Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated November 9, 2026 · 78 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 78 live Politics markets with $8.62M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 (Jon Ossoff 25.9%), followed by US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 66.5%), Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 45.6%).
Every live political market on Polymarket: US and world elections, governments, leaders, courts and policy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🇪🇸 Versión en español · 🇧🇷 Versão em português
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 25.9% | -0.3 pts | $845.6K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 66.5% | +1.0 pts | $813.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 45.6% | +0.6 pts | $750.7K | Apr 19, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 12.5% | +2.0 pts | $550.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 17.8% | -0.7 pts | $380.1K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist? | By December 31 1.4% | -0.8 pts | $374.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026? | 260-279 39.2% | +16.3 pts | $327.4K | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 23% | — | $310.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 94.1% | +2.6 pts | $309.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) | December 31 79.5% | — | $302.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 32.1% | -3.4 pts | $264.4K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 7 - November 9, 2026? | 40-64 69.5% | +52.0 pts | $253.9K | Nov 9, 2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 43.5% | +9.0 pts | $210.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? | Alberto Núñez Feijóo 92.5% | +3.0 pts | $204.1K | Nov 30, 2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? | By November 30 28.5% | +7.0 pts | $146.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 92% | +0.4 pts | $144.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $128.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026? | 260-279 17.5% | +7.0 pts | $124.5K | Nov 13, 2026 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 2.1% | -0.8 pts | $116.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 66.5% | -1.0 pts | $112.8K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Next Press Secretary? | Anna Kelly 12.5% | +1.0 pts | $108.7K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 6.5% | -2.0 pts | $102.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Argentina Presidential Election Winner | Javier Milei 44.5% | — | $95.5K | Oct 25, 2027 |
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden | Ulf Kristersson 56% | +2.6 pts | $92.3K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 39.5% | -5.5 pts | $86.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 30.5% | +2.0 pts | $84.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? | Pete Hegseth 40% | +6.5 pts | $78.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached? | By June 30, 2027 79% | +6.0 pts | $76.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 2.8% | +0.2 pts | $75.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | None before 2027 52.5% | -5.0 pts | $70.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Su Chiao-hui 64.5% | +4.5 pts | $67.1K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 2.4% | -0.7 pts | $65.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| US imports Russian diesel? | By March 31 32% | +11.0 pts | $59.1K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues? | Through November 6 99.1% | +0.3 pts | $54.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Dilution of Iran's Uranium 10.5% | +1.0 pts | $51.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes 4.2% | -2.0 pts | $48.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets November 10 - November 17, 2026? | 280-299 12.5% | +1.0 pts | $47.5K | Nov 17, 2026 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 87.5% | — | $43.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 9.0% | -0.5 pts | $40.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31? | Yes 13% | -1.0 pts | $37.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
38 smaller markets are not shown; all 78 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Politics markets move — free Telegram watchlist
How these markets work: Yes/No markets · Mention markets · Approval rating markets · Long-dated markets.
Kim Kardashian · LeBron James · Tim Walz · Zohran Mamdani · Oprah Winfrey · Bernie Sanders · Chelsea Clinton · Andrew Yang · Gavin Newsom · Michelle Obama · Hunter Biden · Hillary Clinton · George Clooney · Beto O’Rourke · Phil Murphy
Trump (117) · 2028 Presidential Election (47) · 2026 Midterms (3) · Senate Races (18) · Governor Races (0) · House Races (0) · Supreme Court (45) · World Elections (117) · Brazil (26) · France (42) · Germany (15) · United Kingdom (23) · Canada (36) · Mexico (62)
As of November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 78 live Politics markets with $8.62M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 (Jon Ossoff 25.9%), followed by US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 66.5%), Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 45.6%).
78 live markets as of November 9, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Politics markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/politics/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Politics odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/politics/">Politics odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/politics.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
Markdown for READMEs and newsletters:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/politics/)
Polymarket View, “Politics odds on Polymarket”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/politics/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog