A forecaster or market is well calibrated when outcomes it rates at 70% happen about 70% of the time, and so on for every level. Calibration is checked by grouping forecasts into bands and comparing them with what happened.
This site's accuracy study checks Polymarket's calibration on about 2,000 resolved markets, a month, a week and a day before close.
Brier score · Favorite-longshot bias · Implied probability
This site's accuracy study checks Polymarket's calibration on about 2,000 resolved markets, a month, a week and a day before close.
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All terms · Polymarket odds today