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Updated October 22, 2026 · Category: Crypto · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 22, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Michael Saylor at 50.1%, followed by Anatoly Yakovenko at 49.9%, GCR at 47.2%. The market has $36.3K in total volume and $745 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Saylor | 50.1% | -0.1 pts | $182 |
| Anatoly Yakovenko | 49.9% | -1.1 pts | $124 |
| GCR | 47.2% | +20.4 pts | $365 |
| Javier Milei | 47% | +17.0 pts | $188 |
| Martin Shkreli | 45% | +2.0 pts | $161 |
| light | 45% | +6.7 pts | $47 |
| Guy Young | 43.5% | +16.1 pts | $5.8K |
| Su Zhu | 43.1% | +11.8 pts | $175 |
| Gainzy | 36.8% | +26.1 pts | $141 |
| Jesse Pollak | 35.8% | +0.7 pts | $632 |
| Ansem | 31.4% | -0.1 pts | $4.4K |
| SBF | 25.4% | +0.2 pts | $1.9K |
| CZ | 25.3% | +0.2 pts | $467 |
| ThreadGuy | 21.1% | -23.9 pts | $12.3K |
| thiccy | 12.5% | — | $174 |
5 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $36.3K · 24h volume $745 · Liquidity $1.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Michael Saylor ■ Anatoly Yakovenko ■ GCR · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
“Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed).
Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution.
The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 22, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Michael Saylor at 50.1%, followed by Anatoly Yakovenko at 49.9%, GCR at 47.2%. The market has $36.3K in total volume and $745 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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