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Updated October 20, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Rodri at 73% (Messi 27%), with $24.2K traded in total and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodri | 73% | +4.5 pts | $24.2K |
| Messi | 27% | -4.5 pts | — |
Total volume $24.2K · 24h volume $4.9K · Liquidity $5.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Rodri ■ Messi · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Rodri" if Rodri finishes higher than Lionel Messi in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Messi" if Lionel Messi finishes higher than Rodri.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Soccer odds · Awards odds · Sports odds
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Rodri at 73% (Messi 27%), with $24.2K traded in total and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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