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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is >$2B at 93.7%, followed by >$2.5B at 31%, >$3.5B at 16.6%. The market has $84.5K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| >$800M (settled) | 100% | +4.7 pts | $55.6K |
| >$1B (settled) | 100% | +3.6 pts | $11.8K |
| >$1.5B (settled) | 100% | +5.5 pts | $9.0K |
| >$1.2B (settled) | 100% | +0.4 pts | $1.1K |
| >$2B | 93.7% | +5.1 pts | $2.7K |
| >$2.5B | 31% | -2.0 pts | $744 |
| >$3.5B | 16.6% | -2.1 pts | $1.2K |
| >$3B | 15.3% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K |
| >$4B | 2.5% | -0.2 pts | $1.2K |
Total volume $84.5K · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $1.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ >$2B ■ >$2.5B ■ >$3.5B · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks
The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026
If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.
If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is >$2B at 93.7%, followed by >$2.5B at 31%, >$3.5B at 16.6%. The market has $84.5K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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