. It asked how much the index changed over one month after the seasonal adjustment specified in the rules. Answer: 0.2%.
Twelve-month change
The year-over-year event used the change in core CPI-U over the 12 months ending July before seasonal adjustment. It did not ask for the one-month figure annualized. Answer: 2.5%.
Same release, different cells
Both events named the August 12 BLS report, but they resolved from different values in that report. A correct answer to one contract did not determine the other.
One-decimal precision
Both rule sets say BLS reports the relevant core measure to one decimal point and that this is the precision used for resolution. More precise private estimates do not replace the published value.
CPI market resolution: eight distinctions that matter
1. CPI-U is specified
The reviewed events use the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. CPI-W, chained CPI, PCE inflation, producer prices, and private inflation estimates are different series.
2. Core is not headline
Both reviewed events specify all items less food and energy. The headline all-items number can move differently and cannot substitute for core CPI at settlement.
3. MoM and YoY use different comparisons
The one-month event compares July with June on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 12-month event compares July with July a year earlier before seasonal adjustment.
4. July is the reference month
The data month is July even though the release date is August 12. Record both fields so an August-release question is not confused with August data due in September.
5. Precision is one decimal
The rule text explicitly ties resolution to BLS one-decimal reporting. A model or newswire carrying more decimals is not the named resolution source.
6. Edge buckets are inclusive
The first and last buckets use "or less" and "or more." Middle buckets are exact one-decimal values. Check the actual group title rather than inferring boundaries from a chart.
7. The official BLS release controls
Both events name the monthly BLS CPI news release and say resolution takes place when the data is released. Commentary, consensus surveys, and market prices are supporting context only.
8. Delay fallback is explicit
If BLS does not release the relevant figure on schedule, the rules allow the market to remain open until the next CPI release time; if the figure is still unavailable, they point to the most recent prior month with available data.
A repeatable CPI research workflow
Verify the release clock
Start with the live BLS schedule, record the reference month, and account for Eastern Time. Do not rely on a recycled calendar graphic.
Name the exact series
Write down CPI population, headline or core, comparison period, seasonal treatment, precision, and official source before opening an order book.
Read every outcome label
List the low edge, exact middle buckets, and high edge. Confirm inclusive wording and whether the market is one neg-risk group or separate binary books.
Timestamp market evidence
Capture bid, ask, spread, depth, volume, liquidity, and time together. Use the prediction-market odds guide before treating cents as a frictionless probability.
Map nearby catalysts separately
The 2026 jobs report calendar and September FOMC guide are useful context, but neither determines the CPI value or resolves these contracts. The October 27–28 Fed meeting guide extends the same calendar beyond September.
Keep the watchlist educational
The biggest-movers tool can flag repricing after the release. A move is a prompt to recheck facts, rules, and liquidity—not a recommendation.
Frequently asked questions
What was the July 2026 CPI report?
The BLS reported on August 12, 2026 that headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year.
Did the Polymarket core CPI prediction markets resolve correctly?
Yes. The Core CPI MoM market resolved to the 0.2% bucket (Yes at 99.95 cents). The Core CPI YoY market resolved to the 2.5% bucket (Yes at 99.95 cents). All other outcome buckets settled at No.
When is the next U.S. CPI report in 2026?
The next scheduled release is Thursday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, covering August 2026 reference-month data.
What are the remaining 2026 CPI release dates?
The remaining scheduled dates are September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10, all at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
How does July CPI affect the September Fed meeting?
Core CPI cooled slightly on an annual basis (2.5% vs 2.6% in June), but the monthly uptick to 0.2% after June's 0.0% suggests inflation is not yet decisively back to target. Polymarket's September Fed decision event showed roughly 58% odds of no change and 40% odds of a 25-basis-point cut before the release; the moderate print is consistent with those odds but does not dramatically shift them.
Do CPI prediction markets resolve on headline or core CPI?
It depends on the contract. The two July events reviewed here specify core CPI-U, meaning all items less food and energy. A headline CPI value cannot be substituted for that series.
What is the difference between core CPI month over month and year over year?
The month-over-month event uses the seasonally adjusted change from the prior month. The year-over-year event uses the not-seasonally-adjusted change over the 12 months ending in the reference month. Both use one-decimal precision.
When will this 2026 CPI guide be refreshed again?
The next planned refresh is approximately September 8, 2026, three days before the September 11 CPI release for August reference-month data.
Sources and methodology
- BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary — July 2026 — official release USDL-26-1378, August 12, 2026. Headline and core values, monthly and 12-month changes, and sub-index detail. Checked August 12, 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
- BLS: Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index — official reference months, release dates, and 8:30 a.m. ET times; checked August 12, 2026.
- BLS: Consumer Price Index Frequently Asked Questions — CPI scope, populations, seasonal adjustment, and methodology context.
- Polymarket Gamma: Core CPI MoM — July 2026 — post-release pricing confirms 0.2% bucket at Yes 99.95¢; $173,068 cumulative volume, $298,764 liquidity; checked August 12, 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
- Polymarket Gamma: Core CPI YoY — July 2026 — post-release pricing confirms 2.5% bucket at Yes 99.95¢; $139,959 cumulative volume, $331,470 liquidity; checked August 12, 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Next refresh: Approximately September 8, 2026, three days before the September 11 release for August reference-month data, or earlier if BLS changes the schedule.