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Updated October 8, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 7.0% (No 93%), with $33.3K traded in total and $326 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.0% | -5.5 pts | $33.3K |
| No | 93% | +5.5 pts | — |
Total volume $33.3K · 24h volume $326 · Liquidity $451. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially announces his retirement from club-level professional soccer by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Messi is retiring or indefinitely departing from club-level professional soccer with the intention of not participating in any club competition. The announcement must come from Messi himself or official representatives thereof.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure from club competition intended to be effective within 12 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave club soccer in 2 years," nor "I will not play forever," would qualify).
If Messi retires in a qualifying manner but maintains, renews, or announces his intention to participate in international soccer (e.g., for the Argentina national team), that retirement will still qualify. International soccer participation will have no bearing on this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the named individual or authorized representatives thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Soccer odds · Sports odds
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 7.0% (No 93%), with $33.3K traded in total and $326 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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