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Polymarket APY Calculator

Market list updated November 7, 2026 · refreshed twice a day

Annualized return turns a Polymarket price into a yearly rate: buy at p, collect $1 if you are right, and the return (1 − p) ÷ p is spread over the days until resolution. Example: a share bought at 95¢ that pays $1 in 60 days returns 5.26% — 32.0% a year simple, 36.6% compounded. The return only arrives if the outcome happens; the discount is the market's price for the risk that it does not.

Annualized return calculator

Return if right—
Annualized (simple)—
APY (compounded)—
Expected APY at your probability—
Fee per share—
Break-even probability—

High-probability Polymarket markets and their annualized return

Favorites priced 85¢ or more that resolve in 7–400 days, ranked by the yearly return you would earn only if the favourite wins. Cost is the best ask plus the taker fee.

MarketSideCostReturn if rightDaysAPYRewards
1win Essence III: WinnerTeam Spirit87.6¢14.20%134480.4%
Taitung County Magistrate Election WinnerWu Hsiu-hua85.5¢16.95%221296.1%
Spain General Election: Almería WinnerPP85.5¢16.95%231142.9%
Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by November 30?↑$610B85.5¢16.95%241017.4%
Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of November?OpenAI85.5¢16.95%241017.4%
What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in November 2026?↑ $29085.5¢16.95%241017.3%
What price will Ethereum hit in November?↓ 2,20085.9¢16.42%24943.0%
Spain General Election: Toledo WinnerPP86.5¢15.63%23936.2%
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in November 2026?↓ $60086.5¢15.63%24838.7%
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in November 2026?↑ $14086.7¢15.37%24806.8%
Spain General Election: PSOE gains seats?No87.5¢14.35%23765.7%
What will the NYT front-page headlines say on Sunday? (November 15)AI / Artificial Intelligence95.2¢5.05%9696.1%
Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by November 30?↑$198B87.5¢14.35%24690.3%
Elon Musk # tweets in November 2026?1000+87.6¢14.20%24674.7%
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Alberto Núñez Feijóo88.4¢13.09%23624.9%
Spain General Election: Albacete WinnerPP88.4¢13.09%23624.9%
Spain General Election: Guadalajara WinnerPP88.4¢13.09%23624.9%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by November 30?↓$1.15T88.4¢13.09%24566.7%
Will Revolut's valuation hit __ by November 30?↑$127B88.4¢13.09%24566.7%
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?↓ $73088.4¢13.09%24566.7%

A high APY usually means real risk or a thin order book, not free money: the price discount is what traders charge for the chance the favorite loses. Educational math, not a recommendation.

Markets paying holding rewards

Polymarket pays holding rewards on positions in these markets — 3.25% a year (Polymarket Help Center, page updated June 1, 2026; the rate is variable). See the official explanation.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the annualized return of a Polymarket share?

Return = (1 − cost) ÷ cost, where cost is the price paid plus any taker fee. Simple annualized = return × 365 ÷ days to resolution; compounded APY = (1 + return)^(365 ÷ days) − 1.

Is buying 95¢ shares on Polymarket risk-free?

No. A 95¢ price means traders see roughly a 5% chance of losing the whole stake. The annualized figure is what you earn only if the outcome happens and the market resolves on time; disputes and delays stretch the holding period.

What are Polymarket holding rewards?

Polymarket pays a reward on positions in a list of long-running markets, sampled hourly and paid daily. The current rate is 3.25% a year (Polymarket Help Center, page updated June 1, 2026; the rate is variable). The markets with rewards switched on are listed on this page.

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