Bank of Canada September 2026 Decision
The confirmed September 2 outcome, the final pre-settlement market snapshot, the settlement rules now in force, and the road to the October 28 announcement.
Published August 1, 2026 · Market refresh August 30, 2026 · Decision update September 2, 2026
The answer first
The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%, according to the official press release published on decision day. The Governing Council cited a broadening recovery — second-quarter GDP up 3.3% and a July unemployment rate of 6.4% — against increased upside risks to inflation from high energy prices and new tariffs, and left the policy rate unchanged. The exact Polymarket event was still open and awaiting settlement at the 14:05 UTC final check, with about $95,583 of cumulative volume and its no-change contract displayed at 99.95%. The next scheduled announcement is October 28, 2026. This page records the confirmed decision, the complete outcome inventory with timestamped snapshots, and the edge-case rules that govern settlement.
Bank of Canada September 2026 timeline
The official policy-rate page listed the target for the overnight rate at 2.25% as of this date. That is the verified post-July context for this guide, not a claim about what the September decision will be.
The annual schedule, current target rate, exact event description, five component questions, source hierarchy, rounding rules, and schedule fallbacks were checked. The top-level event and all five markets were active, not closed, and accepting orders at 14:04 UTC.
Canadian inflation, employment, growth, financial conditions, and official communication may change expectations before the announcement. Those inputs can inform forecasts and order books, but none replaces the official September release as the reviewed event's named settlement evidence.
An evidence-floor recheck found the event near, but under, this site's pilot threshold for a standalone refresh, so the update was deferred into the final pre-decision window instead of being published mid-window against weak demand signals.
Three days before the announcement, the official schedule, the 2.25% overnight-rate target, all five market descriptions, active and closed flags, and the rounding, postponement, cancellation, and emergency clauses were rechecked, and a timestamped order-book snapshot was added to this page. The next update follows the September 2 announcement itself.
The official press release announced the Bank held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The release cited second-quarter GDP growth of 3.3%, a July unemployment rate of 6.4%, CPI inflation hovering around 3% (2.2% excluding gasoline), and increased upside inflation risks from elevated energy prices and new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures. The Macklem–Rogers press conference was listed for approximately 10:30 a.m. ET the same morning.
This later date matters to the September event's postponement clause. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or delayed so no decision is announced before the next scheduled announcement begins, the reviewed wording assigns the no-change bracket.
The official calendar lists one more rate announcement after October. It is a separate event and does not alter which decision controls the September contracts.
What the verified September Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Bank of Canada Decision in September? After the September 2 announcement it was still open and not closed at the 14:05 UTC final check, with decision-day activity lifting cumulative event volume to about $95,583 from $77,758 at the August 30 snapshot. The durable structure is the complete set of meeting-specific resolution buckets:
50+ bps decrease
A decrease in the target for the overnight rate that the event classifies in its 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after applying the written rounding method.
25 bps decrease
A smaller qualifying decrease classified as 25 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so 25 basis points equals 0.25 percentage point.
No change
No qualifying change resulting from the specified September announcement, including the cancellation or long-postponement fallback described in the event.
25 bps increase
A qualifying increase classified as 25 basis points under the same announcement boundary and rounding method.
50+ bps increase
An increase placed in the 50-basis-point-or-larger bucket after the contract's classification rules are applied.
Five binaries, one decision
Each outcome is a separate yes/no order book. Displayed YES prices may not add to exactly 100% because spreads, depth, timing, and independent orders can differ.
This event is narrower than a general question about Canadian interest rates, the economy, or where the target will finish 2026. It names one announcement, one target rate, one before-and-after comparison, and one official source hierarchy. Similar-looking rate markets can settle on different dates, baselines, or definitions, which is why the exact event and all five questions must be read together.
September 2 final pre-settlement snapshot (14:05 UTC)
| Outcome | YES (displayed) | Bid / Ask | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 99.95% | 99.9¢ / 100¢ | $56,653 |
| 25 bps increase | 0.05% | — / 0.1¢ | $18,813 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.05% | — / 0.1¢ | $7,812 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.05% | — / 0.1¢ | $7,117 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.05% | — / 0.1¢ | $5,188 |
Event-level totals at the same 14:05 UTC check: $95,583 cumulative volume, $28,109 liquidity, and a decision-day burst of $14,376 of 24-hour volume — against just $58.78 of 24-hour volume at the August 30 snapshot. The no-change contract's displayed price firmed from 99.65% to 99.95% as the announced hold matched the bucket most participants had already priced. Settlement of the market was still pending at this timestamp: the event had not closed, and resolution follows the event's own official-source rules rather than the displayed quote.
August 30 order-book snapshot (14:04 UTC)
| Outcome | YES (displayed) | Bid / Ask | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 99.65% | 99.6¢ / 99.7¢ | $48,399 |
| 25 bps increase | 0.20% | 0.1¢ / 0.3¢ | $11,607 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.15% | 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ | $6,451 |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.25% | 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ | $6,257 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.05% | — / 0.1¢ | $5,044 |
Event-level totals at the same 14:04 UTC check: $77,758 cumulative volume, $11,232 liquidity, and a thin $58.78 of 24-hour volume. The five displayed YES prices sum to about 100.30%, a reminder that five independent order books do not have to add to exactly 100%. Low daily turnover also means a long-shot quote can move on a handful of small orders.
Bank of Canada market resolution: eight rules that matter
1. One policy rate is specified
The event measures the change in the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate. Commentary about bond yields, mortgage rates, inflation, or the Canadian dollar does not by itself answer that precise contract question.
2. Compare immediately before and after
Resolution uses the change resulting from the September announcement relative to the target immediately before it. The verified 2.25% post-July level is current context, not an irrevocably fixed settlement baseline.
3. Use the upper bound if needed
The reviewed rules say that if the specified rate is defined by upper and lower bounds, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. That clause supplies a consistent comparison if a range is used.
4. Small nonzero moves round to 25
An increase or decrease smaller than 25 basis points is treated as a 25-basis-point move. Under the reviewed wording, a 10-basis-point change would not become no change.
5. Larger moves use nearest-25 rounding
Changes greater than 25 basis points are rounded to the nearest 25. An exact tie is rounded away from zero, so a 37.5-basis-point move is classified as 50 basis points.
6. Official information controls
The event names official Bank of Canada information, including the statement or release from the September announcement. Surveys, analyst calls, news reports, and market prices can inform expectations but are not the named resolution source.
7. Emergency changes are excluded
An emergency change that does not result from the specified September announcement does not count under the reviewed wording. This is announcement-specific, not a contract on any policy move before September 2.
8. Schedule fallbacks are explicit
A postponed announcement counts if it occurs before the next scheduled announcement. Cancellation, or a delay past the start of that next announcement, resolves to no change under the wording checked for this guide.
A reproducible research record should preserve the exact event slug, all five question labels, complete description, official source link, active and closed status, accepting-orders flag, and check time. A screenshot of one price does not preserve the target-rate definition, rounding method, or schedule fallbacks.
Why demand peaks on decision day and after
This page was published 32 days before the scheduled announcement so search engines had time to discover and evaluate one stable URL, then refreshed three days out and again on decision day so the same URL meets concentrated decision-week and post-decision intent. The topic was not selected because central banks were in the news: September 2 was independently listed on the Bank of Canada's official annual schedule, and a dedicated five-outcome prediction-market event stayed active from the August 1 baseline through the September 2 final check.
Early-August discovery wave
After the July announcement, intent can shift toward “when is the next Bank of Canada meeting?” and “Bank of Canada September 2026 decision.” Publishing now gives the canonical URL a full month to be crawled before that intent becomes urgent.
Decision-week wave
Attention now concentrates on the five change buckets, the 2.25% baseline, and settlement mechanics. The August 30 refresh updated official context, contract status, and a timestamped order-book snapshot on this URL instead of fragmenting the topic across new pages.
Decision-day and settlement wave
The confirmed hold, the final pre-settlement snapshot, and the settlement mechanics are now recorded on this same canonical URL. Queries like “what did the Bank of Canada decide” and “Bank of Canada September 2026 decision” should find the full decision-day record here rather than on a new page.
Research workflow for the September Bank of Canada decision
Start with the official schedule
Verify September 2 on the Bank of Canada site. Do not infer the decision date from a market end time, an unaffiliated economic calendar, or a social post.
Refresh the policy baseline
The September 2 release confirmed the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The next baseline question belongs to the October 28 announcement: record the target then in force and keep it distinct from the change caused by that announcement.
