December 2026 Fed Decision: Markets Price a 25 bp Hike for December 8–9
The official December 8–9 dates and the December 9 decision, the year's final dot plot, the post-September 3.75%–4.00% baseline that October can still change, the verified five-outcome Polymarket event with a 25-basis-point hike priced at 74.5¢, the written settlement rules, and the evidence calendar through the announcement.
Published October 6, 2026 · Decision: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 · Next planned refresh: October 29, 2026 (post-October-decision rebase)
The answer first
The Federal Reserve's December 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday–Wednesday, December 8–9, 2026, with the rate decision, statement, and final Summary of Economic Projections of the year due on Wednesday, December 9. The official calendar attaches projections to the March, June, September, and December sessions, so a fresh dot plot accompanies this decision. The target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00% after the September 16, 2026 statement passed a 25-basis-point increase by a 12–0 vote — and the October 27–28 meeting falls in between, so the reviewed December contracts measure from whatever range is in force immediately before December 8. At the October 6, 14:04 UTC check, the exact Polymarket event Fed Decision in December? remained active and open with five rate-change buckets, about $2,673,393 in cumulative volume, $35,905 in 24-hour volume, and $817,735 in liquidity — and its board priced a 25-basis-point increase at 74.5¢ against 22.5¢ for no change, with both cut buckets under two cents. The outcome is unknown. This guide separates the fixed calendar from the changing policy baseline, market prices, and the written rules that control resolution.
December 2026 Fed meeting: dates, baseline and scope
Tuesday–Wednesday, December 8–9
The Federal Reserve's official 2026 FOMC calendar fixes the final meeting of the year. The statement, implementation note, and press conference follow the decision on the second day.
Current range: 3.75%–4.00%
Set by the September 16, 2026 statement's 12–0 vote. That is the baseline today — but October 27–28 can still move it before the December contracts measure.
Projections in December
December is one of the four projection meetings of 2026, so the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot land with the decision — the last set of the year.
Five outcome markets
The verified event covers a decrease of 50+ basis points, a 25-point decrease, no change, a 25-point increase, and an increase of 50+ points in the target's upper bound.
Hike favorite at 74.5¢
At the October 6 snapshot a 25-basis-point increase traded at 74.5¢ against 22.5¢ for no change — while the October board leaned toward a hold at 81.5¢.
$2.7M cumulative volume
At 14:04 UTC on October 6 the active event showed about $2,673,393 cumulative volume, $35,905 in 24-hour volume, and $817,735 in liquidity across five open markets.
One December search can hide four different questions: when the committee meets, what the federal funds range will be at that point, whether new projections appear, and how a prediction market classifies the decision. This page answers each separately so an official date is never mistaken for an outcome forecast, and a market's end time or last trade is never mistaken for the Fed's own calendar.
Official timeline to the December 2026 FOMC decision
The official statement passed 9–3, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan preferring a quarter-point increase. It was released at 2:00 p.m. EDT and said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal.
The exact Polymarket event Fed Decision in December? was created with five contracts asking how much the upper bound of the target range changes at the December 8–9 meeting.
The Committee raised the target range by 25 basis points with a 12–0 vote; the statement went out September 16 at 2:00 p.m. EDT, and the session carried the September projections. The September Polymarket event settled its 25-basis-point increase bucket to Yes at $1.00 the same day. The September guide records the decision and settlement.
At 14:04 UTC the December board priced a 25-basis-point increase at 74.5¢ against 22.5¢ for no change, with $2,673,393 in cumulative volume and $817,735 in liquidity. Companion markets, checked at 14:07 UTC, price a 4.25% year-end upper bound at 64.4¢.
8:30 a.m. ET, the first of the three remaining scheduled CPI prints (October 14, November 10, December 10). The CPI calendar hub tracks the series and its Fed-meeting context.
The two-day session ends with the rate decision and statement on Wednesday, October 28. Whatever it decides sets the level the December contracts measure from — this page's planned refresh follows on October 29.
8:30 a.m. ET. The jobs-report hub records each print and the market reaction around it.
8:30 a.m. ET — the last CPI print before the meeting. Two top-tier releases (this and the December 4 jobs report) remain as scheduled evidence before the decision.
8:30 a.m. ET. The final Employment Situation publication listed on the BLS calendar for 2026, landing four days before the meeting.
The two-day session ends with the rate decision and statement on Wednesday, December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET, together with the year's final Summary of Economic Projections. The reviewed rules measure the change in the target's upper bound caused by this specific meeting.
The market's API window closes at 04:59 UTC, and the November CPI publishes that same morning. The end time is technical plumbing, not the Fed's calendar — the December 9 statement is the resolution evidence.
What the verified December Polymarket event covers
The exact public event reviewed for this guide is titled Fed Decision in December? At 14:04 UTC on October 6 — the publication snapshot — its event-level data showed about $2,673,393 in cumulative volume, $35,905 in 24-hour volume, and $817,735 in liquidity, with all five component markets active, open, and not closed. The five contracts and their boards:
| Outcome (change caused by the December 8–9 meeting) | YES price | Lifetime volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Increase by 25 bps | 74.5¢ | $738,899 | $134,164 |
| No change | 22.5¢ | $595,870 | $192,832 |
| Increase by 50+ bps | 2.95¢ | $366,190 | $135,434 |
| Decrease by 25 bps | 1.25¢ | $532,562 | $162,088 |
| Decrease by 50+ bps | 0.35¢ | $439,872 | $209,631 |
Snapshot: Polymarket Gamma, October 6, 2026, 14:04 UTC. Prices are cents per YES share and move continuously. The five YES prices sum to 101.55¢ — a 1.55¢ overround, which is normal book friction across five simultaneous contracts, not free money. Lifetime volumes show where positions were built; the two cut buckets still hold over $970,000 combined despite trading under two cents.
