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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: October 16, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Crow-Armstrong at 46.5%, followed by Kyle Schwarber at 44.5%, Matt Olson at 0.9%. The market has $3.20M in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 46.5% | +19.5 pts | $751 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 44.5% | -8.0 pts | $50.7K |
| Matt Olson | 0.9% | — | $5.6K |
| Hunter Goodman | 0.5% | — | $48 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $15.1K |
| Junior Caminero | 0.2% | -2.1 pts | $5.8K |
| Ben Rice | 0.2% | — | $3.5K |
| Mike Trout | <0.1% | — | $1.75M |
| Juan Soto | <0.1% | — | $649.4K |
| Brandon Lowe | <0.1% | — | $471.3K |
| CJ Abrams | <0.1% | — | $206.0K |
| Munetaka Murakami | <0.1% | — | $10.7K |
| James Wood | <0.1% | — | $9.5K |
| Aaron Judge | <0.1% | — | $4.7K |
| Shohei Ohtani | <0.1% | — | $3.0K |
12 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $3.20M · 24h volume $1.5K · Liquidity $50.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Pete Crow-Armstrong ■ Kyle Schwarber ■ Matt Olson · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: MLB odds · Sports odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Crow-Armstrong at 46.5%, followed by Kyle Schwarber at 44.5%, Matt Olson at 0.9%. The market has $3.20M in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 16, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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