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Updated September 23, 2026 · 99 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026 at 18:01 UTC, Polymarket lists 99 live Politics markets with $7.83M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will the US confirm that aliens exist? (By December 31 3.5%), followed by Brazil Presidential Election (Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9%), US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%).
Every live political market on Polymarket: US and world elections, governments, leaders, courts and policy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist? | By December 31 3.5% | -0.3 pts | $502.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election | Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9% | -0.2 pts | $464.5K | Oct 4, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By December 31 61.9% | -2.5 pts | $458.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 14.4% | +0.8 pts | $338.2K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US? | By December 31 99.9%+ | +0.2 pts | $328.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Los Angeles Mayoral Election | Nithya Raman 58% | +15.8 pts | $326.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 20.6% | — | $311.5K | Jan 21, 2029 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026? | 200-219 44.5% | +21.0 pts | $307.0K | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 20.5% | -4.5 pts | $275.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18.2% | — | $262.3K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through September 25 97.4% | -0.5 pts | $231.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 38.4% | — | $190.0K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13.5% | -1.0 pts | $183.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 52.8% | -0.3 pts | $172.2K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 65.5% | — | $161.2K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 65.5% | -6.0 pts | $140.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By October 31 74.8% | -10.7 pts | $128.6K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner | Mary Peltola 76.5% | -4.5 pts | $124.5K | Aug 1, 2027 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 51.2% | — | $123.6K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 11.5% | — | $119.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 58.6% | +0.1 pts | $117.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026? | 180-199 23.5% | +8.0 pts | $117.3K | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 92.5% | — | $116.5K | Jan 5, 2027 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes 6.2% | +0.4 pts | $115.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 17.5% | — | $101.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | Yes 25.5% | -18.0 pts | $100.3K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026? | 200-219 19.5% | -1.0 pts | $99.9K | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 72.5% | +1.5 pts | $88.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 78% | +48.5 pts | $83.7K | Jun 23, 2027 |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 72.5% | — | $79.6K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by September 30? | Yes 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $73.0K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany? | By December 31, 2026 13% | -1.5 pts | $59.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place | Flávio Bolsonaro 70.5% | +1.0 pts | $52.6K | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Yes 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $50.6K | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden | Magdalena Andersson 87.5% | +0.5 pts | $42.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next Prime Minister of Romania? | Sorin Grindeanu 41.1% | +10.8 pts | $41.6K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Texas Governor Election Winner | Greg Abbott (R) 72.5% | -6.9 pts | $39.2K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes 2.1% | -1.1 pts | $37.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Yemen ceasefire continues? | Through September 22 98.6% | -0.7 pts | $36.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 4.0% | — | $36.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
59 smaller markets are not shown; all 99 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Trump (111) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (296) · Senate Races (128) · Governor Races (88) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · World Elections (169) · Brazil (100) · France (36) · Germany (22) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (100)
As of September 23, 2026 at 18:01 UTC, Polymarket lists 99 live Politics markets with $7.83M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will the US confirm that aliens exist? (By December 31 3.5%), followed by Brazil Presidential Election (Flávio Bolsonaro 58.9%), US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%).
99 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Politics markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/politics/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Politics odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/politics/">Politics odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/politics.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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