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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 5, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑$1.5T at 89%, followed by ↑$1.75T at 81.5%, ↑$2.0T at 67%. The market has $5.10M in total volume and $39.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$1.25T (settled) | 100% | +1.3 pts | $265.0K |
| ↑$1.1T (settled) | 100% | +3.6 pts | $125.0K |
| ↑$1.0T (settled) | 100% | +2.4 pts | $112.0K |
| ↑$1.5T | 89% | +0.5 pts | $223.1K |
| ↑$1.75T | 81.5% | +0.5 pts | $626.6K |
| ↑$2.0T | 67% | -5.5 pts | $609.5K |
| ↑$2.5T | 40.5% | -3.0 pts | $427.6K |
| ↑$3.0T | 24.5% | — | $1.29M |
| ↑$4.0T | 5.8% | -1.5 pts | $820.3K |
| ↑$5.0T | 5.5% | — | $340.3K |
| ↓$800B | 3.0% | +0.2 pts | $136.5K |
| ↓$700B | 2.9% | -0.1 pts | $72.9K |
| ↓$600B | 2.1% | -0.3 pts | $47.4K |
Total volume $5.10M · 24h volume $39.3K · Liquidity $346.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↑$1.5T ■ ↑$1.75T ■ ↑$2.0T · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑$1.5T at 89%, followed by ↑$1.75T at 81.5%, ↑$2.0T at 67%. The market has $5.10M in total volume and $39.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 5, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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