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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 10, 2027
As of October 1, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 10.5%. The market has $119.0K in total volume and $669 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 10.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.3K |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $58.7K |
| By March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $34.6K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $17.3K |
| By July 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.1K |
| By September 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $2.0K |
Total volume $119.0K · 24h volume $669 · Liquidity $944. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 1, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 10.5%. The market has $119.0K in total volume and $669 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 10, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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