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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No vote at 96.9%, followed by <215 at 1.9%, 215-219 at 1.3%. The market has $49.9K in total volume and $14.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No vote | 96.9% | +0.9 pts | $19.1K |
| <215 | 1.9% | -0.4 pts | $6.8K |
| 215-219 | 1.3% | -1.1 pts | $5.1K |
| 240+ | 1.1% | +0.8 pts | $5.4K |
| 220-224 | 0.6% | -0.4 pts | $5.1K |
| 225-229 | 0.5% | -0.4 pts | $3.1K |
| 235-239 | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| 230-234 | 0.4% | — | $2.6K |
Total volume $49.9K · 24h volume $14.7K · Liquidity $188.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No vote ■ <215 ■ 215-219 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered.
A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held.
The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered.
If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No vote at 96.9%, followed by <215 at 1.9%, 215-219 at 1.3%. The market has $49.9K in total volume and $14.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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