Read all five questions
Confirm that every outcome carries the same announcement, target rate, source, rounding, postponement, cancellation, and emergency-action wording. One abbreviated outcome label cannot describe the complete event.
Measure the order books
Use the prediction-market odds guide to record spread and depth instead of treating the last trade as an exact probability. Separate binaries can contain apparent gaps.
Compare institutions carefully
The September Fed, September ECB, September Bank of England, and September Bank of Japan guides cover different dates, policy rates, committees, and contract language. One decision does not mechanically determine another.
Separate context from settlement
The U.S. CPI calendar and U.S. jobs calendar help map the global macro attention cycle, but neither is the Bank of Canada event's named resolution source.
Investigate sudden moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can flag a contract for review. It cannot establish whether a move reflects new evidence, thin liquidity, or one order.
Keep probability claims bounded
The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why a quoted probability is evidence to assess, not certainty. No rate outcome or return is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
When is the September 2026 Bank of Canada rate decision?
The Bank of Canada's September interest rate announcement took place on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The next scheduled announcement is October 28.
What did the Bank of Canada decide on September 2, 2026?
The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%, according to the official September 2, 2026 press release.
What did the September prediction market show?
At the final pre-settlement check on September 2, 2026 at 14:05 UTC, the exact Polymarket event remained open with five outcome contracts, about $95,583 of cumulative volume, $28,109 of liquidity, and $14,376 of 24-hour volume. The no-change contract displayed at 99.95% after the announcement, and settlement was still pending.
Which rate resolves the September Bank of Canada market?
The reviewed event uses the change in the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate resulting from the specified September announcement, relative to its level immediately before that announcement. Official Bank of Canada information is the named resolution source.
How are unusual Bank of Canada rate changes classified?
The reviewed rules treat a nonzero change smaller than 25 basis points as a 25-basis-point move. Larger changes are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, with an exact tie rounded away from zero.
Do emergency Bank of Canada rate changes count?
Not under the reviewed wording if the emergency change does not result from the specified September announcement. The event is meeting-specific rather than a general contract on any rate move before September 2.
When will this Bank of Canada September 2026 guide be refreshed?
The post-decision update shipped September 2, 2026. The next review follows confirmed settlement of the September market and the approach of the October 28 announcement, with an immediate interim update if settlement is disputed or the official calendar changes materially.
Sources and methodology
- Bank of Canada press release: Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% (September 2, 2026) — official decision-day release confirming the 2.25% overnight-rate target, the 2.5% Bank Rate, the 2.20% deposit rate, the growth and inflation assessment, and the next scheduled announcement on October 28. Checked September 2, 2026 at 14:03 UTC.
- Bank of Canada: policy interest rate and 2026 announcement dates — official 2.25% target for the overnight rate as of July 15 (unchanged since October 29, 2025) plus the September 2, October 28, and December 9 schedule, and the September 2 Macklem–Rogers press-conference listing. Checked August 30, 2026 at 14:04 UTC.
- Polymarket Gamma: Bank of Canada Decision in September? — exact event status, five open markets, overnight-rate target, official source hierarchy, rounding, emergency-action, postponement, and cancellation rules, plus the August 30 event-level volume, liquidity, and five-bucket order-book snapshot. Checked August 30, 2026 at 14:04 UTC and rechecked September 2, 2026 at 14:05 UTC for the final pre-settlement snapshot (event open, $95,583 volume, $28,109 liquidity, $14,376 of 24-hour volume).
- Public Polymarket event — live surface for current order books and contract text. The snapshot above is timestamped August 30 and is intentionally not presented as live.
Candidate and cannibalization review covered the complete 98-entry blog index and article archive, every existing event hub, the full pre-publication sitemap, proactive state and planned refreshes, current-day publisher output, and the latest local GSC snapshot and watchlist. Exact and semantic scans found no page targeting the Bank of Canada September decision. The nearest pages cover other central banks, each with a different institution, calendar, policy rate, event ID, and primary keyword, so a dedicated Canadian hub is additive rather than cannibalizing. The August 30 pre-decision refresh updated this same canonical URL instead of creating a second one, re-verifying every figure against the live Bank of Canada and Gamma endpoints before it was changed. The September 2 post-decision update again edited this one URL, recording the confirmed 2.25% hold from the official press release and a final pre-settlement market snapshot before any settlement claim was made.