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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is $200M at 98.3%, followed by $100M at 97.9%, $300M at 96.2%. The market has $2.61M in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 98.3% | +0.1 pts | $62.6K |
| $100M | 97.9% | — | $61.1K |
| $300M | 96.2% | -0.2 pts | $261.9K |
| $500M | 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $889.2K |
| $800M | 78.5% | — | $379.0K |
| $1B | 66.5% | +1.0 pts | $414.1K |
| $2B | 33% | +1.8 pts | $200.3K |
| $3B | 14.9% | +0.7 pts | $106.3K |
| $4B | 8.0% | +0.2 pts | $151.7K |
| $5B | 4.9% | -0.4 pts | $86.7K |
Total volume $2.61M · 24h volume $4.0K · Liquidity $290.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $200M ■ $100M ■ $300M · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Token Launches & FDV odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is $200M at 98.3%, followed by $100M at 97.9%, $300M at 96.2%. The market has $2.61M in total volume and $4.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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