Reading the favorite is not reading the outcome. A 74.5¢ price says buyers currently pay 74.5 cents for a contract that pays $1 if the upper bound is 25 basis points higher after the December 9 statement — an implied probability, not a promise, and one that two jobs reports, two CPI prints, and the October decision can still reprice.
Resolution rules: what settles this market
The event's written description defines the federal funds rate by the upper bound of the target range — 4.00% today — and says the market resolves to the number of basis points that upper bound changes versus its level immediately prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. Three consequences follow. First, the unit is the upper bound, not the midpoint or the floor. Second, the comparison is before-and-after this specific meeting, so an October move shifts the whole board's baseline rather than settling anything here. Third, the API end time of December 10, 04:59 UTC is a technical window for settlement mechanics — the official statement on December 9 is the evidence the rules point to. To convert any board price into an implied probability for your own notes, the site's fed funds probability calculator does the arithmetic without a trading account.
How the December book fits the 2026 rate path
Three companion contract families — checked at 14:07 UTC on October 6 — frame the same question from different horizons:
- Year-end upper bound ($6,914,434 volume): the What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? event prices a 4.25% upper bound at 64.4¢, 4.00% at 17.5¢, and 4.5%+ at 9.7¢.
- No cuts in 2026 ($53,895,441 volume): the annual rate-path event prices zero cuts at 95.9¢.
- Another hike in 2026 ($571,567 volume, same December 10 horizon): 77.5¢ that at least one more increase lands by then.
Read together with this event's board — a 74.5¢ December hike against an 81.5¢ October hold — the modal 2026 path these separate books sketch is: no change on October 28, then a 25-basis-point increase on December 9 to a 4.00%–4.25% range. That is a description of where prices sit today, not a forecast: each family has different rules and horizons, and none of them settles another. When the October statement lands, every number on this page gets rebaselined — which is exactly when the planned October 29 refresh ships.
December 2026 Fed meeting FAQ
When is the December 2026 Fed meeting?
The Federal Reserve's December 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday–Wednesday, December 8–9, 2026, with the rate decision, statement, and press conference due on Wednesday, December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET. The session also carries the final Summary of Economic Projections of 2026, including the dot plot.
What does Polymarket price for the December 2026 Fed decision?
At 14:04 UTC on October 6, 2026, the five-outcome event priced a 25-basis-point increase at 74.5¢, no change at 22.5¢, a 50+ basis-point increase at 2.95¢, a 25-basis-point decrease at 1.25¢, and a 50+ basis-point decrease at 0.35¢, with $2,673,393 in cumulative volume and $817,735 in liquidity. Prices move as data lands.
What is the federal funds rate going into the December meeting?
The target range is 3.75%–4.00% as of October 6, 2026, set by the September 16 statement's 12–0 vote. The October 27–28 decision falls in between, so the December contracts measure from whatever range is in force immediately before the December 8–9 meeting — not automatically from today's range.
How does the December Fed market resolve?
The event resolves to the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range caused by the December 8–9 meeting versus its level immediately before it, under the market's written rules. The API end time of December 10, 04:59 UTC is technical; the official Federal Reserve statement is the resolution evidence.
Does a December hike mean the year-end rate is 4.00%–4.25%?
If the upper bound rose from 4.00% to 4.25% at this meeting and nothing else changed, yes. A separate Polymarket contract family asks where the upper bound will sit at the end of 2026 — its 4.25% bucket traded at 64.4¢ on October 6 — but that is a different contract with a December 31 horizon, not this event's settlement.
When is this guide refreshed?
A planned refresh follows the October 28 decision (around October 29), because it rebaselines every number on this page; another follows in the T-14 window from November 24, plus a decision-day update on December 9 and a settlement record after the event closes.
Sources and verification
- Federal Reserve: 2026 FOMC calendar — official December 8–9, 2026 meeting dates and the projection markers that include December. Checked October 6, 2026.
- September 16, 2026 FOMC statement — the 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75%–4.00% target range with a 12–0 vote; the baseline the October meeting inherits and the December contracts measure from if October holds. Verified live October 6, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: Fed Decision in December? — exact event status, five open markets, prices, volumes, and liquidity. Checked October 6, 2026 at 14:04 UTC.
- Public Polymarket event — live surface for current order books and the full contract text. Verified reachable October 6, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: year-end 2026 rate event and the annual rate-path event — companion context only, checked October 6, 2026 at 14:07 UTC.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2026 release schedule — the October 14 and November 10 CPI releases and the November 6 and December 4 employment situations in the evidence window, cross-checked against this site's CPI and jobs calendar hubs.
The October 6 publication run reviewed the complete 152-entry blog archive, all 28 existing event hubs, the live sitemap, the proactive queue and its planned refreshes (Nobel October 8, World Series October 11, Ballon d'Or / October Fed / CPI October 12, F1 October 13, ECB October 14, BoE and BoJ October 15, Brazil October 19), and the latest local GSC snapshot. Exact and semantic scans found no page targeting the December 8–9 decision: the October hub owns the nearer meeting, the September hub is a settled archive, and the evergreen odds surfaces are not dated guides. The new URL fills a distinct dated intent 64 days ahead of the decision, with demand evidence at the pilot floor — $2.67M cumulative volume, $35,905 in 24-hour volume, and $817,735 in liquidity at the snapshot. Three contextual inbound links were added from the October Fed guide's timeline, the jobs-report hub's timeline, and the CPI hub's timeline, plus the events index listing.