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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 4, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 255-259 at 33%, followed by 244 or fewer at 19%, 250-254 at 19%. The market has $21.5K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 255-259 | 33% | — | $3.5K |
| 244 or fewer | 19% | -9.0 pts | $5.7K |
| 250-254 | 19% | +1.0 pts | $4.0K |
| 245-249 | 18.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.8K |
| 260-264 | 2.9% | — | $2.1K |
| 270-274 | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $3.1K |
| 275-279 | 0.2% | — | $565 |
| 265-269 | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $430 |
| 280 or more | 0.1% | — | $382 |
Total volume $21.5K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $51.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 255-259 ■ 244 or fewer ■ 250-254 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress.
This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House.
A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 255-259 at 33%, followed by 244 or fewer at 19%, 250-254 at 19%. The market has $21.5K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 4, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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