Live Polymarket winner markets, 24-hour moves, Golden Boot odds and the knockout timeline — June 11 to July 19, 2026.
to the July 19 final · snapshot refreshed 2026-06-12 19:15 UTC
Polymarket currently prices Spain near 16.4%, France near 16.1%, and Portugal near 10.8% as the leading World Cup 2026 odds. Spain sits on top of the winner market at 16.4% implied probability, with about $115.1M traded across winner markets in the last 24 hours.
Top winner markets re-poll roughly every 30 seconds while this page is open. Ad-blockers may pause updates.
| # | Team | Implied odds | 24h move | 24h volume | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | 16.4% | ▼ -0.5pp | $2.0M | market ↗ |
| 2 | 🇫🇷 France | 16.1% | — | $1.7M | market ↗ |
| 3 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | 10.8% | ▼ -0.4pp | $2.1M | market ↗ |
| 4 | 🏴 England | 10.1% | ▼ -0.5pp | $1.6M | market ↗ |
| 5 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 8.3% | ▼ -0.3pp | $1.5M | market ↗ |
| 6 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 7.8% | ▼ -1.0pp | $2.3M | market ↗ |
| 7 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 5.1% | — | $2.4M | market ↗ |
| 8 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 4.5% | ▼ -0.1pp | $2.8M | market ↗ |
| 9 | 🇳🇴 Norway | 2.5% | ▲ +0.1pp | $3.1M | market ↗ |
| 10 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 2.1% | ▲ +0.4pp | $3.6M | market ↗ |
| 11 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | 2.1% | — | $2.3M | market ↗ |
| 12 | 🇨🇴 Colombia | 1.8% | — | $1.7M | market ↗ |
| 13 | 🇲🇦 Morocco | 1.6% | — | $1.7M | market ↗ |
| 14 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 1.4% | ▲ +0.1pp | $2.9M | market ↗ |
| 15 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 1.4% | ▼ -0.3pp | $3.6M | market ↗ |
| 16 | 🇺🇸 USA | 1.1% | — | $2.7M | market ↗ |
| 17 | ⚽ Turkiye | 1.1% | ▼ -0.1pp | $2.3M | market ↗ |
| 18 | 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 0.9% | — | $4.0M | market ↗ |
| 19 | 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 0.9% | — | $3.0M | market ↗ |
| 20 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | 0.9% | — | $2.9M | market ↗ |
Implied odds = YES share price from the Polymarket "World Cup Winner" event. Snapshot 2026-06-12 19:15 UTC.
| # | Player | Implied odds | 24h volume | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian Mbappe | 15.5% | $28K | market ↗ |
| 2 | Harry Kane | 13.5% | $15K | market ↗ |
| 3 | Mikel Oyarzabal | 9.5% | $6K | market ↗ |
| 4 | Erling Haaland | 8.5% | $26K | market ↗ |
| 5 | Michael Olise | 6.3% | $30K | market ↗ |
| 6 | Lamine Yamal | 5.2% | $11K | market ↗ |
| 7 | Lionel Messi | 5.1% | $24K | market ↗ |
| 8 | Julian Alvarez | 4.9% | $13K | market ↗ |
Every team market resolves YES if that team lifts the trophy. A YES price of 0.17 implies roughly a 17% market-implied probability. Because traders buy and sell against each other, prices react to results within minutes — faster than most published bookmaker lines, and without a built-in bookmaker margin on the displayed price.
A practical reading checklist:
New to prediction markets? Start with how prediction market odds work and how accurate prediction markets actually are.
The current Polymarket snapshot prices Spain near 16.4%, France near 16.1%, and Portugal near 10.8% as the leading World Cup 2026 winner odds. Prices are market-implied probabilities from real order flow (about $115.1M traded in the last 24 hours across winner markets), not fixed bookmaker lines — they move with every match.
The static snapshot regenerates several times a day from the Polymarket Gamma API (last refresh 2026-06-12 19:15 UTC), and the live cards at the top of the page re-poll prices roughly every 30 seconds while the page is open.
Each team has a YES share priced between 0 and 1. A price of 0.17 implies roughly a 17% market-implied chance of winning the tournament. Unlike bookmaker odds there is no built-in margin on the displayed price, though spread and liquidity still matter before you treat a price as tradable.
Bookmakers bake a margin (vig) into every line and adjust slowly to balance their book. Prediction market prices come from traders buying and selling against each other, so they typically react to goals, injuries and eliminations within minutes and sum closer to 100% across all outcomes.
The tournament runs June 11 – July 19, 2026 across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The group stage finishes June 27, knockout rounds run from late June, and the final is scheduled for July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in the New York / New Jersey area.