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Updated September 25, 2026 · facts checked against the dated sources listed below
Each winning share pays $1 and each losing share pays nothing, so your profit per share is $1 minus what you paid, including any taker fee. Your return is that profit divided by your cost, and your all-in cost per share is also the break-even probability you need to beat.
When a market resolves, Polymarket's documentation says each winning share redeems for $1, losing shares become worthless and trading stops. In the rare 50-50 resolution, used when neither outcome applies, every Yes and No share redeems for $0.50. You do not have to wait: you can sell before resolution at the best bid or with a limit order at your own price.
See also: Market resolution · 50-50 resolutions
Before fees, the profit if you are right is $1 minus the price, and the loss if you are wrong is the price. Buy 100 Yes shares at 40 cents: you pay $40 and collect $100 if Yes wins, a $60 profit and a 150% return, or lose the $40 if it does not.
Expensive shares return little. At 90 cents, 100 shares cost $90 and win $10, an 11.1% return, so one loss wipes out nine wins. At 10 cents the same 100 shares cost $10 and win $90, a 900% return, but only if an outcome priced at 10% happens.
Polymarket charges takers, whose orders fill against resting orders, a fee of shares × fee rate × p × (1 − p), where p is the price; makers pay nothing, and fees are rounded to five decimal places. On September 25, 2026 the documented rates were 0.07 for crypto; 0.05 for sports, economics, culture, weather and other markets; 0.04 for finance, politics, mentions and tech; and zero for geopolitics. Since an exchange upgrade on April 28, 2026, the fee is charged in USDC on top of the trade rather than taken out of your shares.
In the 40-cent example in a politics market, the fee is 100 × 0.04 × 0.40 × 0.60 = $0.96, so the cost is $40.96, the profit if right $59.04 and the return 144.1%. As a share of the price, the fee equals rate × (1 − p): 3.6% of a 10-cent share at the 0.04 rate but 0.4% of a 90-cent share. Fees apply only to markets created on or after each category's start date, so check the fee on the market itself.
See also: Polymarket fee calculator and rates by category · Maker and taker
A sale at the bid with a market order makes you the taker again, so the same formula applies. If the bid rises to 55 cents and you sell all 100 shares, the fee is 100 × 0.04 × 0.55 × 0.45 = $0.99, you receive $54.01, and your profit is $54.01 − $40.96 = $13.05, a 31.9% return. Selling with a resting limit order avoids the fee but may not fill.
Divide everything you pay by the shares you get: that all-in cost per share is the probability at which the trade breaks even. In the example, $40.96 for 100 shares breaks even at 40.96%, almost a point above the 40% price. If you think the true chance is 50%, the expected profit is 0.50 × $100 − $40.96 = $9.04, about 22% of the cost; if you think it is 40%, the trade loses money on average.
Spread and slippage raise the break-even further, because a market buy pays the ask and a large order climbs through higher asks. Our EV calculator does the expected-value arithmetic, the Kelly calculator suggests a stake from your edge, and the spread calculator adds the cost of crossing the book.
See also: EV calculator · Kelly calculator · Spread and slippage calculator
A return means more when it arrives sooner. A share bought at 95 cents that pays $1 in 60 days returns 5.26%, about 32.0% a year as a simple rate or 36.6% compounded, but only if the favorite wins; the 5-cent discount is the market's price for the chance that it does not.
Some long-dated markets also pay a holding reward: 3.25% a year according to Polymarket's help center page updated June 1, 2026, at a rate Polymarket says can change. These are the mechanics of a single trade, not a forecast; this is educational math, not financial advice.
See also: Polymarket APY calculator
$1 per share minus what you paid and any fee. 100 shares bought at 40 cents in a market with a 0.04 fee rate cost $40.96 and pay $100, a $59.04 profit.
Takers pay shares × fee rate × p × (1 − p), with rates of 0.04 to 0.07 in fee-charging categories as of September 25, 2026 and no fee on geopolitics markets; makers pay nothing.
Your all-in cost per share, price plus fee plus any slippage, read as a probability. A trade has positive expected value only if you believe the chance is higher than that.
No. You can sell at any time before resolution at the best bid or with a limit order; a market sale pays the taker fee.
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