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Polymarket APY Calculator

Market list updated September 23, 2026 · refreshed twice a day

Annualized return turns a Polymarket price into a yearly rate: buy at p, collect $1 if you are right, and the return (1 − p) ÷ p is spread over the days until resolution. Example: a share bought at 95¢ that pays $1 in 60 days returns 5.26% — 32.0% a year simple, 36.6% compounded. The return only arrives if the outcome happens; the discount is the market's price for the risk that it does not.

Annualized return calculator

Return if right
Annualized (simple)
APY (compounded)
Expected APY at your probability
Fee per share
Break-even probability

High-probability Polymarket markets and their annualized return

Favourites priced 85¢ or more that resolve in 7–400 days, ranked by the yearly return you would earn only if the favourite wins. Cost is the best ask plus the taker fee.

MarketSideCostReturn if rightDaysAPYRewards
WNBA: 2026 MVPA'ja Wilson87.3¢14.50%871805.7%
What price will Solana hit in September?↓ 11088.7¢12.69%833086.4%
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Alibaba91.3¢9.50%711139.9%
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerCleitinho Azevedo89.1¢12.23%115227.1%
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerEduardo Paes89.8¢11.38%122952.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues?September 3096.4¢3.73%7541.7%
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No86.1¢16.12%39312.2%
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerChris Pappas (D)86.5¢15.63%40272.1%
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerDarline Graham Nordone (R)87.5¢14.35%40236.3%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Anthropic89.4¢11.87%38193.5%
Taipei Mayor Election WinnerChiang Wan-an86.5¢15.63%67121.8%
Which company has the best AI model end of September?Anthropic98.7¢1.36%7102.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No93.0¢7.53%3998.9%
Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?1500+85.5¢16.95%10077.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No86.0¢16.28%10073.8%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes89.5¢11.74%7670.0%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↑ 4.25%87.6¢14.20%9863.7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No88.0¢13.64%10059.8%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.1%88.5¢12.96%9857.2%
North Carolina Senate Election WinnerRoy Cooper (D)95.2¢5.05%4056.2%

A high APY usually means real risk or a thin order book, not free money: the price discount is what traders charge for the chance the favourite loses. Educational math, not a recommendation.

Markets paying holding rewards

Polymarket pays holding rewards on positions in these markets — 3.25% a year (Polymarket Help Center, page updated June 1, 2026; the rate is variable). See the official explanation.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the annualized return of a Polymarket share?

Return = (1 − cost) ÷ cost, where cost is the price paid plus any taker fee. Simple annualized = return × 365 ÷ days to resolution; compounded APY = (1 + return)^(365 ÷ days) − 1.

Is buying 95¢ shares on Polymarket risk-free?

No. A 95¢ price means traders see roughly a 5% chance of losing the whole stake. The annualized figure is what you earn only if the outcome happens and the market resolves on time; disputes and delays stretch the holding period.

What are Polymarket holding rewards?

Polymarket pays a reward on positions in a list of long-running markets, sampled hourly and paid daily. The current rate is 3.25% a year (Polymarket Help Center, page updated June 1, 2026; the rate is variable). The markets with rewards switched on are listed on this page.

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