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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 26.5% (No 73.5%), with $21.3K traded in total and $2.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26.5% | -2.5 pts | $21.3K |
| No | 73.5% | +2.5 pts | — |
Total volume $21.3K · 24h volume $2.1K · Liquidity $15.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gyanesh Kumar ceases to be Chief Election Commissioner of India for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gyanesh Kumar's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gyanesh Kumar, the Election Commission of India, and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 26.5% (No 73.5%), with $21.3K traded in total and $2.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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