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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: March 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Islam Makhachev at 43.1%, followed by Paddy Pimblett at 18.4%, Ilia Topuria at 4.5%. The market has $204.4K in total volume and $726 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 43.1% | +41.8 pts | $2.4K |
| Paddy Pimblett | 18.4% | +15.3 pts | $15.4K |
| Ilia Topuria | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.4K |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3.9% | -2.4 pts | $3.1K |
| Maurício Ruffy | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $108.8K |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $9.3K |
| Conor McGregor | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $5.4K |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0.8% | -0.1 pts | $36.7K |
| Dan Hooker | 0.6% | — | $11.2K |
| Justin Gaethje | 0.5% | — | $9.6K |
Total volume $204.4K · 24h volume $726 · Liquidity $2.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Islam Makhachev ■ Paddy Pimblett ■ Ilia Topuria · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to face in a UFC bout.
Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place.
Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
If Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: UFC odds · Sports odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Islam Makhachev at 43.1%, followed by Paddy Pimblett at 18.4%, Ilia Topuria at 4.5%. The market has $204.4K in total volume and $726 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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