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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 20, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 12.5% to 15% at 44.5%, followed by 15% to 17.5% at 26.5%, 10% to 12.5% at 25.5%. The market has $25.9K in total volume and $2.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5% to 15% | 44.5% | +3.0 pts | $9.7K |
| 15% to 17.5% | 26.5% | +12.5 pts | $4.7K |
| 10% to 12.5% | 25.5% | -11.0 pts | $5.4K |
| <10% | 1.1% | +0.7 pts | $3.6K |
| 17.5%+ | 0.2% | +0.2 pts | $2.3K |
Total volume $25.9K · 24h volume $2.8K · Liquidity $7.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 12.5% to 15% ■ 15% to 17.5% ■ 10% to 12.5% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci procedure growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 12.5% to 15% at 44.5%, followed by 15% to 17.5% at 26.5%, 10% to 12.5% at 25.5%. The market has $25.9K in total volume and $2.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 20, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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