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Updated October 20, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 64.5%, followed by Kylian Mbappé at 24.5%, Lionel Messi at 6.6%. The market has $36.6K in total volume and $36.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 64.5% | — | $22.6K |
| Kylian Mbappé | 24.5% | — | $1.1K |
| Lionel Messi | 6.6% | — | $1.4K |
| Rodri | 4.9% | — | $918 |
| Harry Kane | 2.1% | — | $870 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 1.4% | — | $489 |
| Erling Haaland | 1.1% | — | $569 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.9% | — | $1.1K |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.9% | — | $598 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.9% | — | $1.4K |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.8% | — | $1.0K |
| Michael Olise | 0.7% | — | $507 |
| Declan Rice | 0.7% | — | $1.1K |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.5% | — | $1.2K |
| Vitinha | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
14 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $36.6K · 24h volume $36.6K · Liquidity $164.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Lamine Yamal ■ Kylian Mbappé ■ Lionel Messi · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Soccer odds · Awards odds · Sports odds
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 64.5%, followed by Kylian Mbappé at 24.5%, Lionel Messi at 6.6%. The market has $36.6K in total volume and $36.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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