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Implied probability

What is implied probability?

The implied probability is the chance of an outcome that a price suggests. On a contract that pays $1, a price of 35 cents implies about a 35% chance, before fees and the bid-ask spread.

On Polymarket

Polymarket shows prices in cents; this site reads them as percentages. Converting sportsbook odds into the same scale lets you compare the two.

👉 Sportsbook odds to Polymarket converter

Prediction market · Calibration · Bid-ask spread

Frequently asked questions

How does Implied probability work on Polymarket?

Polymarket shows prices in cents; this site reads them as percentages. Converting sportsbook odds into the same scale lets you compare the two.

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