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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 24.5%, followed by Kylian Mbappé at 21.5%, Raphinha at 12.5%. The market has $25.7K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 24.5% | — | $3.1K |
| Kylian Mbappé | 21.5% | — | $2.6K |
| Raphinha | 12.5% | — | $1.7K |
| Michael Olise | 10.3% | -0.1 pts | $1.6K |
| Erling Haaland | 5.8% | -0.1 pts | $705 |
| Desire Doue | 5.0% | — | $2.2K |
| Harry Kane | 4.6% | — | $1.1K |
| Jude Bellingham | 4.5% | +0.2 pts | $1.0K |
| Declan Rice | 3.4% | — | $620 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 3.0% | — | $469 |
| Vitinha | 2.5% | — | $976 |
| Rayan Cherki | 2.3% | -2.2 pts | $2.6K |
| Julian Alvarez | 2.0% | -0.1 pts | $447 |
| Bukayo Saka | 1.8% | +1.1 pts | $587 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 1.8% | — | $417 |
13 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $25.7K · 24h volume $2.3K · Liquidity $975.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Lamine Yamal ■ Kylian Mbappé ■ Raphinha · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the player who wins the Ballon d'Or award for the 2027 Ballon d'Or.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by France Football and UEFA rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2027 Ballon d'Or is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 24.5%, followed by Kylian Mbappé at 21.5%, Raphinha at 12.5%. The market has $25.7K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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