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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 27, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Patrick Mahomes at 81%, followed by Brock Purdy at 66.5%, Joe Burrow at 65.5%. The market has $20.4K in total volume and $3.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 81% | -1.0 pts | $119 |
| Brock Purdy | 66.5% | — | $647 |
| Joe Burrow | 65.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.1K |
| Jared Goff | 64.5% | — | $338 |
| Dak Prescott | 63% | — | $2.4K |
| Jordan Love | 62% | +9.0 pts | $458 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 58% | — | $2.5K |
| Matthew Stafford | 57% | +5.5 pts | $727 |
| Bryce Young | 56% | -1.5 pts | $986 |
| Drake Maye | 45.5% | — | $579 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 44.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.4K |
| Josh Allen | 36.5% | -7.5 pts | $4.6K |
| Tyler Shough | 34.5% | — | $101 |
| Sam Darnold | 23.5% | — | $465 |
| Justin Herbert | 23.5% | -2.0 pts | $21 |
10 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $20.4K · 24h volume $3.6K · Liquidity $6.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Patrick Mahomes ■ Brock Purdy ■ Joe Burrow · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 30. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count.
If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns the listed player recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: NFL odds · Sports odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Patrick Mahomes at 81%, followed by Brock Purdy at 66.5%, Joe Burrow at 65.5%. The market has $20.4K in total volume and $3.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 27, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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