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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: December 7, 2026
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Carlos Alcaraz at 96.5%, followed by Ben Shelton at 96.3%, Flavio Cobolli at 92.5%. The market has $29.6K in total volume and $403 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 96.5% | +1.0 pts | $268 |
| Ben Shelton | 96.3% | +0.1 pts | $2.9K |
| Flavio Cobolli | 92.5% | — | $1.3K |
| Frances Tiafoe | 77% | — | $641 |
| Arthur Fils | 71% | — | $2.6K |
| Daniil Medvedev | 48.5% | — | $1.5K |
| Rafael Jodar | 39.1% | +1.3 pts | $3.6K |
| Taylor Fritz | 38.5% | — | $1.7K |
| Jakub Mensik | 29.5% | +16.0 pts | $102 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 25.5% | — | $3.1K |
| Alex de Minaur | 16.5% | — | $4.3K |
| Learner Tien | 14% | +9.0 pts | $130 |
| Tommy Paul | 12% | +1.5 pts | $391 |
| Luciano Darderi | 6.5% | +2.0 pts | $146 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 5.6% | — | $316 |
21 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $29.6K · 24h volume $403 · Liquidity $8.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Carlos Alcaraz ■ Ben Shelton ■ Flavio Cobolli · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified player qualifies for the singles main draw of the 2026 Nitto ATP Finals, currently scheduled for November 15, 2026 to November 22, 2026, in Turin, Italy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A player is considered to have "qualified" if they are named to one of the eight (8) singles main-draw spots according to the official ATP source.
If a player qualifies but withdraws before competing, they will still be considered to have "qualified" and this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond December 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the eight-player singles field has not been officially determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the ATP Tour (atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Tennis odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Carlos Alcaraz at 96.5%, followed by Ben Shelton at 96.3%, Flavio Cobolli at 92.5%. The market has $29.6K in total volume and $403 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 7, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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