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Updated October 2, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 98.5%, followed by Rodri at 97%, Lionel Messi at 96.4%. The market has $23.5K in total volume and $11.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 98.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K |
| Rodri | 97% | +0.1 pts | $42 |
| Lionel Messi | 96.4% | +0.9 pts | $807 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 96% | +0.1 pts | $92 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 91% | +9.0 pts | $1.7K |
| Michael Olise | 89% | — | $875 |
| Erling Haaland | 81% | +9.5 pts | $602 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 77% | +2.5 pts | $1.6K |
| Jude Bellingham | 56% | -0.5 pts | $97 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 38.5% | +27.5 pts | $647 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 36.5% | +14.0 pts | $3.1K |
| Declan Rice | 30% | -3.5 pts | $5.4K |
| Pau Cubarsi | 27.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.0K |
| Luis Diaz | 10% | -7.0 pts | $467 |
| Ferran Torres | 8.5% | +0.5 pts | $272 |
11 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $23.5K · 24h volume $11.0K · Liquidity $37.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Lamine Yamal ■ Rodri ■ Lionel Messi · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 98.5%, followed by Rodri at 97%, Lionel Messi at 96.4%. The market has $23.5K in total volume and $11.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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